Numerical simulations of anomalies of precipitation and surface air temperature in china in the summer of 1997

1.IntroductionStatisticalstudiesdemonstratedthatinEINinoyearstheprecipitationinsummerintheChangjiangRiverandHuaiheRiverBasinsisprobablyabovethenormalwhileitispossiblybelowthenormalinthenorthernChinaandtheHetao(theGreatBendoftheHuangheRiver)region.ThetemperatureinsummerisusuallylowerthannormalinEastAsia,especiallyinNortheastChina.Therewere6yearswithseverelowtemperaturesince1951,andtheyare1954,1957,1964,1972,1976and1983,whichareallrelatedtotheEINinoyears(seeHuangetal.,1989,1992;Xiangand…     

Multi-Source Emission Determination Using an Inverse-Dispersion Technique

Inverse-dispersion calculations can be used to infer atmospheric emission rates through a combination of downwind gas concentrations and dispersion model predictions. With multiple concentration sensors downwind of a compound source (whose component positions are known) it is possible to calculate the component emissions. With this in mind, a field experiment was conducted to examine the feasibility of such multi-source inferences, using four synthetic area sources and eight concentration sensors arranged in different configurations. Multi-source problems tend to be mathematically ill-conditioned, as expressed by the condition number κ. In our most successful configuration (average κ = 4.2) the total emissions from all sources were deduced to within 10% on average, while component emissions were deduced to within 50%. In our least successful configuration (average κ = 91) the total emissions were calculated to within only 50%, and component calculations were highly inaccurate. Our study indicates that the most accurate multi-source inferences will occur if each sensor is influenced by only a single source. A “progressive” layout is the next best: one sensor is positioned to “see” only one source, the next sensor is placed to see the first source and another, a third sensor is placed to see the previous two plus a third, and so on. When it is not possible to isolate any sources κ is large and the accuracy of a multi-source inference is doubtful.     

江淮流域一次特大暴雨的数值模拟及动力分析

以周晓平研制的有限区域细网格数值模式为基础，编制成一个套网格模式，并对１９９１年７月２～３日发生在江淮流域的特大暴雨过程，进行了数值模拟和动力分析。结果表明：低空急流加强，输送了大量暖湿空气并激发强烈的上升运动是造成该区暴雨的主要原因；在该过程中，热成风平衡遭到破坏，其非热成风平衡部分伴随相应的二级环流，也有利于垂直运动的产生。     

WRF-Hydro模型与新安江模型在陈河流域的应用对比

本文利用全球陆面数据同化系统与降雨观测数据,以陕西半湿润区陈河流域为研究对象,驱动WRF-Hydro模型,研究该模型的表现和适用性,并在结构、参数、输入输出和模拟结果方面与新安江模型对比.考虑到次表面层与实际包气带的区别,引入土层厚度乘子ZSOILFAC对前者进行等比缩放,发现其与新安江模型反推包气带的厚度有较好的一致性.研究表明:在陈河流域中WRF-Hydro计算步长须在建议值的基础上缩小; WRF-Hydro模型善于模拟洪水细节,新安江模型表现好且稳定;前者的径流深和洪峰合格率平于或略低于后者;在两个指标均合格的洪水中,前者平均均方根误差比后者小21.5%,但对于其他洪水,前者平均均方根误差比后者大56.2%; WRF-Hydro在洪水起涨时刻模拟较好,表现出其在中小流域应用的潜力.     

A constitutive model for coal-fouled ballast capturing the effects of particle degradation

Rail tracks undergo degradation owing to particle breakage and fouling of ballast by various fines including coal and subgrade soil. As the ballast becomes fouled, its strength and drainage capacity are compromised, sometimes resulting in differential settlement and reduced track stability. This paper demonstrates a continuum mechanics based framework to evaluate the detrimental effect of fines on the strength, deformation and degradation of coal-fouled ballast under monotonic loading. An elastoplastic constitutive model that considers the effect of fines content and energy consumption associated with particle breakage during shearing is presented. This multiphase constitutive model is developed within a critical state framework based on a kinematic-type yield locus and a modified stress-dilatancy approach. A general formulation for the rate of ballast breakage and coal particle breakage during triaxial shearing is presented and incorporated into the plastic flow rule to accurately predict the stress–strain response of coal-fouled ballast at various confining pressures. The behaviour of ballast at various levels of fouling is analysed and validated by experimental data.     

