高亚洲地区冰崩灾害的研究进展

在全球气候变化的背景下,冰崩灾害极有可能成为人类面临的新常态。特别是在高亚洲地区,冰崩灾害事件严重威胁"亚洲水塔"的命运和"第三极"的生态安全。因此,研究冰崩灾害事件对于保障"一带一路"国家战略的顺利实施和保护"一带一路"沿线国家的生产与生存环境具有重要的现实意义。通过梳理历史上有记录的几次冰崩灾害事件,系统介绍冰崩的发生过程;再从冰崩体的物质组成、冰崩体的运动特征、冰崩发生的可能原因以及冰崩的影响等方面总结了冰崩的研究内容;重点阐述了冰崩的研究方法;最后讨论了当前冰崩研究存在的问题,并从冰崩研究方法等角度展望了未来冰崩灾害事件的研究方向。     

珠穆朗玛峰自然保护区湖泊动态及对区域气候变化的响应

利用Landsat卫星影像,采用面向对象分类方法提取珠穆朗玛峰自然保护区湖泊信息,分析了湖泊动态及对区域气候变化的响应关系。结果表明：（1）2015年保护区湖泊总面积为489.07 km²,构造湖、河成湖、冰川湖分别占总面积的77.3%、2.6%、20.1%。（2）1975-2015年,保护区内各类湖泊面积变化速率不同,冰川湖最大（1.05 km²·a^-1）,构造湖次之（-0.85 km²·a^-1）,河成湖最稳定（0.013 km²·a^-1）;保护区南坡冰川湖面积变化速率（0.53 km²·a^-1）略大于北坡（0.52 km²·a^-1）。（3）北坡构造湖、河成湖对区域气候的响应呈阶段性变化规律,1975-2000年珠峰地区气候呈暖湿化趋势,2000年构造湖、河成湖面积达到峰值,两类总计增加22.8 km²;2000-2015年转变为显著的暖干气候,构造湖、河成湖面积均呈减少趋势,总共减少57.16 km²。随着区域气候的变暖,冰川湖总面积不断扩大,近40年间冰川湖面积累计增加43.06 km²。（4）灰色关联度分析显示,年极端低温对构造湖面积变化影响最显著,年均气温对冰川湖起主导作用,年均相对湿度对河成湖影响最大。较其他气候因子而言,降水量对各类湖泊面积变化的影响均最小。     

活动断裂带岩石的变形机制和摩擦性质—以圣·安德列斯断层为例

岩石的变形机制和力学性质对认识活动断裂带的孕震机制和发震过程都具有重要意义。圣·安德列斯（San Andreas）转换断层是太平洋板块与北美板块的构造边界,也是重要的地震活动带,总结了美国南加州地震中心对圣·安德列斯断层钻孔断层岩的研究进展。对断层泥的高速摩擦实验发现：动力弱化现象只在高速滑移时才发生,伴随着摩擦生热,岩石的摩擦系数显著降低。断层泥中富镁黏土矿物的富集可以显著降低断层的摩擦系数,促进蠕滑,黏土矿物的不均一分布可导致断裂带变形行为和地震分布的突变。与断层泥和碎裂岩不同,粉碎岩形成于快速传播地震的断裂端部,具高孔隙率和高渗透率,流体活动性强。此外,断层岩的有机质成熟度可用来追溯古地震造成的热异常。在川滇中国地震科学实验场开展科学钻探项目,研究断层岩样品的显微结构、物理性质和变形历史,以期为理解大陆汇聚与转换挤压过程中复杂的地震活动提供重要信息。     

Progress in Semi-arid Climate Change Studies in China

This article reviews recent progress in semi-arid climate change research in China.Results indicate that the areas of semiarid regions have increased rapidly during recent years in China,with an increase of 33%during 1994-2008 compared to 1948-62.Studies have found that the expansion rate of semi-arid areas over China is nearly 10 times higher than that of arid and sub-humid areas,and is mainly transformed from sub-humid/humid regions.Meanwhile,the greatest warming during the past 100 years has been observed over semi-arid regions in China,and mainly induced by radiatively forced processes.The intensity of the regional temperature response over semi-arid regions has been amplified by land-atmosphere interactions and human activities.The decadal climate variation in semi-arid regions is modulated by oceanic oscillations,which induce land-sea and north-south thermal contrasts and affect the intensities of westerlies,planetary waves and blocking frequencies.In addition,the drier climates in semi-arid regions across China are also associated with the weakened East Asian summer monsoon in recent years.Moreover,dust aerosols in semi-arid regions may have altered precipitation by affecting the local energy and hydrological cycles.Finally,semi-arid regions in China are projected to continuously expand in the 21st century,which will increase the risk of desertification in the near future.     

双循环新格局下重庆市城镇化发展动力与实现路径

源于时代之变而构筑的双循环新发展格局是市场经济条件下多尺度空间输出理论与劳动地域大分工的“叠加”,为新型城镇化发展带来新的动力源泉。为了揭示这种影响,首先将科技创新和制度改革这2个城镇化发展动力外生变量内生化,构建基于“四维驱动力模型+创新力+制度力”的城镇化动力因子分析框架,结合主成分回归模型对2000年以来重庆市城镇化发展动力进行分析,并据此引入波特的“钻石模型”对其城镇化发展路径进行系统思考。结果表明：1）纳入动力因子体系的创新力和制度力对重庆市城镇化发展产生显著的正向驱动效应,其中创新力表现最为明显。2）重庆市城镇化发展是“六维力”共同作用的结果,但市场力和行政力依然是最主要的驱动力;其次是创新力、内源力和外向力,其中创新力对城镇化发展的驱动效应已在阶段2(2010—2018年)超越行政力的作用效应;最后是制度力;间接反映重庆市城镇化本身是一个内生作用的过程,构筑“以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进”新发展格局具有客观必然性和前瞻性。3）基于波特“钻石模型”分析指出：重庆市存在增长极体量小、市场购买力不足、产品低端化、同质化现象严重等问题,并据此从发展高级生产要素、创造...     

