应用系统分析与事故树模型的设备雷电灾害风险评估

分析目前国内雷电灾害风险评估发展现状,针对精细化雷击风险评估需求,以某大桥塔体电梯雷电灾害风险评估为例,在对雷击损坏途径进行系统分析的基础上,引入事故树(FTA)分析方法对电梯雷击损坏事件的致因关系进行了建模、分析与评价,得出电梯雷击损坏事件发生的年预计概率、导致雷击电梯损坏事件发生的关键以及最佳控制雷击电梯损坏事件发生的最有效因素。     

架子台沟低品位铅锌矿原生晕地球化学特征及深部矿产预测

对架子台沟一带1:50 000化探异常检查中,地表发现有铅锌矿化显示,经对激电测深异常深部钻探验证发现有低品位锌矿(化)体。通过系统采集0号勘探线上的2个钻孔中岩石、矿石样品,进行原生晕特征研究分析表明:矿体近矿元素为Ag、Pb、Zn、Cd,尾矿元素为W、Sn、Bi;轴向分带序列由上至下为:Pb-Au-Ag-Mo-Bi-Sn-Cu-Cd-W-Zn。对成矿元素与相关金属元素进行聚类分析、因子分析,并结合激电测深结果,认为在矿体的侧部、深部仍可能有盲矿体。     

北京飞云瀑景点崩塌地质灾害分析及防治方法研究

近15年来,北京飞云瀑景点附近发生过2次大规模崩塌,崩塌堆积岩块体积累计达450 m3,崩塌岩块已滚落覆盖至景区小路。经勘查,确定了1处危岩体及1处危岩带,该危岩体及危岩带对本景点的正常观赏及过往游人构成极大威胁。本文对该景点的崩塌地质灾害地质特征进行了简要介绍;对地质灾害成因、自然发展趋势等进行了初步探讨;对危岩体(带)的稳定性进行了计算、分析及评价;对可能采用的治理方法进行了比选分析。为了最大程度地保护景观资源,最终选择了以避让为主的治理措施,并对选定的治理方案及计算进行了阐述。     

Hispanic Immigrants' Vulnerabilities to Flood and Hurricane Hazards in Two United States Metropolitan Areas

Research reveals that disasters are disproportionately debilitating for marginalized social groups. Numerous studies have examined racial/ethnic dimensions of disaster vulnerability, but few have focused on Hispanic immigrants. More research on Hispanic immigrants is needed, since they constitute a major component of the Hispanic population—the largest and fastest‐growing minority group in the U.S.—and because they experience distinctive cultural and immigration status disadvantages. We examine the flood/hurricane vulnerabilities of Hispanic immigrants in comparison to U.S.–born Hispanics and non‐Hispanic whites. Using mixed methods to analyze data from 429 surveys and 31 interviews with residents living in flood zones, we examine differences in self‐protective action, risk perception, and hazard knowledge between the three groups in Houston and Miami. Hispanic immigrants exhibited lower levels of self‐protection and hazard knowledge, and higher perceptions of risk, which reflects their heightened vulnerability. Risk‐reduction programs should target the particular vulnerabilities of Hispanic immigrants, and future studies should examine their vulnerabilities in other contexts.     

聚龙小镇DZK1地热勘查孔钻探施工技术

地热勘查孔（探采结合孔）是在矿山钻探施工工艺的基础上进行的探索性施工。着重介绍了福建省泉州市聚龙小镇DZK1地热勘查孔在钻探施工过程中遇到的施工难题以及新技术、新工艺的应用。如大口径单管取心、空压机洗井和活塞洗井相结合的洗井方法、套管的隔级使用、深孔测试钻杆密闭性、深孔磨钻头、在涌水量大的地层钻进等。     

