低纬地区平流层准零风层时空分布特征分析

利用ERA-Interim逐日再分析资料,使用EOF（Empirical Orthogonal Function）等统计方法,分析了中国低纬地区平流层准零风层（Quasi-Zero Wind Layer,QZWL）的时空分布特征,旨在为平流层飞艇寻找合适的运行区域及时段。低纬地区QZWL主要受到热带平流层大气环流季节性变化和平流层准两年振荡（Quasi-BiennialOscillation,QBO）的影响。在二者共同作用下,低纬地区QZWL高概率带可分为南北两支:“北支”出现在10月至次年4月间,QBO东风位相时期,“北支”中心纬度基本维持在20°N附近,西风位相时期,“北支”中心纬度随高度降低南移明显;“南支”仅出现在QBO西风位相期间,5~11月在5°N附近,其余时段与“北支”合并,可以认为是“北支”向南延伸。通过对比海口站和南沙站Weibull概率密度函数与风速资料的拟合结果,表明Weibull分布可以很好拟合不同QBO位相下平流层逐月风速频率分布,根据Weibull分布计算特定的累积概率风速值,可以作为选取适宜平流层飞艇运行的低风速风场的判据。海口站30~50 hPa高度11月至次年4月、南沙站50~70 hPa高度QBO西风位相时期全年均较为适合平流层飞艇运行。     

Interstellar extinction toward the ultradeep Galactic field of the Chandra observatory from 2MASS data

We have measured the interstellar extinction in the region of ultradeep Galactic-field observations by the Chandra telescope (l ^II, b ^II) ≈ 0.1–1.42 using photometric data from the 2MASS infrared allsky survey. The angular resolution of our interstellar extinction map is 1′.8. We show that the interstellar extinction has a minimum, A _V ～ 3.4, near the center of the Chandra field of view and increases to A _V ～ 5.8–6 at the edge of the field of view. In addition, we show that the bulk of the extinction is gained in the Galactic disk and is approximately the same for all bulge stars. Our results will be subsequently used to process the Chandra data and to estimate the properties of the stellar population in this region.     

The statistics of particle velocities and accelerations under waves with directional spread

The statistics of the horizontal component of the water particle velocity vector under random waves are considered. A spread in the directions of travel of the component wave trains does not affect the rms value of the modulus r but it affects the shape of its probability distribution in such a way that the pr3bability of extreme values is reduced. For small and moderate directional spreads the modulus for a given probability of exceedance is reduced by a factor which tends to F_s as the probability of exceedance tends to zero, where F_s is the spread factor (which is typically 0.9 in temperate storms). However, the convergence on this asymptote is not complete for probabilities of engineering importance, particularly for wide directional spreads. The standard deviation of the probability distribution of the direction of the vector is reduced roughly in inverse proportion to r. The same conclusions apply to particle accelerations.     

A Study on the Distribution of Wave Phases

Probability distributions of wave phases in association with distributions of surface elevations arestudied with wave records.Wave records of different nature are used for comparison.These are surface fluc-tuations acquired during wind wave flume experiments,representing wave generation under strong wind:andwave records measured in the northern part of Taiwan for waves in natural environments.Three probabilitymodels,the unifrom distribution,the beta distribution,and a model from Tayfun and Lo(1989)are adoptedto study the possible distributions of wave phases.It is found that when surface elevations become skewed,wave phases deviate from the usually assumed uniform distribution and a better model would be the beta dis-tribution.     

Selection between the generalized Pareto and kappa distributions in peaks-over-threshold hydrological frequency modelling

Hydrologists use the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution in peaks-over-threshold (POT) modelling of extremes. A model with similar uses is the two-parameter kappa (KAP) distribution. KAP has had fewer hydrological applications than GP, but some studies have shown it to merit wider use. The problem of choosing between GP and KAP arises quite often in frequency analyses. This study, by comparing some discrimination methods between these two models, aims to show which method(s) is (are) recommended. Three specific methods are considered: one uses the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit (GoF) statistic, another uses the ratio of maximized likelihood (closely related to the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion), and the third employs a normality transformation followed by application of the Shapiro-Wilk statistic. We show this last method to be the most recommendable, due to its advantages with sizes typically encountered in hydrology. We apply the simulation results to some flood POT datasets.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR E. Volpi     

Downvalley fining of hillslope sediment in an alpine catchment: implications for downstream fining of sediment flux in mountain rivers

