A probabilistic model for the prediction of meteorological droughts in Venezuela

Droughts occur when rainfalls diminish or cease for several days, months or years. In the last five years several meteorological droughts have occurred in Venezuela, impacting negatively water supply, hydro-power and agriculture sectors. In order to provide institutions with tools to manage the water resources, a probabilistic model has been developed and validated to predict in advance the occurrence of meteorological droughts in the country using monthly series of 632 rainfall stations. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used to identify dry events of each rainfall series. A principal component analysis associated to a geographic information system was used to define geographically continuous homogeneous sub-regions (HS) for the values of SPI. For each HS a representative station was selected (reference station, RS). A lagged correlation analysis was applied to the SPI series of the RS and the corresponding series of anomaly indices of 10 macroclimatic variables (MV). The four MV with higher correlation in each RS were organized into three levels (-1, 0 and +1), using the quartiles Q₂ and Q₄ as values of truncation. The SPI series are expressed in four ranges: non-dry, moderately dry, severely dry and extremely dry. The conditional probability of occurrence of the four ranges of SPI was determined in every combination that can occur in the four VM best correlated. The resulting model in each RS was validated using the SPI series from 20 meteorological stations operated by the Servicio de Meteorología de la Fuerza Aérea Venezolana (Meteorological Service of the Venezuelan Air Force) which were not used in the development of the models. Results indicate that models detected the occurrence of ES with an accuracy ranging from 85.19 to 100%; the success is directly proportional to the length of records used in the development of the model. This methodology could be applied in any country that has long, continuous and homogeneous rainfall series.     

基于清代故宫旱灾档案的中国旱灾时空格局

气候变化背景下的旱灾时空格局研究受到政府和学术界的高度重视。利用清代故宫旱灾档案建立了清代旱灾数据库,运用GIS技术重建了1689-1911年中国旱灾时空格局。研究表明:① 从旱灾发生的时间上看,受灾范围呈现3次较大波动,出现了9个干旱灾害典型年;② 从旱灾发生的空间上看,旱灾频发中心主要集中在3个区域,即西北地区的甘肃、宁夏,华北地区的山东、河北、河南、天津,以及江淮地区的安徽、江苏;③ 从干旱灾害发生的季节上来看,夏季旱灾是清代干旱灾害的主导类型。研究结果认为利用故宫旱灾档案复原的清代旱灾时空格局基本符合史实。     

干旱频率分析研究进展

从干旱定义与识别、点干旱频率分析和区域干旱频率分析3个方面系统阐述了干旱频率分析研究进展和存在问题,归纳了适用于干旱频率分析的干旱定义,干旱识别存在的主要问题以及区域干旱频率分析研究的3种途径。提出综合利用研究区域水文气象特性、干旱成因、旱情、旱灾,并结合前期的大气环流条件等信息来描述和识别干旱,重点开展对干旱特征变量的理论分布、干旱事件重现期公式和经验频率公式等基本理论的研究,关注区域干旱频率分析,注重对径流、土壤水、地下水和供水系统的干旱特性分析。     

近年来山西中部地区水雨情及旱情旱灾分析

分析了山西中部地区20世纪70年代以后的降雨、流量、蒸发量的时空分布。山西中部地区降雨偏少,年际丰枯变化大,年内分布不均。70年代以来径流在逐渐减少,2000年以后径流的减少更为明显。90年代以后蒸发量增大。分析了90年代以来该地区发生的农业受旱、粮食旱灾情况,降雨、流量、蒸发量是影响旱情旱灾发生的重要因素。     

Impact of Meteorological Drought on Streamflow Drought in Jinghe River Basin of China

Under global climate change, drought has become one of the most serious natural hazards, affecting the ecological environ- ment and human life. Drought can be categorized as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological or socio-economic drought. Among the different categories of drought, hydrological drought, especially streamflow drought, has been given more attention by local govern- ments, researchers and the public in recent years. Identifying the occurrence of streamflow drought and issuing early warning can pro- vide timely information for effective water resources management. In this study, streamflow drought is detected by using the Standard- ized Runoff Index, whereas meteorological drought is detected by the Standardized Precipitation Index. Comparative analyses of fre- quency, magnitude, onset and duration are conducted to identify the impact of meteorological drought on streamflow drought. This study focuses on the Jinghe River Basin in Northwest China, mainly providing the following findings. 1） Eleven meteorological droughts and six streamflow droughts were indicated during 1970 and 1990 after pooling using Inter-event time and volume Criterion method. 2） Streamflow drought in the Jinghe River Basin lagged meteorological drought for about 127 days. 3） The frequency of streamflow drought in Jinghe River Basin was less than meteorological drought. However, the average duration of streamflow drought is longer. 4） The magnitude of streamflow drought is greater than meteorological drought. These results not only play an important theo- retical role in understanding relationships between different drought categories, but also have practical implications for streamflow drought mitigation and regional water resources management.     

