用CAPPI和PPI资料测定区域降水量精度比较

应用上海中心气象台７１４数字化天气雷达的体积扫描资料所得的不同高度上的ＣＡＰＰＩ资料和低仰角时ＰＰＩ资料。估算区域降水量并得到降水量分布形势。然后采用平均校准法进行了校准，最后又与用雨量计网测量的区域降水量及其分布形势作了比较，得到一些有意义的结果。     

琼东南盆地华光凹陷天然气水合物稳定带厚度的影响因素

为了探讨琼东南盆地华光凹陷海底天然气水合物稳定带的分布规律,定量研究了静水压力、底水温度、地温梯度和气源组分对水合物稳定带的影响程度。在此基础上,分析了华光凹陷现今甲烷水合物稳定带的厚度分布。最后,综合各因素的历史演化过程,初步探讨了华光凹陷1.05 Ma BP以来天然气水合物稳定带的演化。结果表明:(1)气源组分和海底温度的变化对研究区内水合物稳定带的影响较大;水合物稳定带厚度与海底温度呈良好的线性负相关性。(2)水深超过600 m的海域具备形成天然气水合物的温压条件;超过600 m水深的海域水合物稳定带厚度大部分超过 100 m,其中西北部稳定带的最大厚度超过300 m,是有利的水合物勘探区。(3)华光凹陷1.05 Ma BP以来天然气水合物稳定带厚度经历了快速增厚–窄幅变化–快速减薄和恢复的过程。麻坑群与水合物稳定变化敏感区在空间上具有较好的叠合关系。结合前人的研究成果,推测其形成与天然气水合物的分解释放有关。     

Neural network and wavelet conjunction model for modelling monthly level fluctuations in Turkey

This paper proposes the application of a conjunction model (neuro‐wavelet) for forecasting monthly lake levels. The neuro‐wavelet (NW) conjunction model is improved combining two methods, discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van, which is the biggest lake in Turkey, and Lake Egirdir. The accuracy of the NW model is investigated for 1‐ and 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting. The root mean square errors, mean absolute relative errors and determination coefficient statistics are used for evaluating the accuracy of NW models. The results of the proposed models are compared with those of the neural networks. In the 1‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 87–34% and 86–31% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. In the 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 34–48% and 30‐46% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. The comparison results indicate that the suggested model could significantly increase the short‐ and long‐term forecast accuracy. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

快速射电暴的数据统计

快速射电暴于2007年首次在脉冲星巡天的历史数据中被发现,是一种在射电波段观测到的具有色散量的单个强脉冲,其特征为持续时间仅为若干毫秒,峰值流量密度可达到央斯基量级。类似于射电脉冲星的单个脉冲,但其色散显著超过同一视线方向上银河系内星际介质的预期最大值。对截止2018年6月帕克斯望远镜、绿岸望远镜、阿雷西博射电望远镜、UTMOST望远镜和ASKAP望远镜已探测到的52例快速射电暴进行了观测量统计分析,根据模型扣除银河系星际介质导致的色散量后,快速射电暴平均色散量为584.5 pc·cm^-3,暗示着快速射电暴来自河外。通过最佳拟合估算红移幂律分布谱dN/dF_obs=4.14±1.30×F■sky^-1·day^-1。根据分析结果预计,FAST望远镜使用19波束接收机后,其多科学目标同时巡天在经过一年时间内能发现大约10个快速射电暴,将有效地扩大样本数量,为快速射电暴研究提供重要信息。     

Spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and adjacent regions: Implication for future seismic hazard

The study deals spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters like annual and 100-years mode along with their 90% probability of not being exceeded (NBE) in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and adjoining regions. For this purpose, we applied a straightforward and most robust method known as Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution of extreme values (GIII). A homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1900–2010 with magnitude M_W ⩾ 4.0 is utilized to estimate these earthquake hazard parameters. An equal grid point mesh, of 1° longitude X 1° latitude, is chosen to produce detailed earthquake hazard maps. This performance allows analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and representation of their regional variations as contour maps. The estimated result of annual mode with 90% probability of NBE is expected to exceed the values of M_W 6.0 in the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges of Pakistan and northwestern part of the Nepal and surroundings in the examined region. The 100-years mode with 90% probability of NBE is expected to exceed the value of M_W 8.0 in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya with Caucasus mountain belt, the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges of Pakistan, northwestern part of the Nepal and surroundings, the Kangra–Himanchal Pradesh and Kashmir of India. The estimated high values of earthquake hazard parameters are mostly correlated with the main tectonic regimes of the examined region. The spatial variations of earthquake hazard parameters reveal that the examined region exhibits more complexity and has high crustal heterogeneity. The spatial maps provide a brief atlas of the earthquake hazard in the region.     

