山西师范大学建筑物的震害预测

在统计、收集山西师范大学各类建筑物资料的基础上，对其各类建筑物进行了震害预测和经济损失估计，给出了各类建筑物在不同烈度下的破坏结果和经济损失值，为地震灾害的综合防御提供了科学依据。     

昆明经济技术开发区场地地震易损性分析

通过对昆明经济技术开发区的地质构造，场地工程地质环境，砂土液化判别以震害预测的综合研究，进行了区内的场地地震易损性分析。根据计算出的地震易损性指数，结果表明，可将研究区划分为两个震害程度不同的区域。     

Bayes判别分析法与地震短临预测

建立了一套完整的Bayes判别分析方法,并提出了明确的衡量综合预测结果所冒风险大小的风险代价比Kdn该方法可用于不同时间尺度的地震综合预测。选取云南地区1994～1996年的水氡观测资料,采用X2统计检验法识别前兆异常,利用Bayes判别分析方法对云南地区的强震活动性进行了内符检验和外推预测。在风险代价比Kdn取4的情况下,内符检验的R值可达0．54,外推时空占有率0．07,获得了满意的效果。     

鲁西地震活动趋势分析

鲁西地处化北地台中南部,聊考察裂纵贯南北,自有历史记载以来,还未发生过７级以上大震,但中强地震发育,小震活动频率,具有较明显的周期性和条带分布特征。作者试图分析鲁西历史及现地震的时间序列和空间分布,以期鲁西地震形势有一个总体认识,对未来地震活动做一大致估计。     

Characteristics of particle size distributions for the collapsed riverbank along the desert reach of the upper Yellow River

As a result of the interaction between hydrodynamics and the effects of gravity, riverbank collapse is a common occurrence in the desert reach of the upper Yellow River (also called as Ningxia-Mongolia Inner reach), of which the riverbank may be divided into three types such as sandy riverbank in the wide-valley desert reach, silt-deposition riverbank on the fluvial plain and silt–sandy riverbank. The char-acteristics of both typical riverbank collapse and the particle size distributions (PSDs) for collapsed riverbanks of sandy, silt-deposition, and silt–sandy types were determined from analysis of data obtained from the field observations. It was found that particles from the silt-deposition riverbank had the smallest median size and those from the sandy riverbank the largest, with those from the silt–sandy riverbank being intermediate in size. The PSDs of the sandy and silt-deposition riverbanks exhibited double-peaked and single-peaked structures, respectively, while those of the silt–sandy riverbank exhibited multiple peaks. Furthermore, the corresponding to three kinds of riverbank collapse mechanisms were revealed. These results are significant with regard both to the understanding of river dynamics and to the planning of river harnessing projects.     

基于广义极值理论的潜在地震海啸源震级上限及强震重现水平的估计——以琉球海沟俯冲带为例

以琉球海沟俯冲带作为研究区,将广义极值理论用于估计潜在地震海啸源震级上限,首先分析了琉球海沟俯冲带的地震地质构造特征以及历史地震资料,界定潜在地震海啸源区,然后根据地震活动性特征按时间域进行分割,并提取各时间段发生的极限震级的地震样本,最后通过广义极值分布模型估计了该区域的震级上限值和强震重现水平,并对其进行了不确定性分析。     

A numerical study of the behavior of fully grouted rockbolts under dynamic loading

The widespread preference for rockbolts in providing adequate rock stability in underground mines and man-made cavities make it necessary to obtain a better understanding of the response of these support systems. It is widely accepted that the fully grouted rockbolts provide better roof stability in areas of very poor roof condition which may be caused by high ground stress conditions. There is little information about the in situ behavior of these systems especially under dynamic loading. Hence, to study the behavior of fully grouted rockbolts under dynamic loading, a numerical modeling study was conducted using the FLAC^3D code. In this study the behavior of three types of fully grouted rockbolts were compared with each other including rockbolts with and without head plate and a yielding type one. The results of analyses indicated that under dynamic loading the fully grouted rockbolts without the head plate are incapable of controlling the rock mass movement. Although fully grouted rockbolts with head plate damp a considerable amount of the dynamic energy through friction as these bolts slide within the grout, but the elongation of the rockbolt is not possible due to the rapid breakage of the rockbolt–grout interface. Yielding rockbolts are the best choice for the absorption of the dynamic stress wave and controlling of the rock mass movement. The obtained results show that the optimal design of yielding rockbolt should be in such a way that after dynamic loading, anchoring part of bolt has a limited movement to prevent stress concentration in the shaft of rockbolt and its breakage.