Assessment of rainfall spatial variability and its influence on runoff modelling: A case study in the Brue catchment,UK

This study explores rainfall spatial variability and its influence on runoff modelling. A novel assessment scheme integrated with coefficient of variance and Moran's I is introduced to describe effective rainfall spatial variability. Coefficient of variance is widely accepted to identify rainfall variability through rainfall intensity, whereas Moran's I reflects rainfall spatial autocorrelation. This new assessment framework combines these two indicators to assess the spatial variability derived from both rainfall intensity and distribution, which are crucial in determining the time and magnitude of runoff generation. Four model structures embedded in the Variable Infiltration Capacity model are adopted for hydrological modelling in the Brue catchment of England. The models are assigned with 1, 3, 8, and 27 hydrological response units, respectively, and diverse rainfall spatial information for 236 events are extracted from 1995. This study investigates the model performance of different partitioning based on rainfall spatial variability through peak volume (Q_p) and time to peak (T_p), along with the rainfall event process. The results show that models associated with dense spatial partitioning are broadly capable of capturing more spatial information with better performance. It is unnecessary to utilize models with high spatial density for simple rainfall events, though they show distinct advantages on complex events. With additional spatial information, Q_p experiences a notable improvement over T_p. Moreover, seasonal patterns signified by the assessment scheme imply the feasibility of seasonal models.     

Evaluation of 2D models for the prediction of surface depression storage using realistic reference values

Depression storage (DS) is the maximum storage of precipitation and runoff in the soil surface at a given slope. The DS is determined by soil roughness that in agricultural soils is largely affected by tillage. The direct measurement of DS is not straightforward because of the natural permeability of the soil. Therefore, DS has generally been estimated from 2D/3D empirical relationships and numerical algorithms based on roughness indexes and height measurements of the soil surface, respectively. The objective of this work was to evaluate the performance of some 2D models for DS, using direct and reliable measurements of DS in an agricultural soil as reference values. The study was carried out in experimental microplots where DS was measured in six situations resulting from the combination of three types of tillage carried out parallel and perpendicular to the main slope. Those data were used as reference to evaluate four empirical models and a numerical method. Longitudinal altitudinal profiles of the relief were obtained by a laser profilometer. Infiltration measurements were carried out before and after tillage. The DS was largely affected by tillage and its direction. Highest values of DS are found on rougher surfaces mainly when macroforms cut off the dominant slope. The empirical models had a limited performance while the numerical method was the most effective, even so, with an important variability. In addition, a correct hydrological management should take into account that each type of soil tillage affects infiltration rate differently. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding fen hydrology across multiple scales

Fens, which are among the most biodiverse of wetland types in the USA, typically occur in glacial landscapes characterized by geo‐morphologic variability at multiple spatial scales. As a result, the hydrologic systems that sustain fens are complex and not well understood. Traditional approaches for characterizing such systems use simplifying assumptions that cannot adequately capture the impact of variability in geology and topography. In this study, a hierarchical, multi‐scale groundwater modelling approach coupled with a geologic model is used to understand the hydrology of a fen in Michigan. This approach uses high‐resolution data to simulate the multi‐scale topographic and hydrologic framework and lithologic data from more than 8500 boreholes in a statewide water well database to capture the complex geology. A hierarchy of dynamically linked models is developed that simulates groundwater flow at all scales of interest and to delineate the areas that contribute groundwater to the fen. The results show the fen receiving groundwater from multiple sources: an adjacent wetland, local recharge, a nearby lake and a regional groundwater mound. Water from the regional mound flows to an intermediate source before reaching the fen, forming a ‘cascading’ connection, while other sources provide water through ‘direct’ connections. The regional mound is also the source of water to other fens, streams and lakes in this area, thus creating a large, interconnected hydrologic system that sustains the entire ecosystem. In order to sustainably manage such systems, conservation efforts must include both site‐based protection and management, as well as regional protection and management of groundwater source areas. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Crustal‐mantle lithosphere decoupling as a control on Variscan metamorphism in the Eastern Alps

Mica schists of the Variscan Austroalpine Ötztal basement (Eastern Alps) contain synkinematically grown garnet porphyroblasts showing three zones with complex inclusion trails. Staurolite, kyanite and sillimanite grew over the main schistosity that envelops the garnet porphyroblasts. The mineral‐forming reaction sequences modelled in the MnKFMASH and KFMASH systems show that garnet of zone 1 grew at approximately 1300 MPa, whereas zone 2 and zone 3 grew during substantial decompression and partial thermal relaxation. For the growth of staurolite, kyanite and sillimanite, this modelling shows that thermal relaxation continued after decompression under only slightly changing pressure conditions, until the peak temperature conditions of Variscan metamorphism were reached. The result of this modelling is a pressure‐temperature‐time (P–T–t) heating path that is consistent with a tectonic interpretation implying thickening of the lithosphere during continental collision and subsequent mantle ‐ crustal lithosphere decoupling plus extension. A direct implication of this model is that the heat budget of Variscan metamorphism was controlled by the convective replacement of the thickened lithospheric root with asthenospheric material.     

