基于细化分层法探讨面波频散曲线反演参数的简化

常规频散曲线反演过程中需要不停地改变分层数、层厚度和层速度等参数,实现过程相对繁琐,而采用细化分层法对反演参数进行简化则避免了上述缺点。具体思路为:根据目的层探测深度(如20m)将地下介质分为若干个(20个)厚度为1m的薄层和1个均匀半空间层(共21层),这样在反演中分层数和层厚度均为已知参量,反演过程只需修改速度参数即可,避免了改变分层数和层厚度等参数,显著简化了反演计算过程。正演计算和反演结果均表明:细化分层与实际分层计算出的频散曲线是等效的,细化分层反演结果的总体效果与真实模型非常接近,这说明细化分层方法用于频散曲线反演是切实可行且有效的;将地下介质划分为1m厚的薄层,反演后每层均可得到1个横波速度,能满足反演分辨率的要求;由于实际地下介质的速度是随深度渐变的,细化分层后比按频散曲线拐点分层(每分层的厚度可能是几米或几十米,同一分层内介质的横波速度相等)更接近实际情况。     

Comparison of P‐wave attenuation models of wave‐induced flow

Wave‐induced oscillatory fluid flow in the vicinity of inclusions embedded in porous rocks is one of the main causes for P‐wave dispersion and attenuation at seismic frequencies. Hence, the P‐wave velocity depends on wave frequency, porosity, saturation, and other rock parameters. Several analytical models quantify this wave‐induced flow attenuation and result in characteristic velocity–saturation relations. Here, we compare some of these models by analyzing their low‐ and high‐frequency asymptotic behaviours and by applying them to measured velocity–saturation relations. Specifically, the Biot–Rayleigh model considering spherical inclusions embedded in an isotropic rock matrix is compared with White's and Johnson's models of patchy saturation. The modeling of laboratory data for tight sandstone and limestone indicates that, by selecting appropriate inclusion size, the Biot‐Rayleigh predictions are close to the measured values, particularly for intermediate and high water saturations.     

Why are halo coronal mass ejections faster?

Halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been to be significantly faster than normal CMEs, which is a long-standing puzzle. In order to solve the puzzle, we first investigate the observed properties of 31 limb CMEs that clearly display loopshaped frontal loops. The observational results show a strong tendency that slower CMEs are weaker in white-light intensity. Then, we perform a Monte Carlo simulation of 20000 artificial limb CMEs that have an average velocity of ～523km s -1. The Thomson scattering of thes...     

基于MGR模型的我国大陆地区各地震带1970年以来震级-频度关系和震级上限

本文利用两种常用的NGR和MGR模型,对我国大陆地区1970年以来各地震带的震级-频度关系和震级上限进行了修定.结果表明,MGR模型能很好地描述非线性的震级-频度关系,因此该模型更适合于我国大陆地区各地震带ML3.0以上地震的震级-频度关系,用MGR方法拟合确定震级上限时,样本量越高拟合的结果越准确.     

GDELT数据网络化挖掘与国际关系分析

21世纪以来的国际关系错综复杂、瞬息万变,给世界的经济、安全、外交等带来了深刻变化。这些变化对中国的内外政策产生了重大影响。全面及时地分析国际关系及其变化特征,对于中国的经济和外交发展规划具有重要参考价值。国际关系研究具有复杂性、及时性、时空性等特点,迫切需要时空大数据分析技术为其提供新的思路和技术手段。大众媒体如报纸、广播等记录着世界上发生的各种各样的事件,蕴含着丰富的信息,相对于记录个人活动的社交媒体数据,其更加适合于对人类社会进行大规模和长时间的分析。GDELT是一个免费开放的新闻数据库,它实时监测世界上印刷、广播、网络媒体中的新闻,对其进行文本分析并提取出人物、地点、组织和事件等关键信息。本文利用复杂网络的理论和方法对GDELT进行网络化挖掘并进一步分析国家关系。首先利用该数据构建国家交互网络,然后通过网络特征统计分析国家之间的交互关系,最后探测国家冲突事件交互网络的时序变化。研究发现：① 国家交互网络具有无标度特性,网络连接在整体和局部上都呈现出不均匀性,少数国家与其他国家有大量交互,大多数国家与其他国家的交互很少;一个国家与少数国家有大量交互,而与大多数国家的交互很少。② 国家冲突事件交互网络的突然变化往往对应一些重大事件。本文的研究可以为大数据时代的国际关系探索提供一个新的视角,同时也为新闻媒体数据的分析提供参考。     

