基于GPS的地基增强系统机载端完好性算法研究

针对地基增强系统（GBAS）非完好性事件的极端性,开展GBAS完好性算法研究,给出H0和H1假设下的机载端保护级计算方法,并分析GBAS中引起“虚警”和“漏警”两类非完好性事件的主要误差源。实验结果表明,机载端伪距经过差分校正后其位置精度优于1 m,可用性大于99.999 9%,满足CAT Ⅰ精密进近着陆导航需求。同时,进行非完好性事件仿真验证的结果表明,卫星几何分布和电离层风暴是引起“虚警”和“漏警”的主要误差源,未来CAT Ⅲ GBAS需将单星座扩展为包括北斗在内的多星座,将单频升级为双频,其中多星座可以优化卫星的几何布局,双频可以消除电离层风暴的影响。     

Landowner Attitudes Toward Conservation Easements: Balancing the Private and Public Interest in Land

Private land conservation provides an opportunity to address problems of habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss caused by an increase in the development and parcelization of private land. Conservation easements (CEs) are used to protect significant natural qualities of private land. In this study, we explore landowner attitudes toward CEs through the implementation of a mixed-mode survey to private landowners in the Whychus Creek Watershed (Deschutes County, Oregon). The results of an exploratory factor analysis suggest there are two dimensions to landowner attitudes toward CEs, an internal dimension and an external dimension. We found that positive external attitudes are primarily influenced by environmental beliefs, whereas positive internal attitudes are influenced by a suite of factors, including financial beliefs and perceived risk to private ownership. Awareness of CEs may also play a role in attitude development. Through this research, we argue that CEs may be beneficial in reintegrating the public good into private property.     

Farmers’ Dual Roles in Food Safety:Perceptions and Countermeasures

Farmers are both the producers and consumers of food, and as such have a dual role in food safety: they both generate risks and are exposed to them. Based upon a survey of the food production and consumption habits of 140 farm households and long-term research in two villages in Yunnan province, this study found that rural families are highly dependent on the market for food production and consumption. In their role as consumers, farmers are aware of food safety risks and concerned about them, but their ability to protect themselves is limited. They do so primarily by avoiding certain products and growing as much of their own food as possible. At the same time, in their role as producers, farmers engage in practices, primarily the overuse and inappropriate use of fertilizer and pesticides, that are damaging to food safety and the environment. There is therefore a disconnect in their roles as consumers and producers that needs to be addressed if policy goals for improving food safety and reducing the use of agricultural chemicals are to be achieved. Farmers need more information about food safety risks related to the products they consume themselves, and technical guidance on the safe use of farm chemicals when growing food for market. However, such measures will not be effective unless the external pressures on farmers are also addressed, through consideration of market incentives to use farm chemicals and the impact of consumer demand.     

Statistics-based Optimization of the Polarimetric Radar Hydrometeor Classification Algorithm and Its Application for a Squall Line in South China

A modified hydrometeor classification algorithm(HCA) is developed in this study for Chinese polarimetric radars. This algorithm is based on the U.S. operational HCA. Meanwhile, the methodology of statistics-based optimization is proposed including calibration checking, datasets selection, membership functions modification, computation thresholds modification,and effect verification. Zhuhai radar, the first operational polarimetric radar in South China, applies these procedures. The systematic bias of calibration is corrected, the reliability of radar measurements deteriorates when the signal-to-noise ratio is low, and correlation coefficient within the melting layer is usually lower than that of the U.S. WSR-88D radar. Through modification based on statistical analysis of polarimetric variables, the localized HCA especially for Zhuhai is obtained,and it performs well over a one-month test through comparison with sounding and surface observations. The algorithm is then utilized for analysis of a squall line process on 11 May 2014 and is found to provide reasonable details with respect to horizontal and vertical structures, and the HCA results—especially in the mixed rain–hail region—can reflect the life cycle of the squall line. In addition, the kinematic and microphysical processes of cloud evolution and the differences between radardetected hail and surface observations are also analyzed. The results of this study provide evidence for the improvement of this HCA developed specifically for China.     