DRY-SEASON VARIABILITY IN SUSPENDED SEDIMENT CONCENTRATIONS IN THE SOUTH PASSAGE OF THE CHANGJIANG ESTUARY

This paper reports the results of continuous monitoring of turbidity, water depth, salinity (using an Optical Backscatter Sensor (OBS)), and current velocity (using a Current meter (SLC9-2)) in the South Passage of the Changjiang Estuary over a spring–neap period in February 2003 (dry season). The turbidity measured via OBS was closely correlated with the suspended sediment concentration (SSC), which was highly variable. Over the study period, the SSC in the middle layer ranged from 110 to 1400 mg/l. The minimum SSC occurred during a late ebb tide, and the maximum SSC occurred during a late flood tide. On average, the SSC was 1.5 times higher during flood tide than during ebb tide. Vertically within the water column, SSC increased downward, with the ratio of SSC measured near the bed to that measured at the surface ranging from 1.90 to 18.3. The temporal variability in SSC is jointly governed by tides and wind-induced waves, whereas the vertical variability in SSC is attributed to the effect of gravity and vertical water circulation.     

Towing dynamics of a liferaft and fast rescue craft in a surface wave

The equations of motion for the coupled dynamics of a small liferaft and fast rescue craft in a surface wave are formulated in two dimensions using the methods of Kane and Levinson [1985. Dynamics: Theory and Applications. McGraw-Hill Inc., New York]. It is assumed that the motion normal to the wave surface is small and can be neglected, i.e. the bodies move along the propagating wave profile. The bodies are small so that wave diffraction and reflection are negligible. A Stokes second order wave is used and the wave forces are applied using Morison's equation for a body in accelerated flow. Wind loads are similarly modelled using drag coefficients. The equations are solved numerically using the Runge–Kutta routine “ode45” of MATLAB^®. The numerical model provides guidelines for predicting the tow loads and motions of small craft in severe sea states.     

Response of Nereis diversicolor population (Polychaeta,Nereididae) to the pollution impact – Authie and Seine estuaries (France)

A survey within the French National Programme of Ecotoxicology was carried out in 2002, 2003 and 2004 to study the response of Nereis diversicolor populations (Polychaeta, Nereididae) to the impact of pollution in the Authie estuary (non-contaminated site) and in the Seine estuary (contaminated site). In the period studied, the density varied from 672 ind. m⁻² to 3584 ind. m⁻² in the Authie estuary and from 80 ind. m⁻² to 920 ind. m⁻² in the Seine estuary. Biomass varied from 3.94 g m⁻² (dry weight) in February 2004 to 38.0 g m⁻² in August 2003 in the Authie estuary and from 3.4 g m⁻² in February 2002 to 0.6 g m⁻² in February 2004 in the Seine estuary. Density and biomass of the populations of N. diversicolor were consistently lower in the Seine estuary than in the Authie estuary. Size frequency histograms permit the analysis of the cohorts as well as the elaboration of the growth curves. For the individuals from the Authie estuary, the relation between dry weight (DW) and length L3 (prostomium, peristomium and chaetiger 1) was DW = 4.2205 L3^2.9832. For those from the Seine estuary, the relation between dry weight and L3 was DW = 0.4697e^1.7209L3. The individuals of N. diversicolor should belong to eight cohorts in Authie estuary (two cohorts each year) instead of six cohorts for those from the Seine estuary. These differences can be attributed to the effect of pollution on the population of N. diversicolor.     

The role of Coriolis in sandbank formation due to a headland/island system

Tidal flow past a headland was modelled and the resulting sandbank formation due to bedload transport by eddy systems was examined with particular emphasis on the role of Coriolis. The headland configuration was extended to the more complex case of a headland with a detached island and the role of Coriolis in sandbank formation was again examined. In the headland case, the contribution of Coriolis resulted in the expected change in bed level at the centre of the residual eddies (positive contribution for the cyclonic eddy and negative change for the anticyclonic eddy). In the headland/island case, the role of Coriolis in the resulting bed level change was a function of eddy shedding from the island, defined by the island wake parameter. When eddy shedding occurred, the inclusion of Coriolis had a large magnitude effect on creating flood/ebb sandbank asymmetry. When eddies remained attached to the island, Coriolis had a minor role in the magnitude of this asymmetry.     

西湖凹陷中南部油气成藏动力学特征及成藏机理

西湖凹陷以始新世末的玉泉运动和中新世末的龙井运动形成的不整合面为界,将盆地的发展演化分为裂陷、坳陷和区域沉降三个阶段。在盆地演化的不同阶段,不同构造带的沉降速率存在差异,烃源岩的热成熟演化史也不一致。生、排烃史模拟表明：平湖组烃源岩的生烃强度最高,花港组烃源岩的生烃强度相对较小;中央背斜带及其两侧深凹部位烃源岩的生烃强度大于保斜坡带;主要应用Basin Mod盆地模拟软件系统,通过对流体势、温压系统、异常压力的分析,探讨西湖凹陷中南部油气运聚成藏的机理。