Assimilating snow observations to snow interception process simulations

Snow interception is a crucial hydrological process in cold regions needleleaf forests, but is rarely measured directly. Indirect estimates of snow interception can be made by measuring the difference in the increase in snow accumulation between the forest floor and a nearby clearing over the course of a storm. Pairs of automatic weather stations with acoustic snow depth sensors provide an opportunity to estimate this, if snow density can be estimated reliably. Three approaches for estimating fresh snow density were investigated: weighted post-storm density increments from the physically based Snobal model, fresh snow density estimated empirically from air temperature (Hedstrom, N. R., et al. [1998]. Hydrological Processes, 12, 1611–1625), and fresh snow density estimated empirically from air temperature and wind speed (Jordan, R. E., et al. [1999]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, 7785–7806). Automated snow depth observations from adjacent forest and clearing sites and estimated snow densities were used to determine snowstorm snow interception in a subalpine forest in the Canadian Rockies, Alberta, Canada. Then the estimated snow interception and measured interception information from a weighed, suspended tree and a time-lapse camera were assimilated into a model, which was created using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM), using Ensemble Kalman Filter or a simple rule-based direct insertion method. Interception determined using density estimates from the Hedstrom-Pomeroy fresh snow density equation agreed best with observations. Assimilating snow interception information from automatic snow depth measurements improved modelled snow interception timing by 7% and magnitude by 13%, compared to an open loop simulation driven by a numerical weather model; its accuracy was close to that simulated using locally observed meteorological data. Assimilation of tree-measured snow interception improved the snow interception simulation timing and magnitude by 18 and 19%, respectively. Time-lapse camera snow interception information assimilation improved the snow interception simulation timing by 32% and magnitude by 7%. The benefits of assimilation were greatly influenced by assimilation frequency and quality of the forcing data.     

NEAT approach for testing and validation of geospatial network agent-based model processes: case study of influenza spread

ABSTRACT

Agent-based models (ABM) are used to represent a variety of complex systems by simulating the local interactions between system components from which observable spatial patterns at the system-level emerge. Thus, the degree to which these interactions are represented correctly must be evaluated. Networks can be used to discretely represent and quantify interactions between system components and the emergent system structure. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to develop and implement a novel validation approach called the NEtworks for ABM Testing (NEAT) that integrates geographic information science, ABM approaches, and spatial network representations to simulate complex systems as measurable and dynamic spatial networks. The simulated spatial network structures are measured using graph theory and compared with empirical regularities of observed real networks. The approach is implemented to validate a theoretical ABM representing the spread of influenza in the City of Vancouver, Canada. Results demonstrate that the NEAT approach can validate whether the internal model processes are represented realistically, thus better enabling the use of ABMs in decision-making processes.     

Ultrahigh‐temperature metamorphism in the Tuguiwula area,Khondalite Belt,North China Craton

