发挥地震学会优势促进防震减灾工作--关于加强山西省地震学会管理工作的几点思考

随着我国机构改革的不断深入和社会主义市场经济体制的逐步建立和完善，地震学会同其他社会团体一样将成为现代社会的支柱之一。以山西省地震学会目前的工作现状为例，指出学会在管理体制、运行机制和活动方式等方面存在的问题，提出了发展思路及建议。     

试论实施防震减灾社会动员的途径与方法

0前言中国是一个多地震国家,频繁而严重的地震灾害给人民生命和财产带来了巨大的损失,防震减灾任务任重而道远。回良玉副总理2004年在全国防震减灾工作会议讲话中指出:“防震减灾是全社会共同的责任,要广泛动员社会各方的力量,积极投入到这项事业中来,使防震减灾逐步成为全社会的自觉行动。”因此,总结近40年我国防震减灾工作和改革开放的实践经验,对社会公众进行各种防震减灾宣传教育,广泛动员全社会力量,建立健全防震减灾社会动员机制,增强全社会防震减灾意识,是提高我国综合防震减灾能力,有效地促进地震灾害综合防御各项措施落实的重要途…     

我国地震海浪初步分析

总结了我国地震海浪的25次记录,在做初步分析后认为我国的地震海浪多由近海海洋地震引起,其多发地区为渤海沿岸与东南沿海一带.随着对沿海地区开发的深入,这类记载逐渐增多,受灾程度加大.另外分析了在社会历史变迁中,国家对海洋的开发政策、沿海开发下城市近海地理位置、沿海港口及海洋贸易的规模与地震海浪受灾程度之间的关系.     

DZ-1型地质灾害土层含水量监测仪系统的研究与应用

高强度降雨和岩土层含水量过高是山体滑坡等地质灾害的主要诱因，为了更好地对这类地质灾害进行有效预测预报，研制了DZ-1型地质灾害土层含水量监测仪，介绍了该监测仪的工作原理、主要构成、技术性能、监测工艺技术及实际应用效果。     

The tectono‐metamorphic evolution of the very low‐grade hangingwall constrains two‐stage gneiss dome formation in the Montagne Noire (Southern France)

The Montagne Noire in the southernmost French Massif Central is made of an ENE‐elongated gneiss dome flanked by Palaeozoic sedimentary rocks. The tectonic evolution of the gneiss dome has generated controversy for more than half a century. As a result, a multitude of models have been proposed that invoke various tectonic regimes and exhumation mechanisms. Most of these models are based on data from the gneiss dome itself. Here, new constraints on the dome evolution are provided based on a combination of very low‐grade petrology, K–Ar geochronology, field mapping and structural analysis of the Palaeozoic western Mont Peyroux and Faugères units, which constitute part of the southern hangingwall of the dome. It is shown that southward‐directed Variscan nappe‐thrusting (D₁) and a related medium‐P metamorphism (M₁) are only preserved in the area furthest away from the gneiss dome. The regionally dominant pervasive tectono‐metamorphic event D₂/M₂ largely transposes D₁ structures, comprises a higher metamorphic thermal gradient than M₁ (transition low‐P and medium‐P metamorphic facies series) and affected the rocks between c. 309 and 300 Ma, post‐dating D₁/M₁ by more than 20 Ma. D₂‐related fabrics are refolded by D₃, which in its turn, is followed by dextral‐normal shearing along the basal shear zone of both units at c. 297 Ma. In the western Mont Peyroux and Faugères units, D₂/M₂ is largely synchronous with shearing along the southern dome margin between c. 311 and 303 Ma, facilitating the emplacement of the gneiss dome into the upper crust. D₂/M₂ also overlaps in time with granitic magmatism and migmatization in the Zone Axiale between c. 314 and 306 Ma, and a related low‐P/high‐T metamorphism at c. 308 Ma. The shearing that accompanied the exhumation of the dome therefore was synchronous with a peak in temperature expressed by migmatization and intrusion of melts within the dome, and also with the peak of metamorphism in the hangingwall. Both, the intensity of D₂ fabrics and the M₂ metamorphic grade within the hangingwall, decrease away from the gneiss dome, with grades ranging from the anchizone–epizone boundary to the diagenetic zone. The related zonation of the pre‐D₃ metamorphic field gradients paralleled the dome. These observations indicate that D₂/M₂ is controlled by the exhumation of the Zone Axiale, and suggest a coherent kinematic between the different crustal levels at some time during D₂/M₂. Based on integration of these findings with regional geological constraints, a two‐stage exhumation of the gneiss dome is proposed: during a first stage between c. 316 and 300 Ma dome emplacement into the upper crust was controlled by dextral shear zones arranged in a pull‐apart‐like geometry. The second stage from 300 Ma onwards was characterized by northeast to northward extension, with exhumation accommodated by north‐dipping detachments and hangingwall basin formation along the northeastern dome margin.     

