山东省汛期小时极端强降水分布和变化特征

利用山东省1961—2012年74个气象站逐时降水数据,分析研究了山东省汛期(5—9月)小时极端强降水的时空变化和日变化特征。结果表明:(1)山东省小时极端强降水量和频次呈大致的带状分布,由东南沿海向西北内陆递减。山东中西部极端小时强降水强度较大,鲁西、鲁西北、鲁西南及半岛西部一带极端强降水量占比较高。(2)山东历年各站平均小时极端降水量、频次、强度均呈不显著的增多增强趋势。鲁南、鲁西北和半岛东部、北部等地降水量增多趋势明显,鲁南、鲁东南、鲁西、半岛中东部降水强度增强趋势明显。(3)下午(15时)至傍晚(20时)是山东省小时极端强降水主要发生时段。降水量和降水频次在11—18时呈减少趋势,其他时段多为增加趋势。降水强度的变化在上午基本为减弱趋势,其他时次多为不同程度的增强趋势。(4)7月小时极端降水量和降水频次最大,一日中有两个高值中心。(5)山东夜间两个时段21时至次日02时、03—08时段平均和大部分区域极端强降水有增多趋势。     

济南市城市热岛效应的时空分布特征

论文应用区域自动气象站2007～2008年逐时气温观测资料,分析了济南城市热岛的时空分布特征,结果表明,无论春、夏、秋、冬,济南的城市热岛在空间分布上均以泉城广场、市政府为中心呈环状放射发展。热岛强度以冬季最强,秋、春季次之,夏季最弱。对城市热岛进行小波分析发现,济南冬季和夏季城市热岛的主要振荡周期是以准24h为代表的日变化和准270h所代表的旬变化为主。夏季日变化不如冬季明显,夏季旬变化略强于冬季。济南城市热岛以日为周期呈规律性变化,城市热岛强度表现为夜间强,白天弱。     

秋季长江口鱼类浮游生物群落时空结构

根据1998—2009年11月长江口及其邻近海域7个航次的调查资料,探讨了秋季长江口鱼类浮游生物群落种类组成、群落结构及多样性时空变化特征。研究结果显示,7个秋季航次共捕获鱼类浮游生物969个(尾),隶属于10目19科33种,以鲈形目种类最多(7科9种)。秋季长江口鱼类浮游生物以沿岸型种类最多(12种),其次是半咸水(10种)和近海种类(9种),淡水种类最少(4种)。秋季长江口鱼类浮游生物优势种年度间演替显著,对鱼类浮游生物群落丰度贡献最大的种类包括:半咸水型的矛尾鰕虎鱼(Chaeturichthys stigmatias)和前颌间银鱼(Salanx prognathus)、沿岸型的康氏小公鱼(Stolephorus commersonnii)、近海型的鳀(Engraulis japonicus)和带鱼(Trichiurus lepturus)。2004年以后,长江口鱼类浮游生物种类数量、丰度和多样性均显著高于2004之前的调查航次。ANOSIM分析显示,长江口鱼类浮游生物群落结构年度间差异显著,且2007和2009年与其他年度不相似性最高。可以看出,秋季长江口鱼类浮游生物种类组成呈年度变异状态,2004年后长江口鱼类浮游生物群落结构变异最大,多样性呈增加趋势。     

农业气象灾害风险评估研究进展与展望

致灾因子危险性评价是进行风险区划的重要环节。本文采用江西省贡水流域超警戒水位的降水作为暴雨致灾因子,以最优极值函数分布方法计算研究该流域的重现期面雨量,利用超警戒水位降水过程的降水量时间分布规律和降水空间经验正交函数分析结果,结合FloodArea模型开展不同降水时空分布情景的洪水演进模拟,以模拟淹没水深作为指标建立暴雨致灾危险性评价等级,对不同降水时空分布情景下贡水流域暴雨致灾危险性进行评价。结果显示:不同的降水时空分布对暴雨洪涝致灾危险性评价影响较大。该方法是完善流域内暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划和评估工作的基础,在此基础上开展流域内不同承灾体的脆弱性评价和暴露度评价,可为地方政府制订减灾规划与预案等提供参考。

     

基于响应面法的边坡稳定二阶可靠度分析

提出了基于响应面法的边坡稳定二阶可靠度分析的实用算法。选择U空间中的随机变量,通过空间变换和相关矩阵分解,计算试验点的功能函数;通过迭代算法构造响应面、以确保通过最小的计算量获得最优精度,并在此基础上进行FORM/SORM计算。以一岩石边坡的平面滑动问题为例,通过与蒙特卡洛模拟、FORM及随机响应面法的比较,证明了该方法的准确性和高效性。分析了参数的相关性及试验点取值范围对计算结果的影响,讨论了可靠度分析结果中参数敏感性和物理属性问题。该方法可为实际边坡问题的可靠度分析提供参考,并可以用来进行基于可靠度分析的加固设计。     

