Effects of dynamic shear strength and time-histories stress analysis on newmark sliding block analyses

A simplified procedure for evaluating aseismic stability of slope subjected to earthquake shaking, in which the effect of dynamic shear strength and time-history stress on the yielding angular acceleration of sliding block is taken into account, is presented. The fundamental feature of this procedure is the dynamic shear strength. The numerical computations are performed by using the proposed method. It is shown that the computed sliding displacement for a given core dam, with either method of dynamic shear strength properly considered, is more rational compared with the conventional computational results based on static shear strength.     

Methylmercury and human biomarkers： Questioning the evidence

Methylmercury （MeHg） is a powerful neurotoxicant in humans. In terms of biomarkers of MeHg exposure, hair and blood have long been used in epidemiological studies as the biomarkers of choice. In fact, total hair mercury （Hg） content as well as organic blood Hg concentrations reflects exposure to organic Hg from food consumption. Extensive studies, establishing a constant and linear relation between MeHg intake versus Hg levels in hair and blood, were conducted by governmental officials to establish guidelines on safe levels of MeHg exposure, which were translated into threshold daily fish consumption rates （usually expressed as μg MeHg per kg bodyweight）. Nowadays, in most epidemiologic studies blood or hair mercury （Hg） level is commonly used as a valid proxy to estimate human exposure to methylmercury （MeHg） through fish consumption without relating this signal to actual fish consumption patterns among populations. Human variability in mercury toxicokinetics was identified and measurement error has been pointed out to be a substantial contributor to observed variability, particularly where dietary information is retrospective and self-reported. However, experimental evidence indicates that significant variability among individuals may exist in the biokinetics of mercury. Also recent findings from previous population-based studies through COMERN initiative also revealed that MeHg metabolic processes might greatly vary across populations. In fact, it is unlikely that the magnitude of the difference measured between observed and expected levels of mercury, given the reported intake, can be entirely explained by laboratory measurement errors or reporting bias.     

Towards Formulation of a Space-borne System for Early Warning of Floods: Can Cost-Effectiveness Outweigh Prediction Uncertainty?

The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics, which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements. This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement, GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction. A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer.     

油气化探数据库系统

建立油气化探数据库是油气化探信息资源共享、科学管理、宏观决策的基础和依据,是油气化探数据处理及异常评价的基础。本系统采用动态自适应结构,收集、录入了几十年来我国油气化探数据,可以完成油气化探数据登录、管理、浏览、检索、报表、数据预处理。文章中论述了油气化探数据库的结构、特点及功能,反映了油气化探数据库研究领域的新进展和研究水平。     

南海西南部曾母盆地早中新世以来沉降史分析

采用回剥法和局部均衡模式研究曾母盆地早中新世以来的沉降史，并探讨了该盆地构造演化特征。曾母盆地自早中新世以来经历了17．5-11．6Ma、11．6-5．5Ma、5．5-3．0Ma和3．0-0Ma的4次快速沉降作用，其构造演化受控于曾母地块与南沙地块及婆罗洲地块的碰撞和盆地两侧的万安-卢帕尔断裂与廷贾走滑断裂的综合作用，可划分为南北双向挤压（晚始新世-早中新世）、走滑改造（中中新世-晚中新世）和区域沉降（上新世-第四纪）3个演化阶段。     

青海湖地区生态环境动态变化遥感监测

由于青海湖地区的生态环境较为脆弱，且人类活动进一步加剧，人口、资源与环境的矛盾日渐突出，因此，近年来．青海湖及其周边地区的生态环境出现了明显变化，主要表现在水位下降及水域面积减小、草原退化、沙质荒漠化土地面积扩大等。文章采用1975年MSS卫星图像及1987、2000年TM卫星图像作为遥感信息源，并结合地理信息系统方法，旨在查明青海满地区耕地、沙质荒漠化土地和水域等生态环境要素的时空演化规律，为青海湖地区实现资源开发与环境协调发展提供科学依据。监测结果表明，25a来，青海湖地区的耕地及沙质荒漠化土地面积出现明显的扩大，而水域面积出现明显缩小，同时由于湖周各河流土壤侵蚀的加剧，在部分河流入湖处泥沙淤积较为严重，生态环境出现明显恶化。     

基于工作流技术的动态GIS服务链研究

提出了一种基于工作流技术的动态GIS服务链的实现方法,该方法使用抽象GIS服务组合服务链,由GIS服务动态选择机制将抽象服务映射到具体服务,并结合工作流技术,将工作流描述语言描述的GIS服务链流程送入工作流引擎,由工作流引擎管理和监控服务链的运行。     

山西运城市森林火险等级预报系统

利用有关气象及森林火灾资料，分析了林林火灾的发生与气象条件、火条件及森林含水率的关系，计算了森林火险综合预报指标，建立了以预报方程，经试用效果良好。     

地震作用下的灰坝液化特征及其动力稳定性分析--以安阳电厂为例

根据安阳电厂灰坝岩土工程性质及其动力学特性,建立了适合灰坝工程的动力分析模型并采用有限元法进行了动力分析.在此基础上,在不同工况条件下对灰坝进行了抗液化安全评价及抗震稳定性分析.研究表明,在不设碎石桩、无排渗体条件下,粉煤灰子坝的抗液化安全系数Ks＜1.25,将发生液化;在设碎石桩、有排渗体条件下,粉煤灰子坝的抗液化安全系数明显提高,Ks≥1.25,不会发生液化.抗震稳定性分析表明,在上述两种工况条件下灰坝是稳定的.     

地下水水质预警信息系统研究

地下水水质预警是对地下水水质现状及变化趋势适时给出相应给别警戒信息的方法，包括状态预警和趋势预警两部分。以GIS技术为核心，将水质预警模型与GIS技术相结合，建立了地下水水质预警信息系统。并以吉林省西部平原地区地下水水质为例，研究了该区地下水水质恶化地区的分布、趋势、恶化预警等级及其成因。地下水水质预警系统为地下水资源管理，减少地下水水质恶化的风险提供了科学依据。