Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall: II. Empirical investigation of long rainfall records / Statistiques de valeurs extrêmes et estimation de précipitations extrêmes: II. Recherche empirique sur de longues séries de précipitations

Abstract

Abstract In the first part of this study, theoretical analyses showed that the Gumbel distribution is quite unlikely to apply to hydrological extremes and that the extreme value distribution of type II (EV2) is a more consistent choice. Based on these theoretical analyses, an extensive empirical investigation is performed using a collection of 169 of the longest available rainfall records worldwide, each having 100–154 years of data. This verifies the theoretical results. In addition, it shows that the shape parameter of the EV2 distribution is constant for all examined geographical zones (Europe and North America), with value κ = 0.15. This simplifies the fitting and the general mathematical handling of the distribution, which become as simple as those of the Gumbel distribution.     

The topographic record of The Netherlands 1800–1992 for sale

Abstract

At the end of the eighteenth century, a large-scale map of the Austrian Netherlands and the Prince-Bishopric of Liège was manufactured, covering more or less the current territory of Belgium. The work for this Carte de Cabinet was carried out by artillerists under the guidance of count Joseph de Ferraris, who was commissioned for the task by the Habsburg government. At the time that the map was designed, no modern legend was included. This paper tries to fill that gap by presenting a legend that was constructed more systematically than any of its predecessors. It is based on the structure of the legend of the Topographic Map of Belgium and the CORINE land cover map, making it an easy-to-use tool for modern researchers. The problems encountered during the development of the legend are described, and the link between the Carte de Cabinet and eighteenth-century French cartography as well as with cartographic manuals is also discussed.     

Quantitative morphometric analysis of lakes using GIS: rectangularity R,ellipticity E,orientation O,and the rectangularity vs. ellipticity index,REi

Quantitative measures of polygon shapes and orientation are important elements of geospatial analysis. These kinds of measures are particularly valuable in the case of lakes, where shape and orientation patterns can help identifying the geomorphological agents behind lake formation and evolution. However, the lack of built-in tools in commercial geographic information system (GIS) software packages designed for this kind of analysis has meant that many researchers often must rely on tools and workarounds that are not always accurate. Here, an easy-to-use method to measure rectangularity R, ellipticity E, and orientation O is developed. In addition, a new rectangularity vs. ellipticity index, REi, is defined. Following a step-by-step process, it is shown how these measures and index can be easily calculated using a combination of GIS built-in functions. The identification of shapes and estimation of orientations performed by this method is applied to the case study of the geometric and oriented lakes of the Llanos de Moxos, in the Bolivian Amazon, where shape and orientation have been the two most important elements studied to infer possible formation mechanisms. It is shown that, thanks to these new indexes, shape and orientation patterns are unveiled, which would have been hard to identify otherwise.     

阿尔金山北缘冰沟蛇绿混杂岩中辉长岩锆石SHRIMP U-Pb定年及其地质意义

冰沟蛇绿混杂岩是阿尔金山红柳沟蛇绿混杂岩带的东段部分,岩石组合包括蛇纹岩、方辉橄榄岩、辉石岩和辉长岩等。蛇纹岩具高Mg,Mg/Fe值大于9,低Al、Ca、Na、K为特征,从稀土元素和微量元素特征来看,基性辉长岩和洋壳以及洋中脊玄武岩极为相似,而超基性岩与原始地幔较为接近。辉长岩获得锆石SHRIMP年龄为449.5±10.9Ma。蛇绿混杂岩的围岩为一套巨厚的碎屑岩、火山碎屑岩、火山岩,以及部分碳酸盐岩构成,其中含有具有洋中脊特征的枕状构造玄武岩,以及放射虫硅质岩,放射虫时代为奥陶纪中晚期,与辉长岩的SHRIMP年龄一致。这些证据进一步证实了红柳沟一带存在早古生代洋盆的地质事实。     

