锰掺杂对Ba(Zr,Ti)O3陶瓷压电与介电性能的影响

采用氧化物固相反应法制备了锰掺杂改性的Ba(Zr_0.06Ti_0.94)O₃陶瓷.研究了锰的掺杂量对Ba(Zr_0.06Ti_0.94)Mn_xO₃ (BZTM)陶瓷的结构、介电和压电性能的影响.实验发现,当锰含量x<0.5 mol%时进入晶格,使材料压电性能提高,损耗减小,表现出受主掺杂的特性;当锰含量x>0.5 mo     

基于GM(1,1)模型的海洋经济发展预测研究

文章采用灰色预测法,选取2001—2016年我国海洋生产总值作为基础数据,建立海洋经济发展预测模型即GM(1,1)模型;运用残差检验、关联度检验和后验差检验对该模型精度进行检验,同时运用该模型对已知年份数据进行预测并将预测值与实际值相比较,结果表明模型预测精度较高,对于短期预测具有可信度;在此基础上,运用GM(1,1)模型计算和预测2017—2021年我国海洋生产总值,得出我国海洋经济将保持稳步增长的结论。     

地基微波辐射计资料在降水分析中的应用

为了提升国产地基微波辐射计反演大气温湿廓线的精度,增强本地部署设备的观测性能,研究实现了地基微波辐射计的神经网络直接样本反演法和观测亮温预处理的神经网络间接样本反演法。将算法应用于武汉华梦科技有限公司研制的HRA002型国产地基微波辐射计,在武汉国家基本气象站开展了与探空以及美国3台MP-3000A微波辐射计的对比观测试验。试验结果显示,HRA002直接样本反演采用改进网络反演水汽密度、相对湿度均方差分别降低约0.94 g·m^-3、5%;观测亮温经过预处理后与模拟亮温的相关性提升明显,预处理前后反演的低层温度、水汽密度和相对湿度与探空观测的均方差分别从2.4 K、3.26 g·m^-3和18.79%改善为1.58 K、2.18 g·m^-3和14.55%,略高于直接样本反演;与3台MP-3000A的反演结果相比,HRA002采用直接样本反演方法的温度廓线总体优于MP-3000A,HRA002采用间接样本反演方法的水汽密度和相对湿度总体上平均偏差占优而均方差稍逊。研究结果表明改进后的直接样本反演法更贴合辐射计硬件性能,反演精度较高;亮温预处理显著提升了间接样本反演精度,在反演精度总体接近的情况下,弥补了直接样本反演法需要长期观测数据的缺陷;综合采用上述两种算法能够提升国产地基微波辐射计本地化、个体化的观测性能,在反演大气参量廓线方面具有可用性。

     

利用生物膜强化表流湿地处理农村生活污水的试验

针对农村生活污水难以集中处理的问题,提出了采用生物膜强化表流湿地工艺就地进行农村生活污水处理的方法,并对其进行试验研究.结果表明:在表流湿地表面设置生物膜载体后,系统的水质净化能力提高,处理负荷较高的条件下(COD_Cr:657.27 mg/L、TN:26.27 mg/L、TP:8.66 mg/L和SS:276 mg/L),处理效果显著提高.在效果明显的试验组中,生物膜设置后系统对TN、TP、COD_Cr的去除率分别提高了21.64%、16.24%、19.12%.另外,通过对系统中微生物的检测发现,生物膜载体的引入对湿地系统本身影响不大,系统水质净化能力的提高主要源于载体上微生物的增加.该方法在未增加系统占地面积的情况下提高了水质净化能力,为解决农村生活污水处理难的问题提供了新的思路.     

