Probabilistic hazard analysis of Citlaltépetl (Pico de Orizaba) Volcano, eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt

Citlaltépetl or Pico de Orizaba is the highest active volcano in the North American continent. Although Citlaltépetl is at present in repose, its eruptive history reveals repetitive explosive eruptions in the past. Its relatively low eruption rate has favored significant population growth in areas that may be affected by a potential eruptive activity. The need of some criteria for hazards assessment and land-use planning has motivated the use of statistical methods to estimate the time and space distribution of volcanic hazards around this volcano. The analysis of past activity, from late Pleistocene to historic times, and the extent of some well-identified deposits are used to calculate the recurrence probabilities of eruptions of various size during time periods useful for land-use planning.     

The Use of Reference Materials: A Tutorial

Any review of the analytical literature shows that, while reference materials are routinely used in laboratories world-wide, not all uses follow ISO Guide 33 (1989), which outlines best practices. Analytical data quality can suffer as a result. This paper reviews the various uses that the geoanalytical community has made of reference materials from a historical perspective, and suggests improvements in practice that would more closely follow ISO Guide 33 recommendations.     

Determination interative des geoides altimetriques

Geoid heights measured by spatial altimetry must be corrected for systematic bias due to orbital error. This requires the solution of a very large overdetermined and underconstrained system of linear equations. We present a rigorous procedure of solution by successive iterations (block relaxation method) and define its validity on a synthetic example from the Mediterranean area.     

The specific surface of Na+-humate on the basis of coion exclusion

The activity of the coion in Na⁺ -humate sol from the membrane potential and the activity of coion in the dialyzate values is calculated. The specific surface of Na⁺ -humate sol, determined by the negative absorption of coion, is close to 2000 m²g^?1. The relationships among the specific surface, the molecular weight and the size of particles of Na⁺ -humate sol are considered.     

Modelling Thermohaline Properties in an Estuarine Upwelling Ecosystem (Ría de Vigo: NW Spain) Using Box-Jenkins Transfer Function Models

Since 1987, twice weekly, hydrological variables have been monitored at a fixed station in the Ría de Vigo (NW Spain), aiming to examine the time scales of variability and the relationships to meteorological conditions. The present paper analyses: (1) the advantage of Box-Jenkins transfer function (TF) models (single output–multiple input), a type of linear stochastic model, to describe the dynamic behaviour of the system; and (2) the coupling between the Ría and meteorological events at the time scale of autonomy of this coastal inlet affected by the Iberian coastal upwelling, approximately a fortnightly period. In order to achieve these objectives, thermohaline properties have been used to characterize the estuarine ecosystem (output variables), while wind regime, runoff in the drainage basin and incoming solar radiation have been considered as the main forcing variables (input variables). The use of the amplitude time series, derived from principal component analysis (PCA) applied to the deseasonalized meteorological variables, is also explored as a different set of input variables.When compared with standard regression models, all TF models built to describe thermohaline behaviour had reduced residual variance. Similar TF models, as well as percentage of explained variance, were also obtained when meteorological variables or the amplitude time series were used as input variables. The fitted TF models provided an insight into the ‘ inertial ’ behaviour of the system and the time scales of coupling of the system with the forcing variables. The plausible physical mechanisms which link the response of the system with the observed meteorological variability are also discussed. As could be expected, bottom thermohaline properties show a stronger inertial behaviour than the surface ones, which is particularly marked for bottom temperature. Besides, the shelf domain, by means of upwelling-downwelling events, strongly influences surface and bottom temperature, as well as bottom salinity; by contrast, surface salinity is mainly influenced by the effect of wind along the main axis of the Ría and runoff. In relation to the time scales of coupling between the system and the forcing variables, thermohaline properties show a dependance with the meteorological conditions in, at least, the immediately preceding fortnight period. It was concluded that: (1) TF models that incorporate meteorological information described the dynamic behaviour of the system adequately; and (2) this type of model can be useful as a first approximation to develop more sophisticated (deterministic) models, since, with the purpose of modelling any state variable of the system, both the coupling between different domains and the time scales of the interactions must be taken into account.     

Large geographic and temporal extensions of the Río de la Plata Craton,South America,and its metacratonic eastern margin

Integration of existing isotopic and geological data allows a reconsideration of the distribution and age of the Río de la Plata Craton within South America. The reinterpretation increases the area of the craton to about 2,400,000 km² with implications for the tectonic map of South America and for global reconstruction of palaeocontinents. Four areas previously considered as separate cratons (Luís Alves, Curitiba, Tebicuary, and Paranapanema) are interpreted as part of the same Río de la Plata Craton. The craton is organized into six provinces and domains: Buenos Aires–Piedra Alta, Taquarembó, Tebicuary, Luís Alves, Encantadas, and Nico Pérez. The term ‘Transplatense’ is proposed to replace ‘Trans-Amazonian’ for Rhyacian events that occurred within the Río de la Plata Craton. The craton is formed not only by dominant Rhyacian rocks and local Archaean rocks, but also by Statherian and Mesoproterozoic rocks. The domains are all partially to totally covered by Phanerozoic basins (Paraná, Chacoparanense, Claromecó, Salado, Balcarce, and Colorado) which makes their investigation difficult. The Ediacaran–Cambrian collisions of the Brasilian orogen generated tectonic mixtures of orogenic and cratonic zones. This is more evident in the eastern margin of the craton, which behaved as a metacraton.     