新疆伊吾阿勒吞昆多蛇绿混杂岩特征

前人将唐巴勒-卡拉麦里缝合线置于伊吾县以南哈尔里克山塔水河一线。1993年巴瑞士等在伊吾西北大黑山发现超镁铁岩-镁铁岩洋壳残片,认为卡拉麦里蛇绿岩从伊吾西北大黑山一带向东延伸。2009年笔者参与伊吾县阿尔通盖一带1∶5万区域地质矿产调查工作,于伊吾县以北阿勒吞昆多一带发现阿勒吞昆多蛇绿混杂岩,该蛇绿岩中斜长花岗岩形成于早石炭世((351±6)Ma),大地构造为哈萨克斯坦-准噶尔板块及准噶尔微板块、唐巴勒-卡拉麦里古生代沟弧体系。在研究前人资料基础上,提出阿勒吞昆多蛇绿混杂岩为卡拉麦里蛇绿岩(属唐巴勒-卡拉麦里缝合线)向东延伸部分,唐巴勒-卡拉麦里缝合线(沟弧体系)西起唐巴勒,向东经达拉布特-卡拉麦里-塔克扎勒-大黑山至伊吾县阿勒吞昆多一带,可能延伸至蒙古境内。     

In Situ Determination of Au and Cu in Natural Pyrite by Near‐Infrared Femtosecond Laser Ablation‐Inductively Coupled Plasma‐Quadrupole Mass Spectrometry: No Evidence for Matrix Effects

Gold and copper concentrations were determined in natural pyrite by near‐infrared femtosecond LA‐ICP‐QMS, using both sulfide reference materials (pyrrhotite Po‐726 and in‐house natural chalcopyrite Cpy‐RM) and NIST SRM 610 as external calibrators. Firstly, using NIST SRM 610 as the external calibrator, we calculated the Au concentration in Po‐726 and the Cu concentration in Cpy‐RM. The calculated concentration averages for Au and Cu were similar to the values published for Po‐726 and Cpy‐RM, respectively. Secondly, we calculated Au and Cu concentrations taking NIST SRM 610 as an unknown sample and using Po‐726 and Cpy‐RM as external calibrators. Again, the average values obtained closely reflected the preferred concentrations for NIST SRM 610. Finally, we calculated Au and Cu concentrations in natural pyrite using sulfide and silicate reference materials as external calibrators. In both cases, calculated concentrations were very similar, independent of the external calibrator used. The aforementioned data, plus the fact that we obtained very small differences in relative sensitivity values (percentage differences are between 5% and 17% for ⁵⁷Fe, ⁶³Cu and ¹⁹⁷Au) on analyses of silicate and sulfide RMs, indicate that there were no matrix effects related to the differences in material composition. Thus, it is possible to determine Au and Cu in natural sulfides using NIST silicate glasses as an external calibrator.     

A buoyant plume adjacent to a headland—Observations of the Elwha River plume

Small rivers commonly discharge into coastal settings with topographic complexities - such as headlands and islands - but these settings are underrepresented in river plume studies compared to more simplified, straight coasts. The Elwha River provides a unique opportunity to study the effects of coastal topography on a buoyant plume, because it discharges into the Strait of Juan de Fuca on the western side of its deltaic headland. Here we show that this headland induces flow separation and transient eddies in the tidally dominated currents (O(100 cm/s)), consistent with other headlands in oscillatory flow. These flow conditions are observed to strongly influence the buoyant river plume, as predicted by the “small-scale” or “narrow” dynamical classification using Garvine's (1995) system. Because of the transient eddies and the location of the river mouth on the headland, flow immediately offshore of the river mouth is directed eastward twice as frequently as it is westward. This results in a buoyant plume that is much more frequently “bent over” toward the east than the west. During bent over plume conditions, the plume was attached to the eastern shoreline while having a distinct, cuspate front along its westernmost boundary. The location of the front was found to be related to the magnitude and direction of local flow during the preceding O(1 h), and increases in alongshore flow resulted in deeper freshwater mixing, stronger baroclinic anomalies, and stronger hugging of the coast. During bent over plume conditions, we observed significant convergence of river plume water toward the frontal boundary within 1 km of the river mouth. These results show how coastal topography can strongly influence buoyant plume behavior, and they should assist with understanding of initial coastal sediment dispersal pathways from the Elwha River during a pending dam removal project.     