2011年洪湖和梁子湖受旱程度差异和成因分析

湿地是水陆交错的生态系统,往往受旱灾影响大,故此,对不同湖泊湿地受旱程度差异及其原因分析,可为减灾和湿地保护提供科学依据。本文利用2010年5月和2011年5月2个时相的HJ-1卫星CCD影像,提取洪湖和梁子湖2个时相的湿地水面积,结合统计资料和问卷调查数据,从湿地水面积及空间分布变化、湿地生态系统功能退化、湿地生态系统,对人类福祉影响3方面,分析了两湖湿地受旱程度的差异。并综合气象数据、统计资料和问卷调查数据,从气象因子、区域自然地理环境、湿地类型及特点、区域水文条件和湿地受保护程度5方面探讨两湖受旱程度差异的原因。结果表明：（1）2011年春旱期间,洪湖比梁子湖受旱程度更严重。旱灾时,洪湖水面积减少83.93 km2,减小比例为26%,梁子湖水面积减少13.02 km2,减小比例为4%;两湖的涵养水源、保护生物多样性、物质生产和水质净化功能均受到损害,洪湖较梁子湖更严重;受旱灾影响,洪湖湿地对人类福祉的消极影响大于梁子湖。（2）降雨量、气温和风速等气象因素、湖泊湿地成因类型、区域自然地理环境和水文条件是影响两湖受旱程度差异的主要因素,另外,湿地保护措施的差异及效果也会造成两湖受旱程度不同。     

哈密地区气象干旱监测指数研究

应用Z指数方法和帕默尔气象干旱指数基本原理的优点,选取哈密地区6个代表站1961—2010年逐月降水量资料,分南、北两个区域建立区域修正帕默尔气象干旱指数,确定了区域旱涝等级的划分标准。以计算得到的干旱指数与历史旱情记录进行对比验证,并与Z指数、降水距平百分率干旱指数对比分析,结果表明该干旱指数对干旱的反应符合历史实际,较Z指数、降水距平百分率干旱指数更适合当地应用。在此基础上,对哈密地区修正帕默尔气象干旱指数与旱情的关系及干旱发生的特征作了更进一步分析。     

江淮梅雨异常空间分布型对比分析

利用国家气候中心整编的中国160个测站的月降水资料,提取1951—2012年江淮流域26站6、7月份的梅雨量距平场资料进行EOF分析,将梅雨雨型分为北涝南旱型和南涝北旱型。利用NCAR/NCEP再分析资料对两种空间分布的典型年大气环流背景特征进行合成分析,结果表明:北涝南旱年,高纬度鄂霍次克海高压阻塞形势偏强,极涡偏弱,西太平洋副热带高压和南亚高压位置偏北,东亚副热带夏季风偏强,水汽辐合中心偏北;南涝北旱年情形基本相反,高纬度鄂霍次克海高压阻塞形势和极涡偏强,西太平洋副热带高压和200 hPa南亚高压位置偏南,东亚副热带夏季风偏弱,水汽辐合中心偏南。     

植被变化对2009年云南极端秋旱影响的数值模拟研究

利用Reg CM4模式对2009年云南极端秋旱开展了植被变化数值模拟试验。结果显示：Reg CM4对2009年云南极端秋旱具有较好的模拟能力,能够用于气候极端事件和植被变化气候影响的定量研究。植被退化和荒漠化导致降水减少、气温升高、比湿降低,大气状态更为干热化,试验情景下2009年云南极端秋旱加剧。植被变化导致云南上空700h Pa反气旋型偏差风场和500h Pa高度场异常升高是导致降水量减少的主要原因。荒漠化导致的干热化在范围、强度上都强于植被退化。     

基于20—30d振荡的长江下游地区夏季低频降水延伸期预报方法研究

用长江下游降水低频分量和环流低频主成分,构造多变量时滞回归模型(MLR)和主成分复数自回归模型(PC-CAR)的混合预报模型(MLR/PC-CAR),对长江下游降水低频分量进行延伸期逐日变化预报,延长预报时效。通过2011年6—8月预测试验表明,20—30 d时间尺度的长江下游低频降水预测时效可达50 d左右,采用南半球中高纬度地区850 hPa低频经向风的主成分作为预测因子的模型的预测精度明显高于东亚地区低频经向风作为预测因子的模型。这表明在20—30 d时间尺度上,长江下游降水与南半球中纬度绕球遥相关(SCGT)型有关的主分量的时滞相关更加密切。进一步对于较强20—30 d振荡的多年资料构建的MLR/PC-CAR混合模型预测试验表明,SCGT是预测夏季长江下游低频降水未来50 d变化的显著信号。基于SCGT的发展和演变,对于把握类似长江下游地区2011年6月初旱涝急转和7月中旬持续降水和强降水过程异常变化过程很有帮助,SCGT可以作为夏季长江下游20—30 d低频降水和强降水过程进行延伸期预报的主要可预报性来源之一。