Suspended sediment estimation using neuro-fuzzy and neural network approaches/Estimation des matières en suspension par des approches neurofloues et à base de réseau de neurones

Abstract

The abilities of neuro-fuzzy (NF) and neural network (NN) approaches to model the streamflow–suspended sediment relationship are investigated. The NF and NN models are established for estimating current suspended sediment values using the streamflow and antecedent sediment data. The sediment rating curve and multi-linear regression are also applied to the same data. Statistic measures were used to evaluate the performance of the models. The daily streamflow and suspended sediment data for two stations—Quebrada Blanca station and Rio Valenciano station—operated by the US Geological Survey were used as case studies. Based on comparison of the results, it is found that the NF model gives better estimates than the other techniques.     

Sediment delivery processes and chemical transport in a small forested basin/Processus de production sédimentaire et transport chimique dans un petit bassin versant forestier

Abstract

Because the properties of eroded soil affect the deposition phenomena and transport capacity of chemical materials by eroded particles, recent research is trying to link the grain-size distribution of the eroded sediment to that of the original soil in order to explain the enrichment of chemical content of the sediment with the respect to the parent soil. In this study, the spatial distribution of nitrogen, phosphorus and total organic carbon was firstly deduced using the measurements carried out in 47 soil samples distributed over a forested basin together with a kriging interpolation method. Then the load of each chemical was calculated at morphological unit and basin scales using the above-mentioned spatial distributions and sediment yield values calculated by the SEDD (SEdiment Delivery Distributed) model, which couples the universal soil loss equation with a spatial disaggregation criterion of sediment delivery processes. Finally, at basin scale, a new expression of the enrichment ratio of a given chemical was applied.     

Changes of the 0°C isotherm and the equilibrium line altitude in central Chile during the last quarter of the 20th century / Changements de l'isotherme 0°C et de la ligne d'équilibre des neiges dans le Chili central durant le dernier quart du 20ème siècle

Abstract

An overall retreat of glaciers has been observed in the Andes of central Chile during the last ~100 years. Precipitation is mainly of frontal origin and concentrates in winter months. Analysis of precipitation data shows a decrease until 1976, an increase thereafter north of 34°S and a decrease south of 34°S, but overall no significant trends during the last quarter of the 20th century. Analysis of radiosonde data of central Chile shows mid-tropospheric warming with an elevation increase of the 0°C isotherm of 122 ± 8 m and 200 ± 6 m in winter and summer, respectively, during the 27-year period between 1975 and 2001. The results point to a snowline elevation increase in the region during the last quarter of the 20th century and a concurrent rise of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and suggest that mid-troposphere warming is the main cause for glacier retreat in central Chile.     

Glacier shrinkage and negative mass balance in the Chilean Lake District (40°S) / Rétrécissement glaciaire et bilan massique négatif dans la Région des Lacs du Chili (40°S)

Abstract

Ice-capped volcanoes of the Chilean Lake District have shown significant glacier retreat during recent decades, probably in response to tropospheric warming and precipitation decrease. Volcán Mocho-Choshuenco (39°55′S, 72°02′W) is one of the main active volcanoes in this part of the country. A mass balance programme was initiated on its southeastern glacier in 2003, in view of its representative conditions as an ice body that is presumably not affected by current volcanic activity. The glaciers of this volcano have been retreating and shrinking in recent decades; by 2003 there had been a reduction of 40% of the original area of 28.4 km² in 1976. A maximum decrease of area was observed in the most recently analysed period, a rate of 0.45 km² year^-1 between 1987 and 2003. The glacier average net mass balance of 2003/04 yielded ?0.88 m w.e. (water equivalent) per year (±0.18), with an average net accumulation and ablation of 2.59 and ?3.47 m w.e. per year, respectively. This is the first direct measurement of glacier mass balance in southern Chile, where very little is known about glacier variations and glacier–volcano interactions.     

Investigations du caractère multifractal des débits maximaux annuels de crue / Investigation of multifractality of maximum annual flood discharges

Abstract

Abstract The multifractal analysis of maximum annual flood discharges at 55 stations of the Tunisian gauging network allows one to associate the various statistical moments of surface discharges of the basins through a scale-invariant law. On this basis, a random cascades model is identified. The scale-invariant law obtained for extreme values represents a theoretical foundation for empirical models proposed since the 1960s which link extreme values, and their associated hazards, with surfaces of drainage areas.     

Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall: I. Theoretical investigation / Statistiques de valeurs extrêmes et estimation de précipitations extrêmes: I. Recherche théorique

Abstract

Abstract The Gumbel distribution has been the prevailing model for quantifying risk associated with extreme rainfall. Several arguments including theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence are supposed to support the appropriateness of the Gumbel distribution. These arguments are examined thoroughly in this work and are put into question. Specifically, theoretical analyses show that the Gumbel distribution is quite unlikely to apply to hydrological extremes and its application may misjudge the risk, as it underestimates seriously the largest extreme rainfall amounts. Besides, it is shown that hydrological records of typical length (some decades) may display a distorted picture of the actual distribution, suggesting that the Gumbel distribution is an appropriate model for rainfall extremes while it is not. In addition, it is shown that the extreme value distribution of type II (EV2) is a more consistent alternative. Based on the theoretical analysis, in the second part of this study an extensive empirical investigation is performed using a collection of 169 of the longest available rainfall records worldwide, each having 100–154 years of data. This verifies the inappropriateness of the Gumbel distribution and the appropriateness of EV2 distribution for rainfall extremes.     

Models for extremes using the extended three-parameter Burr XII system with application to flood frequency analysis / Modèles d’extrêmes utilisant le système Burr XII étendu à trois paramètres et application à l’analyse fréquentielle des crues

Abstract

Abstract A new theoretically-based distribution in frequency analysis is proposed. The extended three-parameter Burr XII distribution includes the generalized Pareto distribution, which is used to model the exceedences over threshold; log-logistic distribution, which is also advocated in flood frequency analysis; and Weibull distribution, which is a part of the generalized extreme value distribution used to model annual maxima as special cases. The extended Burr distribution is flexible to approximate extreme value distribution. Note that both the generalized Pareto and generalized extreme value distributions are limiting results in modelling the exceedences over threshold and block extremes, respectively. From a modelling perspective, generalization might be necessary in order to obtain a better fit. The extended three-parameter Burr XII distribution is therefore a meaningful candidate distribution in the frequency analysis. Maximum likelihood estimation for this distribution is investigated in the paper. The use of the extended three-parameter Burr XII distribution is demonstrated using data from China.     

Analysis of a large inter-basin water transfer system in India / Analyse d’un grand système de transfert d’eau inter-bassins en Inde

Abstract

Abstract Inter-basin transfer of water in India is a long-term option to correct the spatial and temporal mismatch of water availability and demand, largely owing to the monsoon climate. This paper is concerned with analysis and preliminary design of a large inter-basin water transfer system in peninsular India. The system covers four major basins and involves operation of 13 major structures. The study was carried out in three stages. First, the surface water deficit in each basin was estimated. Then the net deficit was worked out by considering the availability of groundwater. Finally, the link systems were planned to transfer the amount of water needed to meet the demands with desired reliability.     

Precipitation,temperature and runoff analysis from 1950 to 2002 in the Yangtze basin,China / Analyse des précipitations,températures et débits de 1950 à 2002 dans le bassin du Yangtze,en Chine

Abstract

Abstract Monthly precipitation and temperature trends of 51 stations in the Yangtze basin from 1950–2002 were analysed and interpolated. The Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to examine the monthly precipitation and temperature data. Significant positive and negative trends at the 90, 95 and 99% significance levels were detected. The monthly mean temperature, precipitation, summer precipitation and monthly mean runoff at Yichang, Hankou and Datong stations were analysed. The results indicate that spatial distribution of precipitation and temperature trends is different. The middle and lower Yangtze basin is dominated by upward precipitation trend but by somewhat downward temperature trend; while downward precipitation trend and upward temperature trend occur in the upper Yangtze basin. This is because increasing precipitation leads to increasing cloud coverage and, hence, results in decreasing ground surface temperature. Average monthly precipitation and temperature analysis for the upper, middle and lower Yangtze basin, respectively, further corroborate this viewpoint. Analysis of precipitation trend for these three regions and of runoff trends for the Yichang, Hankou and Datong stations indicated that runoff trends respond well to the precipitation trends. Historical flood trend analysis also shows that floods in the middle and lower Yangtze basin are in upward trend. The above findings indicate that the middle and lower Yangtze basin is likely to face more serious flood disasters. The research results help in further understanding the influence of climatic changes on floods in the Yangtze basin, providing scientific background for the flood control activities in large catchments in Asia.     

Improving generalization of artificial neural networks in rainfall–runoff modelling / Amélioration de la généralisation de réseaux de neurones artificiels pour la modélisation pluie-débit

Abstract

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are general-purpose techniques that can be used for nonlinear data-driven rainfall–runoff modelling. The key issue to construct a good model by means of ANNs is to understand their structural features and the problems related to their construction. Indeed, the quantity and quality of data, the type of noise and the mathematical properties of the algorithm for estimating the usual large number of parameters (weights) are crucial for the generalization performances of ANNs. However, it is well known that ANNs may suffer from poor generalization properties due to the high number of parameters and non-Gaussian data noise. Therefore, in the first part of this paper, the features and problems of ANNs are discussed. Eight Avoiding Overfitting Techniques are then presented, considering that these are methods for improving the generalization of ANNs. For this reason, they have been tested on two case studies—rainfall–runoff data from two drainage basins in the south of Italy—in order to gain insight into their properties and to investigate if there is one that absolutely gives the best performance.