Study of discontinuities in hydrological data using catastrophe theory

Abstract

Modelling and prediction of hydrological processes (e.g. rainfall–runoff) can be influenced by discontinuities in observed data, and one particular case may arise when the time scale (i.e. resolution) is coarse (e.g. monthly). This study investigates the application of catastrophe theory to examine its suitability to identify possible discontinuities in the rainfall–runoff process. A stochastic cusp catastrophe model is used to study possible discontinuities in the monthly rainfall–runoff process at the Aji River basin in Azerbaijan, Iran. Monthly-averaged rainfall and flow data observed over a period of 20 years (1981–2000) are analysed using the Cuspfit program. In this model, rainfall serves as a control variable and runoff as a behavioural variable. The performance of this model is evaluated using four measures: correlation coefficient, log-likelihood, Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The results indicate the presence of discontinuities in the rainfall–runoff process, with a significant sudden jump in flow (cusp signal) when rainfall reaches a threshold value. The performance of the model is also found to be better than that of linear and logistic models. The present results, though preliminary, are promising in the sense that catastrophe theory can play a possible role in the study of hydrological systems and processes, especially when the data are noisy.

Citation Ghorbani, M. A., Khatibi, R., Sivakumar, B. & Cobb, L. (2010) Study of discontinuities in hydrological data using catastrophe theory. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1137–1151.     

A spatially distributed Clark’s unit hydrograph based hybrid hydrologic model (Distributed-Clark)

ABSTRACT

A hybrid hydrologic model (Distributed-Clark), which is a lumped conceptual and distributed feature model, was developed based on the combined concept of Clark’s unit hydrograph and its spatial decomposition methods, incorporating refined spatially variable flow dynamics to implement hydrological simulation for spatially distributed rainfall–runoff flow. In Distributed-Clark, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number method is utilized to estimate spatially distributed runoff depth and a set of separated unit hydrographs is used for runoff routing to obtain a direct runoff flow hydrograph. Case studies (four watersheds in the central part of the USA) using spatially distributed (Thiessen polygon-based) rainfall data of storm events were used to evaluate the model performance. Results demonstrate relatively good fit to observed streamflow, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (E_NS) of 0.84 and coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.86, as well as a better fit in comparison with outputs of spatially averaged rainfall data simulations for two models including HEC-HMS.     

Hydrological extremes in a southwestern Ontario river basin under future climate conditions/Extrêmes hydrologiques dans un basin versant du sud-ouest de l'Ontario sous conditions climatiques futures

Abstract

The global climate change may have serious impacts on the frequency, magnitude, location and duration of hydrological extremes. Changed hydrological extremes will have important implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood-plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of a changed climate on the timing and magnitude of hydrological extremes in a densely populated and urbanized river basin in southwestern Ontario, Canada. An ensemble of future climate scenarios is developed using a weather generating algorithm, linked with GCM outputs. These climate scenarios are then transformed into basin runoff by a semi-distributed hydrological model of the study area. The results show that future maximum river flows in the study area will be less extreme and more variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence, than they are at present. Low flows may become less extreme and variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence. According to the evaluated scenarios, climate change may have favourable impacts on the distribution of hydrological extremes in the study area.     

Impacts anthropiques sur les termes du bilan hydrologique d’un aquifère alluvial dans le Nordeste semi-aride,Brésil / Human impacts on components of hydrological balance in an alluvial aquifer in the semiarid Northeast,Brazil

Abstract

Abstract The exploitation of an alluvial aquifer (2 × 10⁶ m³) has been developed since 1998 in the Valley of Forquilha (Quixeramobim, State of Ceará). For this purpose, 165 wells were drilled along the 23 km of the valley that supplies 500 families and their farms. Monthly monitoring of piezometric and electrical conductivity (2000–2003) show seasonal variations in the water volume (35%) and in the mean value of the conductivity (800–1200 µS cm^-1). A conceptual hydrogeological model was developed. Analysis of the data and simulations highlight that the recharge of the aquifer is mainly due to infiltration from the river in the rainy season, which is of the order of 1% of the rain over the catchment area (195 km²). The abstractions increase the recharge between 30 and 60%. The model makes it possible to propose scenarios of sustainable exploitation of the water resource in the catchment. For the period between 1970 and 1988, other simulations show that it would have been possible to maintain irrigated cultures on 75 ha for 80% of the time. During the remaining 20%, the water level is too low, and farmers would have to reduce the irrigated area.     

Geospatially based distributed rainfall‐runoff modelling for simulation of internal and outlet responses in a semi‐forested lower Himalayan watershed

This study presents a Geographic Information System (GIS)‐based distributed rainfall‐runoff model for simulating surface flows in small to large watersheds during isolated storm events. The model takes into account the amount of interception storage to be filled using a modified Merriam ( 1960 ) approach before estimating infiltration by the Smith and Parlange ( 1978 ) method. The mechanics of overland and channel flow are modelled by the kinematic wave approximation of the Saint Venant equations which are then numerically solved by the weighted four‐point implicit finite difference method. In this modelling the watershed was discretized into overland planes and channels using the algorithms proposed by Garbrecht and Martz ( 1999 ). The model code was first validated by comparing the model output with an analytical solution for a hypothetical plane. Then the model was tested in a medium‐sized semi‐forested watershed of Pathri Rao located in the Shivalik ranges of the Garhwal Himalayas, India. Initially, a local sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the parameters to which the model outputs like runoff volume, peak flow and time to peak flow are sensitive. Before going for model validation, calibration was performed using the Ordered‐Physics‐based Parameter Adjustment (OPPA) method. The proposed Physically Based Distributed (PBD) model was then evaluated both at the watershed outlet as well as at the internal gauging station, making this study a first of its kind in Indian watersheds. The results of performance evaluation indicate that the model has simulated the runoff hydrographs reasonably well within the watershed as well as at the watershed outlet with the same set of calibrated parameters. The model also simulates, realistically, the temporal variation of the spatial distribution of runoff over the watershed and the same has been illustrated graphically. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.