A Statistical Study on the Geomagnetically Induced Current Events Driven by Earth-directed Full-Halo Coronal Mass Ejections

Solar activities can cause the anomalies of electric power transmission systems, especially, for an extra-long distance transmission system. Using the data of coronal mass ejection (CME) from SOHO/LASCO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph), and the data of the geomagnetically induced current (GIC) and geomagnetic storm from the North China Electric Power University and Finnish Meteorological Institute, respectively, we analyze some important observational features and physical properties of the earth-directed halo CMEs associated with the GIC events. After classifying the observed halo CMEs according to their symmetry, it is found that the halo CMEs associated with GIC events are mainly the 3 types: completely symmetric, brightness-asymmetric, and outline-asymmetric. The geomagnetically induced current events driven by the three different types of halo CMEs have different characteristics in the intensity, duration, and period. We ?nd that the brightness-asymmetric halo CMEs are most likely to cause the major damage to the transmission systems. And that the geomagnetically induced current has also a good correlation with the time variation of geomagnetic ?eld.     

面波频散反演的数值模拟

大量的数值模拟表明,SVD和LSQRD在面波频散网格反演两步法中的应用效果都很好.但SVD可以用分辨矩阵、信息矩阵和协方差矩阵对解估计进行数学上客观有效的评价;而对于大型稀疏方程组的求解,LSQRD确是一种内存需求小、计算速度快以及分辨抗噪能力都较强的算法 .在现有计算机运算速度较快、内存可以扩充较大的条件下,实测数据量不很大时,应采用SVD算法进行线性反演.     

高分辨区域输送模式中不同输送格式的对比试验

本文对两种输送格式在理论试验的基础上，引入19层高分辨区域输送模式EM3，由中尺度模式（MM4)提供实例输送风场，积分至13、18、30、50、70小时，作分析和对比数值试验。采用的两种格式是:二阶动量矩守恒的Prather格式（以下简称为SOM)及通量订正的Smolar格式。数值试验结果表明，高精度的SOM格式使数值扩散减小一个量级， 使输送物质（SO#-[2])中心浓度比Smolar格式增大3～4倍， 采用SOM格式还明显改进了浓度中心水平平均运动轨迹的模拟精度，选择高精度的平流格式是改进模拟结果的重要途径。     

Operational Evaluation of the Quantitative Precipitation Estimation by a CINRAD-SA Dual Polarization Radar System

In this paper, the quantitative precipitation estimation based on hydrometeor classification (HCA-QPE) algorithm was proposed for the first operational S band dual-polarization radar promoted by the CINRAD/SA radar of China. The HCA-QPE algorithm, the localized Colorado State University-Hydrometeor Identification of Rainfall (CSU-HIDRO) and Joint Polarization Experiment (JPOLE) algorithms, and the dynamic Z-R relationships based on variational correction QPE (DRVC-QPE) algorithm were evaluated with the rainfall events from March 1 to October 30, 2017 in the Guangdong Province. The results indicated that even though the HCA-QPE algorithm did not use the observed rainfall data for correction, its estimation accuracy was better than that of the DRVC-QPE algorithm when the rainfall rate was greater than 5mm h^(-1); and the stronger the rainfall intensity, the greater the QPE improvement. And the HCA-QPE algorithm worked better than the localized CSU-HIDRO and JPOLE algorithms. This study preliminarily verified the improved accuracy of QPE by a dual-polarization radar system modified from CINRAD-SA radar.     

CFD simulation of airflow over a regular array of cubes. Part II: analysis of spatial average properties

In the first part of this study, results of a computational fluid dynamics simulation over an array of cubes have been validated against a set of wind-tunnel measurements. In Part II, such numerical results are used to investigate spatially-averaged properties of the flow and passive tracer dispersion that are of interest for high resolution urban mesoscale modelling (e.g. non resolved obstacle approaches). The results show that vertical profiles of mean horizontal wind are linear within the canopy and logarithmic above. The drag coefficient, derived from the numerical results using the classical formula for the drag force, is height dependent (it decreases with height). However, a modification of the formula is proposed (accounting for subgrid velocity scales) that makes the drag coefficient constant with height. Results also show that the dispersive fluxes are similar in magnitude to the turbulent fluxes, and that they play a very important role within the canopy. Vertical profiles of turbulent length scales (to be used in k–l closure schemes, where k is the turbulent kinetic energy and l a turbulent length scale) are also derived. Finally the distribution of the values around the mean over the reference volumes are analysed for wind and tracer concentrations.