In this study, sapphirine‐bearing granulites and sapphirine‐absent garnet–sillimanite gneisses from the Tuguiwula area in the eastern segment of the Khondalite Belt, North China Craton (NCC) are interpreted to show a P–T evolution involving cooling at pressures of 8–9 kbar from >960°C to the solidus (~820°C) and late subsolidus decompression. This interpretation is based on the sequence of mineral appearance and thermodynamic modelling of phase equilibria. Sapphirine is observed to coexist with spinel within the peak assemblages. This observation conflicts with the traditional view that spinel generally appears prior to sapphirine and thus indicates pre‐T_max compression. For ultrahigh‐temperature (UHT) metapelites at Tuguiwula, a clockwise P–T path may be more likely, which would be consistent with the clockwise P–T evolution of the extensive “normal” granulites (T_max <900°C) and UHT granulites at other localities in the eastern segment of the Khondalite Belt. At Tuguiwula, for UHT metapelites with low bulk‐rock Mg/(Mg+Fe^T), the oxidation state/Fe³⁺ content is interpreted to be a significant factor in controlling the mineral assemblages. We find that these compositions tend to contain sapphirine under oxidized conditions but spinel (without sapphirine) under reduced conditions. This difference may account for the simultaneous presence of both sapphirine‐bearing UHT granulites and sapphirine‐absent garnet–sillimanite UHT gneisses at Tuguiwula. LA‐ICP‐MS U–Pb dating of metamorphic zircon in the UHT metapelites yields mean ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages of c. 1.92 Ga (two samples), which are interpreted to record the timing of cooling of the UHT rocks to the solidus. The UHT metamorphism is interpreted to have been generated by mantle upwelling and emplacement of mafic magmas within a post‐orogenic setting.     

Thermobarometric constraints on pressure variations across the Plattengneiss shear zone of the Eastern Alps: implications for exhumation models during Eoalpine subduction

Forward and inverse mineral equilibria modelling of metapelitic rocks in the hangingwall and footwall of the Plattengneiss, a major shear zone in the Eastern Alps, is used to constrain their tectonometamorphic evolution and assess models for their exhumation. Forward (pseudosection) modelling of two metapelitic rocks suggests a steep clockwise P–T path with a near‐isothermal decompression segment from a pressure peak at ~18–19 kbar and 670 °C to the metamorphic peak at 680–720 °C and 11–13 kbar. A subsequent decrease to 600–645 °C and 8–9 kbar is inferred from the late growth of staurolite in some samples. Conventional thermobarometric calculations (inverse modelling) on 18 samples with the inferred peak assemblage garnet + plagioclase + muscovite + biotite + quartz + rutile ± ilmenite ± kyanite are associated with large 2σ uncertainties, and absolute pressures calculated for all samples are statistically indistinguishable. However, calculations constraining relative pressure differences (ΔP) between samples sharing a common mineral assemblage are associated with much smaller uncertainties and yield pressure differences that are statistically meaningful. Although the overall pattern is complicated, the results suggest a pressure gradient of up to 3 kbar across the shear zone that is consistent with volume loss and a model of exhumation related to slab extraction for the Plattengneiss shear zone.     

Testing a spatially distributed tracer‐aided runoff model in a snow‐influenced catchment: Effects of multicriteria calibration on streamwater ages

Integrating stable isotope tracers into rainfall‐runoff models allows investigation of water partitioning and direct estimation of travel times and water ages. Tracer data have valuable information content that can be used to constrain models and, in integration with hydrometric observations, test the conceptualization of catchment processes in model structure and parameterization. There is great potential in using tracer‐aided modelling in snow‐influenced catchments to improve understanding of these catchments' dynamics and sensitivity to environmental change. We used the spatially distributed tracer‐aided rainfall‐runoff (STARR) model to simulate the interactions between water storage, flux, and isotope dynamics in a snow‐influenced, long‐term monitored catchment in Ontario, Canada. Multiple realizations of the model were achieved using a combination of single and multiple objectives as calibration targets. Although good simulations of hydrometric targets such as discharge and snow water equivalent could be achieved by local calibration alone, adequate capture of the stream isotope dynamics was predicated on the inclusion of isotope data in the calibration. Parameter sensitivity was highest, and most local, for single calibration targets. With multiple calibration targets, key sensitive parameters were still identifiable in snow and runoff generation routines. Water ages derived from flux tracking subroutines in the model indicated a catchment where runoff is dominated by younger waters, particularly during spring snowmelt. However, resulting water ages were most sensitive to the partitioning of runoff sources from soil and groundwater sources, which was most realistically achieved when isotopes were included in the calibration. Given the paucity of studies where hydrological models explicitly incorporate tracers in snow‐influenced regions, this study using STARR is an important contribution to satisfactorily simulating snowpack dynamics and runoff generation processes, while simultaneously capturing stable isotope variability in snow‐influenced catchments.