华东登陆热带气旋降水不同分布的对比分析

利用CMORPH降水资料，将热带气旋（TC）登陆后的降水分为路径左侧降水（L型）和右侧降水（R型）两类，并针对登陆华东地区TC的 L型和R型降水的大气环流场、环境水平风垂直切变以及台风环流内的动热力条件进行对比分析，结果表明:2005～2014年间登陆华东地区的20例TC中包括12例L型和8例R型。总体来看，大气环流因子对于登陆华东TC降水分布起主要作用。L型降水TC高层南亚高压主要呈纬向带状分布，在登陆过程中路径左侧维持偏东风高空辐散气流，中层西风槽偏东，西太平洋副热带高压（简称副高）偏南，环境水平风垂直切变指向西南。R型降水TC高层南亚高压断裂，呈经向分布。TC路径左侧风场较均匀，右侧东南风高空辐散气流明显。副高的位置偏北呈块状，同时环境水平风垂直切变指向东北，有利于路径右侧降水。台风环流内，低层冷暖平流输送以及水汽辐合与降水落区也有较好对应关系。L型TC低层暖平流的输送使TC西南象限低层增暖，大气稳定度降低。同时水汽辐合区也主要位于西南象限，有利于TC路径左侧降水。而R型TC副高位置偏北可将南侧的东南暖湿气流向台风环流更西部输送，东北象限维持暖平流，有利于路径右侧降水发生。     

Spatial Distributions of Phyllosoma Larvae (Crustacea: Decapoda: Palinuridae and Scyllaridae) in Taiwanese Waters

Distributions and taxonomy of phyllosoma larvae were examined in Taiwanese waters, based on ichthyoplankton samples collected from May 1990 to July 1995. Phyllosoma larvae belonged to the two families Scyllaridae and Palinuridae representing 6 genera and 13 species. Of the collected phyllosoma larvae, those of Scyllarus and Panulirus species were most abundant, forming 90% of total numbers. Early stage Scyllarus and Panulirus phyllosoma larvae were abundant in Taiwanese waters. Middle to late stages (except the final stage) of Panulirus phyllosoma larvae were absent from the waters throughout the year, while those of Scyllarus phyllosoma larvae were collected in the waters. This suggests that all stages of Scyllarus phyllosoma larvae may be retained in the northern part of the waters around northern Taiwan while middle to late stages of Panulirus phyllosoma larvae may be flushed out from the waters, the sub-final and final stages then possibly returning to the waters. An anticlockwise eddy existed in the waters off northeastern Taiwan, which may be closely related to flushing out and returning of Panulirus phyllosoma larvae through a much longer planktonic period. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

引水等综合整治后杭州西湖氮、磷营养盐时空变化(1985—2013年)

经引水等综合整治后,西湖外湖、西里湖总磷(TP)浓度累计下降58%和78%,总氮(TN)浓度累计下降16.7%和7.7%,透明度提高100%~200%,富营养状态得到极大缓解.比较1986年治理前,西湖各湖区因来水、引水和排水格局差异较大,TP浓度的年内变化特点及驱动因素也存在较大差异:杨公堤以西的上游湖区因优质水源补充TP浓度总体较低,同时受流域降雨径流面源输入影响,呈现时段性升高;杨公堤和苏堤之间的中游湖区优质水源补充量最大,湖区水体更新最快,TP浓度最低且变化相对最为稳定;苏堤以东的外湖区水体更新相对最慢,在夏、秋高温季节因底泥污染释放,TP浓度出现峰值.因外来引水量大且未经脱氮处理,西湖各湖区TN年内变化基本与钱塘江取水口TN浓度变化一致,同时因流域降雨径流面源输入而出现时段性波动.基于TP质量平衡模型分析,各湖区水质空间差异主要受水体年交换次数影响,其次受单位水体的年污染负荷影响.     

Vertical distribution of dimethylsulfide,sulfur dioxide,aerosol ions,and radon over the Northeast Pacific Ocean

Dimethylsulfide (DMS), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), methanesulfonate (MSA), nonsea-salt sulfate (nss-SO₄ ^2–), sodium (Na⁺), ammonium (NH₄ ⁺), and nitrate (NO₃ ^–) were determined in samples collected by aircraft over the open ocean in postfrontal maritime air masses off the northwest coast of the United States (3–12 May 1985). Measurements of radon daughter concentrations and isentropic trajectory calculations suggested that these air masses had been over the Pacific for 4–8 days since leaving the Asian continent. The DMS and MSA profiles showed very similar structures, with typical concentrations of 0.3–1.2 and 0.25–0.31 nmol m^–3 (STP) respectively in the mixed layer, decreasing to 0.01–0.12 and 0.03–0.13 nmol m^–3 (STP) at 3.6 km. These low atmospheric DMS concentrations are consistent with low levels of DMS measured in the surface waters of the northeastern Pacific during the study period.The atmospheric SO₂ concentrations always increased with altitude from <0.16–0.25 to 0.44–1.31 nmol m^–3 (STP). The nonsea-salt sulfate (ns-SO₄ ^2–) concentrations decreased with altitude in the boundary layer and increased again in the free troposphere. These data suggest that, at least under the conditions prevailing during our flights, the production of SO₂ and nss-SO₄ ^2– from DMS oxidation was significant only within the boundary layer and that transport from Asia dominated the sulfur cycle in the free troposphere. The existence of a sea-salt inversion layer was reflected in the profiles of those aerosol components, e.g., Na⁺ and NO₃ ^–, which were predominantly present as coarse particles. Our results show that long-range transport at mid-tropospheric levels plays an important role in determining the chemical composition of the atmosphere even in apparently remote northern hemispheric regions.