Effect of anorthite on granite phase relations: Experimental data and models

New experimental data on the effect of anorthite (An) on liquidus phase equilibria in the system Qz–Ab–Or are presented. The data were obtained for 5 wt% An added to variable Qz/Ab/Or compositions at 300 MPa and under H₂O-saturated conditions. Crystal–liquid equilibria were determined for 13 synthetic glass compositions made from gels in experiments performed between 660 and 750 °C in cold-seal pressure vessels. Forward and reversal experiments were systematically conducted on each composition to demonstrate equilibrium. A total of 51 charges was examined. Three crystalline phases, quartz, alkali feldspar and plagioclase appear on the H₂O-saturated liquidus surface. The determined minimum liquidus 5 wt% An “piercing” point (39% Qz, 33% Ab, 28% Or) is shifted away from the Ab apex toward the Qz–Or sideline when compared with the An-free 300 MPa H₂O-saturated minimum. This shift is of the same type as that observed at 100 MPa in the same system and at 200 MPa in a rhyolitic system. The new experimental results are used to test both empirical and thermodynamic models for silicic magmas. Empirical models reproduce reasonably well the new experimental data, although more sophisticated calculations schemes appear to be required to improve their accuracy. The new experimental results in the haplogranodiorite system are not well reproduced with the model of Holland and Powell (2001), mainly because plagioclase stability appears greatly enhanced in the model. Rhyolite-MELTS satisfactorily reproduces the Qz-, Pl- and Af-liquid phase equilibria, but model H₂O solubilities are significantly lower and crystallization temperatures higher than in experiments.     

PLANT COLONIZATION IN CONDESA NIVATION HOLLOW, SIERRA DE GUADARRAMA (SPANISH CENTRAL SYSTEM)

The purpose of this study was to determine plant distribution at a nivation hollow located in a Mediterranean high mountain area and to analyse the effects of snow cover, wind exposure, proximity to moisture and the characteristics of the substrate on the vegetation. We analyse these factors and interpret concurrent effects due to recent climate change.
The nivation hollow, called Ventisquero de la Condesa, is located at 2258 m a.s.l., 40°47'10"N and 3°58'35"W, in the Sierra de Guadarrama (Madrid, Spain). We established 579 small sample plots in the study area, and grouped them into 29 transects where snow duration, wind exposure, availability of meltwater, geomorphologic instability and surface rockiness were examined directly and indirectly. The types of plants and the number of individuals per species were registered for each plot to establish ecological affinities among the 28 distinguishable species. Six showed the highest level of chionophily while nine showed the lowest adaptation to snow cover duration. A statistical study incorporating other variables applied in the research revealed that wind exposure, moisture capture and the intensity of geomorphologic dynamics have a highly significant correlation with nivation, while surface rockiness is a virtually independent factor. Due to environmental changes caused by recent global warming, several plant species, especially adapted to survival in snow conditions, coexist in the hollow with saxicolous plants that have invaded the site from adjacent grass and shrublands.     

Volcanic hazard zonation of the Nevado de Toluca volcano,México

The Nevado de Toluca is a quiescent volcano located 20 km southwest of the City of Toluca and 70 km west of Mexico City. It has been quiescent since its last eruptive activity, dated at ∼ 3.3 ka BP. During the Pleistocene and Holocene, it experienced several eruptive phases, including five dome collapses with the emplacement of block-and-ash flows and four Plinian eruptions, including the 10.5 ka BP Plinian eruption that deposited more than 10 cm of sand-sized pumice in the area occupied today by Mexico City. A detailed geological map coupled with computer simulations (FLOW3D, TITAN2D, LAHARZ and HAZMAP softwares) were used to produce the volcanic hazard assessment. Based on the final hazard zonation the northern and eastern sectors of Nevado de Toluca would be affected by a greater number of phenomena in case of reappraisal activity. Block-and-ash flows will affect deep ravines up to a distance of 15 km and associated ash clouds could blanket the Toluca basin, whereas ash falls from Plinian events will have catastrophic effects for populated areas within a radius of 70 km, including the Mexico City Metropolitan area, inhabited by more than 20 million people. Independently of the activity of the volcano, lahars occur every year, affecting small villages settled down flow from main ravines.