Local sea level change scenarios for the end of the 21st century and potential physical impacts in the lower Ria de Aveiro (Portugal)

Sea level change is an important consequence of climate change due to its impact on society and ecosystems. Analyses of tide-gauge data have indicated that the global sea level has risen during the 20th century and several studies predict that the mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century, intensifying coastal hazards worldwide. In Portugal, the Ria de Aveiro is expected to be one of the regions most affected by sea level change.The main aim of this study is to evaluate the potential impacts of the mean sea level change on the hydrodynamics and morphodynamics of the Ria de Aveiro. With this purpose, local mean sea level change was projected for the period 2091-2100 relative to 1980-1999, for different Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These projections revealed an increase in the mean sea level between 0.28 m under scenario B1 and 0.42 m under scenario A2.The results obtained for sea level rise scenario A2 projection were used to force the morphodynamic model MORSYS2D, previously implemented for the Ria de Aveiro. The modelling results were compared with model forecasts for the present sea level. The residual sediment transport and its balance at the lagoon inlet were computed and analysed for both situations. While the residual sediment transport is generally seaward, sediments tend to deposit inside the inlet due to the weak sediment transport at its mouth. The direction of the residual flux will not change with the sea level rise, but sediment fluxes will intensify, and accretion inside the inlet will increase.The rise in mean sea level will also affect the lagoon hydrodynamics. The tidal prism at the lagoon mouth will increase by about 28% in spring tide. In the lower lagoon only a slight increase of the tidal asymmetry is predicted.     

An Exploration of the Interplay between the Measurement Uncertainty and the Number of Samples in Contaminated Land Investigations

In the assessment of potentially contaminated land, the number of samples and the uncertainty of the measurements (including that from sampling) are both important factors in the planning and implementation of an investigation. Both parameters also effect the interpretation of the measurements produced, and the process of making decisions based upon those measurements. However, despite their importance, previously there has been no method for assessing if an investigation is fit‐for‐purpose with respect to both of these parameters. The Whole Site Optimised Contaminated Land Investigation (WSOCLI) method has been developed to address this issue, and to allow the optimisation of an investigation with respect to both the number of samples and the measurement uncertainty, using an economic loss function. This function was developed to calculate an ‘expectation of (financial) loss’, incorporating costs of the investigation itself, subsequent land remediation, and potential consequential costs. To allow the evaluation of the WSOCLI method a computer program ‘OCLISIM’ has been developed to produce sample data from simulated contaminated land investigations. One advantage of such an approach is that as the ‘true’ contaminant concentrations are created by the program, these values are known, which is not the case in a real contaminated land investigation. This enables direct comparisons between functions of the ‘true’ concentrations and functions of the simulated measurements. A second advantage of simulation for this purpose is that the WSOCLI method can be tested on many different patterns and intensities of contamination. The WSOCLI method performed particularly well at high sampling densities producing expectations of financial loss that approximated to the true costs, which were also calculated by the program. WSOCLI was shown to produce notable trends in the relationship between the overall cost (i.e., expectation of loss) and both the number of samples and the measurement uncertainty, which are: (a) low measurement uncertainty was optimal when the decision threshold was between the mean background and the mean hot spot concentrations. (b) When the hot spot mean concentration is equal to or near the decision threshold, then mid‐range measurement uncertainties were optimal. (c) When the decision threshold exceeds the mean of the hot spot, mid‐range measurement uncertainties were optimal. The trends indicate that the uncertainty may continue to rise if the difference between hot spot mean and the decision threshold increases further. (d) In any of the above scenarios, the optimal measurement uncertainty was lower if there is a large geochemical variance (i.e., heterogeneity) within the hot spot. (e) The optimal number of samples for each scenario was indicated by the WSOCLI method, and was between 50 and 100 for the scenarios considered generally; although there was significant noise in the predictions, which needs to be addressed in future work to allow such conclusions to be clearer.