出口增加值对中国区域产业结构高度化的影响

利用2010年中国非竞争型多区域投入产出表,测算了30个省区市30个产业的出口增加值,揭示分产业出口增加值的区域分布格局;并通过构建和计算产业结构高度化指数,对比出口增加值与地区生产总值的产业结构差异,结合阐述出口增加值带动区域产业结构高度化发展的一般规律。结果显示：出口增加值的规模与结构高度化程度在空间上都存在东中西梯度差异;出口增加值产业结构高度化水平越高,即区域参与国际分工的程度越深,分工越高级,对区域产业结构高度化水平的带动作用就越显著。因此,区域间出口增加值的结构差异,是拉大区域间产业结构差异的因素之一,导致了区域产业结构的“马太效应”。根据研究结论,建议各区域通过创新驱动、产业技术溢出、延长产业链等方式优化产业结构和出口增加值结构,从而进一步推动区域经济转型升级。     

国产高分卫星数据在高海拔地区地质调查中的应用潜力分析

随着国产高分卫星的陆续发射,高分卫星数据在区域地质调查中的应用能力显得越来越突出。采用资源一号02C(ZY-1 02C)和高分一号(GF-1)卫星数据,在对原始数据质量进行评价的基础上,开展其在高海拔地区地质调查应用中的潜力分析。研究结果表明:ZY-1 02C和GF-1卫星数据已基本满足大比例尺地质制图的要求;在区域构造解译和岩性信息提取方面已达到同等空间分辨率国外卫星数据的水平,在高海拔地区地质调查中有很大的应用潜力。     

基于国产卫星影像的自然资源动态监测

准确及时地掌握山、水、林、田、湖、草系统变化状况,是自然资源管理重点关注的问题。卫星遥感技术具有宏观、综合、动态、快速的特点,能够应用于自然资源领域开展目标识别、信息采集与处理、分析与评估等工作,可作为自然资源监测的有效手段。本文以"土地、矿产、海洋"等重要自然资源要素为动态监测研究目标,基于多源多时相国产卫星遥感影像数据和各类审批、规划专题资料数据,开展自然资源动态监测研究。研究结果表明,深入挖掘国产卫星影像资源潜力,实现自然资源精细遥感监测服务模式是切实可行与高效的。     

Scenarios of global municipal water-use demand projections over the 21st century

Abstract

A comparison study is presented of three methods for evaluating trends in drought frequency: the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), and a new method for estimation of dry spells (DS), which is based on average daily temperature and precipitation, and takes into account the length of a spell. The methods were applied to climate data from 450 stations in the Elbe River basin for the period 1951–2003, as well as data from several stations with longer observed time series. Statistical methods were used to calculate trend lines and evaluate the significance of detected trends. The dry spells estimated with the new method show significant trends in the whole lowland part of the Elbe basin during the last 53 years, and at the 10% level almost everywhere in the German part of the basin excluding mountains and the area around the river mouth. The SPI and PDSI methods also revealed significant trends, but for smaller areas in the lowland. The new DS method provides a useful supplement to other drought indices for the detection of trends in drought frequency. Furthermore, the DS method was able to detect statistically significant trends in areas where the other two methods failed to find significant trends, e.g. in the loess region in the southwest of the German part of the basin, where small insignificant changes in climate can lead to significant changes in water fluxes. This is important, because the loess region is the area within the basin having the highest crop yields. Therefore, additional research has to be done to investigate possible impacts of detected trends on water resources availability, and possible future trends in drought frequency under climate change.     

Performance of renewable energy technologies under the CDM

While many different greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation technologies can be implemented under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), renewable energy technologies (RETs), in particular, are often viewed as one of the key solutions for achieving the CDM's goals: host-country sustainable development and cost-efficient emissions reductions. However, the viability of emission reduction projects like RETs is technology- and country-specific. To improve the CDM with respect to the diffusion of RETs, it is crucial to understand the factors that ultimately drive or hinder investments in these technologies. This study develops a methodology based on project-level, regional and global variables that can systematically assess the financial and environmental performance of CDM projects in different country contexts. We quantitatively show how six RETs (PV, wind, hydro, biomass, sewage, landfill) are impacted differently by the CDM and how this impact depends on regional conditions. While sewage and landfill are strongly affected independently of their location; wind, hydro and biomass projects experience small to medium impacts through the carbon price, and strongly depend on regional conditions. PV depends more on regional conditions than on the carbon price but is always unprofitable. Furthermore, we determine the carbon prices necessary to push these six RETs to profitability under various regional conditions. Based on these results, we derive policy recommendations to advance the interplay between international and domestic climate policy to further incentivize GHG emission reductions from RETs.