序贯高斯模拟在矿石品位估计中的应用研究

随机模拟是地质统计方法的重要内容。在矿石品位估计方法中克里格方法作为一种无偏估计方法,常被用于矿石品位的估计。但克里格法估值存在平滑效应。作者在分析序贯高斯模拟和普通克里格法基本原理的基础上,运用序贯高斯模拟方法和普通克里格方法对某铁矿体内全铁(TFe)品位进行估计,给出了品位估计结果模型。研究从勘探线方向、垂直勘探线方向和竖直方向分别计算变差函数,对球状模型、指数模型、高斯模型的变差函数拟合效果进行了优选,结果表明球型模型拟合效果最好。针对序贯模拟和克里格品位估值效果进行了分析,结果显示:序贯高斯模拟结果在品位分布形态上更接近样品品位分布形态,其平滑效应更小;克里格方法估计与序贯高斯模拟方法相比仅在品位均值方面更接近样本品位均值。因此,认为序贯高斯模拟方法可以更好地刻画矿体内品位分布状态。     

Progress and Prospect of Statistics and Assessment of Large-scale Natural Disaster Damage and Losses

In June 2014, the "Statistics System for the Damage and Loss of Large-scale Natural Disasters" (SSDLLND) was issued by the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Office of National Disaster Reduction Committee, which marked that the statistics and assessment of China's catastrophic natural disaster damage and losses formally entered a new stage of institutionalization. On the basis of analyzing the five major international disaster damage and loss assessment systems, including HAZUS-MH, ECLAC, DaLA, EMA-DLA and PDNA, the differences between the “SSDLLND” of China and five major international systems were compared from the statistics and assessment contents and indicators. Combined with the statistics and assessment practices of China’s large-scale disaster damage and losses and the characteristics of international systems in recent years, the future development of the SSDLLND were proposed in three aspects: Enriching and improving the framework of damage and loss statistics content, stepwise improvement of disaster impact assessment methods (such as the ecological capital loss assessment, tourism industry loss assessment due to the disasters, etc.), and improving indicators and parameters of loss statistics. The study has an important practical significance for improving the statistics and assessment system of the damage and loss of major natural disasters and better serving the post-disaster recovery and reconstruction decision-making.     

A novel approach to leveraging social media for rapid flood mapping: a case study of the 2015 South Carolina floods

Rapid flood mapping is critical for local authorities and emergency responders to identify areas in need of immediate attention. However, traditional data collection practices such as remote sensing and field surveying often fail to offer timely information during or right after a flooding event. Social media such as Twitter have emerged as a new data source for disaster management and flood mapping. Using the 2015 South Carolina floods as the study case, this paper introduces a novel approach to mapping the flood in near real time by leveraging Twitter data in geospatial processes. Specifically, in this study, we first analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of flood-related tweets using quantitative methods to better understand how Twitter activity is related to flood phenomena. Then, a kernel-based flood mapping model was developed to map the flooding possibility for the study area based on the water height points derived from tweets and stream gauges. The identified patterns of Twitter activity were used to assign the weights of flood model parameters. The feasibility and accuracy of the model was evaluated by comparing the model output with official inundation maps. Results show that the proposed approach could provide a consistent and comparable estimation of the flood situation in near real time, which is essential for improving the situational awareness during a flooding event to support decision-making.     

甘肃地质灾害风险管理思考

本文从5个方面分析了甘肃省地质灾害风险管控面临的形势,在此基础上提出了重构包括生命至上、天人合一、主动而为、依法防灾等地质灾害风险管理科学理念,提出了地质灾害风险管理应遵循资源整合与系统设计、预防优先与抗救结合、分级防治与风险共担、工程治理与避险并重、政府主导与社会参与、应急处置与长效防范6项原则,提出了今后甘肃地质灾害风险管控应从发挥制度在地质灾害风险管控引领作用、打造积极的防灾减灾文化、推进地质灾害防治全民能力提高、强化地质灾害风险管控科技支撑、构建地质灾害隐患动态风险评估体系、加强空天地一体化专群结合监测预警网络建设、加大地质灾害综合治理力度、扩大避险搬迁覆盖面和实施力度、地质灾害防治纳入国土风险管控体系等8个方面的着力点。