The size distributions of sediment delivered from hillslopes to rivers profoundly influence river morphodynamics, including river incision into bedrock and the quality of aquatic habitat. Yet little is known about the factors that influence size distributions of sediment produced by weathering on hillslopes. We present results of a field study of hillslope sediment size distributions at Inyo Creek, a steep catchment in granitic bedrock of the Sierra Nevada, USA. Particles sampled near the base of hillslopes, adjacent to the trunk stream, show a pronounced decrease in sediment size with decreasing sample elevation across all but the coarsest size classes. Measured size distributions become increasingly bimodal with decreasing elevation, exhibiting a coarse, bouldery mode that does not change with elevation and a more abundant finer mode that shifts from cobbles at the highest elevations to gravel at mid elevations and finally to sand at low elevations. We interpret these altitudinal variations in hillslope sediment size to reflect changes in physical, chemical, and biological weathering that can be explained by the catchment's strong altitudinal gradients in topography, climate, and vegetation cover. Because elevation and travel distance to the outlet are closely coupled, the altitudinal trends in sediment size produce a systematic decrease in sediment size along hillslopes parallel to the trunk stream. We refer to this phenomenon as ‘downvalley fining.’ Forward modeling shows that downvalley fining of hillslope sediment is necessary for downstream fining of the long-term average flux of coarse sediment in mountain landscapes where hillslopes and channels are coupled and long-term net sediment deposition is negligible. The model also shows that abrasion plays a secondary role in downstream fining of coarse sediment flux but plays a dominant role in partitioning between the bedload and suspended load. Patterns observed at Inyo Creek may be widespread in mountain ranges around the world. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Estimation of wave period statistics using numerical coastal wave model

We used field and model wave data to investigate that zero crossing and average wave period distribution follow Gamma distribution. Since Gamma CDF is an infinite power series, further mathematical treatment is difficult. Hence its shape parameter is approximated to the nearest integer to arrive at Erlang distribution. An expression is derived from Erlang distribution to estimate various mean wave periods and significant wave period and validated by relative root mean square (RRMS) error criteria. It is shown by mathematical logic that the significant wave period distribution follows Erlang (or Gamma) distribution and is validated. The average of one-third and one-tenth highest wave periods (T _s ) estimated from Erlang distribution are in accordance with the values computed from recorded buoy and numerical coastal wave model wave period data. The predicted T _s values from coastal wave model wave period data underestimates the values from buoy wave period data.     

Statistical Distributions of Hydraulic Conductivity from Reliability Analysis Data

This paper describes a first-order reliability-based analysis to identify the best-fit probability distributions for hydraulic conductivity. The analysis involved the use of existing hydraulic conductivity model developed from laboratory data and applied to lateritic soils, considering variations in soil parameters. Plots of reliability indices versus coefficients of variation were first made for hydraulic conductivity as well as for initial degree of saturation, plasticity index and clay content, considering three compactive efforts and log-normally distributed hydraulic conductivity. The traditional two-parameter log-normal distribution was compared to four alternative distributions: normal, gamma, Gumbel (extreme value type I-EVT-I) and Weibull (extreme value type III-EVT-III). The analysis showed that the Weibull and normal are the best-fit probability distributions for the hydraulic conductivity based reliability data. Hydraulic conductivities predicted from reliability analysis were used to demonstrate the possibility of applying the results obtained in this research by practising engineers. Experimentally-determined hydraulic conductivities were shown to be in good agreement with predicted values.     

胶州湾水体重金属Hg的质量浓度和分布

根据1982-04、06、07和10月胶州湾水域调查资料,探讨和研究胶州湾重金属Hg的水质、平面分布、垂直分布、季节变化以及来源.结果表明：Hg在胶州湾水体中的质量浓度范围为：0.006～0.049 μg/L,在胶州湾整个水域,没有受到Hg的污染.在胶州湾西南沿岸水域,地表径流直接输送Hg入海,其质量浓度都非常低;在胶州湾东部沿岸水域,河流输送Hg入海,其质量浓度相对较高.Hg的表、底层水平分布证实了Hg的水域迁移过程和水域迁移机制.Hg质量浓度的垂直分布展示了胶州湾表层水质受到陆地地表径流输送Hg的影响,而胶州湾底层水质受到累计沉降的效应.通过胶州湾Hg的时空分布,发现控制Hg的排放得到实施,输入胶州湾水域的Hg大为减少.