Energy distributions of the large-scale horizontal currents caused by wind in the baroclinic ocean

Wind is the main energy source for the generation of the internal waves and the ocean mixing. Wunsch[1] estimated that about 1 TW (1 TW = 1012 W) energy was transported into the ocean from the winds by us-ing the altimeter data. Watanabe et al.[2] numerically calculated that the mixing processes obtained 0.7 TW energy from the global wind, which afforded most of the energy needed by the maintenance of the Merid-ional Overturning Circulation (MOC). During the past 50 years, in the Norther…     

宁夏短期天气预报业务流程

介绍了以宁夏ＭＯＳ预报结果为基本指导产品、结合宁夏气象业务具体情况、通过二次开发建立在微机上的新型短期天气预报业务流程。该流程的建立,使宁夏短期天气预报人员基本摆脱了传统的纸上作业而转向新型的计算机预报平台,使宁夏短期天气预报的自动化水平上了一个新台阶。     

时序分析在危岩体监测数据处理中的应用

引入时间序列分析进行危岩体监测数据的处理,建立了危岩体变形的动态模型,取得了较好的拟会与预报精度。     

Spatial, temporal and diel variations of fish assemblages at two sandy beaches in the Sepetiba Bay, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Fish assemblages from two beaches, one in the inner and the other in the outer Sepetiba Bay (latitude: 22°54′–23°04′S; longitude: 43°34′–44°10′W), Southeast Brazil, were sampled by beach seine net, simultaneously, on both seasonal and diel scales, between August 1998 and June 1999. Sites were selected to encompass different environmental conditions which reflect the two bay zones, thus providing a comprehensive assessment of the factors influencing surf zone fish assemblages, and their spatial, seasonal and diel variations. A total of 55 fish species was recorded, mostly young-of-the-year. Anchoa tricolor, Micropogonias furnieri, Gerres aprion, Diapterus rhombeus, Harengula clupeola, Atherinella brasiliensis and Mugil liza were numerically dominant and contributed to 95.2% of the total fish catches. Strong differences in fish assemblages were observed between the two areas, with higher number of species in the outer bay. Increases in fish numbers occurred in winter, while the highest biomass occurred in winter and summer. Transparency, followed by salinity, was responsible for most of the spatial variability and played an important role in structuring fish assemblages. Overall, diel patterns did not reveal any significant trends; however, if we consider each season separately, an increase in fish numbers during the day with peak at sunset was observed in winter, and a higher biomass occurred at night in winter and summer. Species preferences for various combinations of environmental variables are responsible for shifts in the structure and overall abundance of assemblages and dictated some patterns. The sciaenid M. furnieri, the second most abundant species, occurred only in the inner zone, being more abundant in winter. The species of Engraulidae were more abundant in the outer zone in winter/spring during the day. The gerreids G. aprion and D. rhombeus occurred mainly in summer. Overall, temporal fluctuations act more at a specific level than at a structural one, and may be linked to some particular stages of the fish life cycle, but do not significantly influence the spatial organization.     

冀北—辽西早白垩世沉积有机质特征与古气候环境演变

本文对冀北—辽西地区早白垩世沉积盆地富有机质沉积岩进行了初步有机地球化学分析研究。结果显示,冀北—辽西沉积盆沉积有机质特征在时间和空间上存在很大差异,代表白垩系早期沉积的滦平盆地大北沟组有机质丰度低,这不仅显示其所代表的沉积相带不利于有机质的聚集,也反映了当时生物不够繁盛;大店子组时期沉积相带发生了变化,有机质类型随着发生了变化,丰度有所增高,但总体上显示环境条件不利于生物的发育和繁盛。到了桥头组和义县组沉积岩有机质丰度大幅升高,表明生物界非常繁盛,古气候环境有利于有机质的大量生成和堆积,总体上反映了温湿的气候条件;但同时也存在较为频繁或交替性寒冷气候波动,具体的古气候环境状态尚需进一步深入研究。