Temporal stability of soil moisture in an oasis of northwestern China

Temporal stability of soil moisture has been widely used in hydrological monitoring since it emerged. However, the spatial analysis of temporal stability at the landscape scale is often limited because of insufficient sampling numbers. This work made an effort to investigate the spatial variations of temporal stability of soil moisture in an oasis landscape. The specific objectives of the study were to explore the spatial patterns of temporal stability and to determine the controlling factors of temporal stability in the desert oasis. A time series of soil moisture measurements were gathered on 23 occasions at 118 locations over 3 years in a rectangular transect of approximately 100 km². The nonparametric Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, standard deviation of relative difference (SDRD), and mean absolute bias error (MABE) were used to quantify the temporal stability of soil moisture. Results showed that the temporal stability of soil moisture was depth dependent and season dependent. The spatial pattern of soil moisture in a deep soil layer and between two same seasons generally had a high temporal stability. SDRD and MABE were spatially autocorrelated and exhibited strong spatial structures in the geographic space. The concept of temporal stability can be extended to describe the time‐stable areas of soil moisture with geostatistics. There were great differences between SDRD and MABE in describing the temporal stability of soil moisture and in identifying the controlling factors of temporal stability. In this case, MABE was a better alternative to estimate the areal mean soil moisture using representative locations than SDRD. Land use type, soil moisture condition, and soil particle composition were the dominant controls of temporal stability in the oasis. These insights could help to better understand the essence of temporal stability of soil moisture in arid regions.     

迁移学习支持下的高分影像山地滑坡灾害解译模型

无人机低空遥感是近年来新兴的一种快速获取灾情信息的手段,如何利用无人机高分影像构建滑坡灾害解译模型是实现快速自动解译滑坡的关键。针对该问题,对比了多种影像特征提取方法,将迁移学习(TL)特征和支持向量机(SVM)引入到构建滑坡灾害自动解译模型中,提出了一种TL支持下的高分影像滑坡灾害解译模型。选取5·12汶川地震及4·20芦山地震系列无人机影像构建了滑坡灾害样本库并进行了实验,TL特征方法整体分类准确度ACC为95%,ROC达到0.98,识别准确率达到97%。结果表明,所提方法可用于高分影像滑坡自动解译,同时可用于大面积高分影像中快速山地滑坡灾害定位及检测。     

一种简化的暴雨灾害风险及影响评估方法和应用研究 ——以京津冀“7·21”暴雨事件为例

文章综合考虑中国区域范围内降雨时空分布特征以及地理地貌等特征,将全国降雨区划分为4大类,在此基础上,得出不同降雨类区暴雨致灾因子的强度等级评定方法;同时,研究确定了与暴雨灾害密切相关的地形高程、高程标准差、河网密度、土壤类型等环境脆弱性影响要素,并对各类要素分别进行了分级评定;将各类环境脆弱性影响要素结合暴雨致灾因子要素,运用加权求和方法建立了暴雨灾害综合风险评估模型;并结合GIS技术,将城市、农村人口分布情况、用地等数据叠加到风险分布格局中,最终分析得出不同风险等级下影响的城市和农村人口数量、土地面积等内容。该评估模型相较于以往其他暴雨风险评估模型,其适用范围更广,可以适用于全国范围内的任意区域暴雨灾害风险评估;实时评估业务能力更强,将该模型结合降雨实况资料或预报资料可以对全国任意区域降雨灾害综合风险进行事后、跟踪评估或预评估;评估对象更有针对性,结合GIS技术,可以针对得出的风险分布结果分别给出不同风险等级范围内的承灾体受影响的定量评估结果。     

湖北省旱涝灾害致灾规律的初步研究

利用1960—2005年湖北省76个地区气象灾害的灾情普查数据和逐日降水量观测资料,对湖北省旱涝灾害的时空分布特征及其致灾规律进行分析。结果表明:干旱灾害的频发区呈东西走向的带状分布,而洪涝灾害的发生频次和频发区面积均明显少于干旱;干旱和洪涝灾害年平均发生站次在1996年以后出现相反的变化趋势,干旱发生站次增加,而洪涝发生站次减少,且两种灾害均主要集中发生在夏季;1996—2001年湖北省部分地区连续出现严重干旱灾害,干旱的累积增强效应导致农业经济损失出现跳跃性增长并在2001年达到最大值;洪涝的致灾强度呈准周期的起伏振荡,农作物受洪涝影响面积最大、损失最多的年份集中在20世纪90年代,农作物受害面积与农业经济损失的决定系数为0.8;受害人口与直接经济损失具有较好的相关特征,且直接经济损失随受害人口增多而增加的速度加快,但近年来人口对洪涝灾害的抵御能力也显著提高;急转干旱和急转洪涝主要发生在鄂西北和鄂东南的夏季,农作物的脆弱度增加,农业经济损失随受害面积增大而增加的速度加快,但所造成的农业经济损失远小于仅发生干旱和洪涝时的数值。     

四川烤烟主产区冰雹灾害风险评估

以四川烤烟主产区冰雹灾害为研究对象,将烤烟气候适应性特征和自然灾害系统论相结合,利用冰雹频率、DEM高程数据、下垫面类型以及农业经济数据等资料,构建冰雹灾害风险评估指标体系,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和抗灾能力4个方面进行分析,最终建立四川烤烟主产区冰雹灾害精细化风险评估模型并计算风险分布指数,借此将攀西烟区划分为由高至低的5个风险区域和1个不适宜种植区。结果表明,安宁河源头河谷地区、雅砻江下游流域以及攀西地区南部的河谷低山区和丘陵区冰雹灾害风险处于较高水平。评估结果为区域烤烟种植结构调整及冰雹灾害防御工作提供了科学指导。