双雷达反演闽南地区一次暴雨过程三维风场结构特征研究

前汛期暴雨是华南地区最常见且预测难度较大的灾害性天气之一,而造成暴雨最直接的系统是中尺度对流系统。利用区域自动站资料,NCEP再分析资料,厦门、泉州新一代天气雷达(CINRAD/SA)基数据,采用地球坐标系下的双雷达三维风场反演技术,分析了2015年5月20日闽南地区一次暴雨过程中尺度对流系统的三维风场结构特征。结果表明:此次暴雨过程是由低层的冷暖空气在闽南沿海地区交汇形成的切变线引起的,风场反演方法能够清晰地再现低层切变线的移动过程、处于不同生命阶段对流单体的三维风场结构。强回波区跟随切变线向南移动并分布于其两侧。当切变线过境、风向较为一致时,不利于强回波的进一步发展,降水开始减弱。如果对流单体中存在一致的上升气流,低层有明显的辐合,表明此单体仍处于发展状态,回波将会继续增强;若已经出现了一致的下沉运动且没有明显的入流,则回波处于消散阶段。相比于传统方法,"基于动态地球坐标系的双雷达反演风场方法"实现了对雷达径向数据的定量化应用,能够更直观地揭示中尺度对流系统的三维风场结构,并通过对垂直速度的计算及显示,可以快速判断回波未来的演变趋势,对快速预测回波的强度变化有非常好的参考意义。     

精河6.6级地震前精河水管仪、伸缩仪异常特征分析

2017年8月9日精河发生6.6级地震。本文首先利用相关、回归分析研究了气温对水管仪、伸缩仪的影响,并进行了干扰的定量剔除;其次,通过回归残差分析研究地震前水管仪、伸缩仪的异常特征,认为精河6.6级地震前存在3项异常:①2016年5月22日起,水管仪NS分量S倾幅度0.53";②2017年3月24日起,EW分量E倾幅度0.28";③2016年9月10日起,伸缩仪NS分量出现压缩现象。     

对数正态分布下边坡稳定性二元指标体系研究

安全系数不能考虑边坡系统中实际存在的不确定性,可靠性理论缺乏丰富的工程实践经验,因此,将工程实践经验丰富的安全系数与先进的可靠性理论相结合,建立传统安全系数与可靠性相耦合的二元评价体系具有重要的理论意义和应用价值.设安全系数服从对数正态分布,取系列的最大可能安全系数（中值安全系数）和变异系数,计算得到最大可能安全系数及在不同变异系数下的破坏概率Pfo从而可由最大可能安全系数和可靠性（R=1-Pf）共同度量边坡的稳定性.将最大可能安全系数与边坡可靠性相乘,对最大可能安全系数进行折减,得到边坡可靠的安全系数.根据折减后安全系数的极限状态,可计算出不同最大可能安全系数的临界变异系数和临界破坏概率.根据不同最大可能安全系数及它的临界破坏概率,绘出边坡稳定性分区图,并建立安全系数和破坏概率相结合的边坡稳定性判别的二元指标体系.文中提供了小样本条件下,利用3倍方差原理估计参数方差的计算方法,并给出了边坡稳定性二元指标体系的研究实例.     

Stream tube integration method for analysing subsurface fluid flow

A stream tube integration method is introduced to solve transient subsurface fluid flow problems. The method combines a geometry-embedded form of Darcy's Law and the notion of location of average. Two types of problems, transient radial flow to a well of finite radius in an areally infinite aquifer and in a double porosity system, are solved by the stream tube integration method and the integral finite difference method. Results of the solutions show that the stream tube integration method, with fixed coarse mesh, are more accurate and better behaved than the integral finite difference method, with fine mesh. The fixed mesh stream tube integration method is readily extended to the moving mesh method. With much coarse mesh, the moving mesh technique can obtain the same accurate results as the fixed mesh stream tube integration method. It is suggested that the stream tube integration method is a viable way to state, solve, interpret and verify numerical solutions. The method provides efficient computation and improved accuracy for analysing subsurface fluid flow. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

会昌台洞体形变观测资料干扰分析

对会昌台数字化洞体形变观测资料的干扰因素进行了分析。分析结果表明,会昌台大多数洞体形变观测资料稳定可靠,年变动态清晰,受气象因素影响不大,形变与洞温相关性较好,年变受控于洞温变化。雷电击坏仪器导致断记是影响连续率的主要因素,更换仪器可能对形变的趋势变化造成一定影响。     

斜纤蛇纹石的管道水特征研究

河北涞源斜纤蛇纹石为较小的中孔纳米管材料,通过氮吸脱附法、差热和热重曲线分析法、差示扫描量热分析法和红外光谱分析法,主要分析了其纳米管中管道水特征,明确了管道水作为有效加速剂和载体的作用,对以及对抗拉强度和介电常数的影响。研究表明斜纤蛇纹石纳米管中存在管道水(属于吸附水),去除温度在240℃±,内径为2nm～3nm的纳米管中管道水含量最高,管道水含量与纳米管分散度成反比。