全球大陆弧玄武岩（CAB）的特征——与岛弧玄武岩（IAB）和弧后玄武岩（BAB）的对比

活动陆缘玄武岩（CAB）主要出现在安第斯,早先大多认为CAB 大体相当于IAB,在许多判别图中, CAB 基本上与IAB 在一起, 只是LILE 富集和HFSE 亏损的程度略有差别而已。本文的研究表明,尽管CAB 富集LILE,但是,Nb-Ta 亏损不是非常明显。在最新的采用大数据方法厘定的判别图中,CAB 不同于IAB,不是落在IAB 区,而是位于IAB 与OIB 的过渡区域。CAB 中保留了很多OIB 的印记,说明板块俯冲时伴随有来自地幔深部的岩浆的加入,故CAB 中保留了OIB 的印记。我们的研究还发现, 在安第斯弧后盆地玄武岩具有OIB 的印记,而非MORB 的特征。本文按照大数据的思路,讨论了CAB 的特征,并与IAB、BAB 进行了初步的对比。研究表明,CAB 明显不同于IAB,CAB 兼具IAB 和OIB 的特征,但对其深度的认识还有待于今后进一步的研究。     

The Wheeler diagram,flattening theory,and time

Wheeler diagrams are excellent tools to represent time stratigraphy. These diagrams are produced by considering interpreted surfaces as snapshots of geologic times linked with transit cycles of the base level. The base level, defined in the nineteenth century, can be regarded as an ultimate ‘time’ reference for stratigraphic units. The application of the base level concept to deep marine settings is a more recent development, even though the same definition applies to all depositional environments. Flat timelines are also known as flattening theories can produce similar looking diagrams and have an edge that they operate in 3D. However, flattening of a dataset can be achieved with various techniques, which are reviewed and the optimum algorithm, which has a future application for hydrocarbon and research communities, is improved to honor geological constraints such as faults and horizons. A secondary aspect of the Wheeler diagrams is the dual nature of geological timelines. The diagrams are originally plotted on a relative geological time scale and no formal technique has yet been recommended for time calibration. In this paper, a nomogram approach is proposed to calibrate the timelines. The representation of unconformities that are parallel to bedding planes is another important idea presented in this paper.     

Real time earthquake forecasting in Italy

We have applied an earthquake clustering epidemic model to real time data at the Italian Earthquake Data Center operated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) for short-term forecasting of moderate and large earthquakes in Italy. In this epidemic-type model every earthquake is regarded, at the same time, as being triggered by previous events and triggering following earthquakes. The model uses earthquake data only, with no explicit use of tectonic, geologic, or geodetic information. The forecasts are displayed as time-dependent maps showing both the expected rate density of M_l ≥ 4.0 earthquakes and the probability of ground shaking exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity VI (PGA ≥ 0.01 g) in an area of 100 × 100 km² around the zone of maximum expected rate density in the following 24 h. For testing purposes, the overall probability of occurrence of an M_l ≥ 4.5 earthquake in the same area of 100 × 100 km² is also estimated. The whole procedure is tested in real time, for internal use only, at the INGV Earthquake Data Center.Forecast verification procedures have been carried out in forward-retrospective way on the 2006–2007 INGV data set, making use of statistical tools as the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) diagrams. These procedures show that the clustering epidemic model performs up to several hundred times better than a simple random forecasting hypothesis. The seismic hazard modeling approach so developed, after a suitable period of testing and refinement, is expected to provide a useful contribution to real time earthquake hazard assessment, even with a possible practical application for decision making and public information.     

地震三角形分类图解法与华北地区地震成因分析

选取华北地区的近期震源机制参数资料,改进地震分类的三角形图解法,提出了地震的二级分类法和依据,详细划分了带正断裂型、逆断裂型、走滑型分量的混合型二级类型等多种断层机制,并讨论了华北地区地震成因．结果表明：一级地震类型以走滑机制为主,其次为正、逆断层机制和过渡型,而二级地震类型多为带其它分量的混合型机制、正、逆断层机制和过渡型,走滑型机制的地震数量不到一半．说明华北地区现今地壳脆性变形虽然以走滑机制为主。但是大多数地震属带其它分量．在NEE—SWW向的水平主压应力作用下,形成了NWW向的张家口一蓬莱地震密集带和与此相共扼的一系列NE向或NEE向具有强震机制的构造,以走滑动机制或带其它分量的走滑动机制为主,并在一系列的第三纪、第四纪断陷盆地边缘或平原中发生带有走滑分量的正断裂或带正断层分量的走滑型机制的地震,表明断裂上盘在侧向运动的同时,也存在着一定量的向下运动,继续进行着盆地、平原的“生长”;而在太行山及晋北山区,也同样存在着慢速隆起．这是现代华北地区山区、盆地差异运动的一种形式,反映出华北地区地壳变形是在复杂力学环境背景下发生的和具有复杂的发生、发展和变化过程．     

Fabric-diagram contour precision and size of counting element related to sample size by approximation theory methods

Density estimation on the unit sphere by kernel methods may be conceived as a process of approximation by singular integrals. This concept aids in the solution of the main problems concerning the contouring of fabric diagrams. The optimal size of the counting element in Schmidt's method with respect to the mean integrated square error (MISE)of the density estimation is given. It proved that the optimal size is not only a function of the sample size but seriously depends on the smoothness of the density of directions on the sphere. In the light of approximation theory the Schmidt method of contouring is qualified as a moving average process; an example of a more refined density estimator is given.     

Thermodynamic structure of the marine atmosphere over the region 80–87°E along 13°N during August (phase II) BOBMEX-99

Thermodynamic structure of the marine atmosphere in the region between 80 and 87‡E along 13‡N over the Bay of Bengal was studied using 13 high resolution radiosonde profiles from surface-400 hPa collected onboard ORV Sagar Kanya during the period 27th–30th August, during BOBMEX-99. Saturation point concept, mixing line analysis and conserved variable diagrams have been used to identify boundary layer characteristics such as air mass movement and stability of the atmosphere. The results showed relatively dry air near the ocean surface between 1000 and 950 hPa. This feature is confirmed by the conserved teta_v structure in this layer. Further, teta_v seldom showed any inversions in this region. The teta_e and teta_es profiles showed persistent low cloud layers between 900 and 700 hPa. The conserved variable diagrams (teta_e-q) showed the existence of double mixing line structures approximately at 950 and 700 hPa levels.     

注采试井双对数理论图版

注采试井分析以多井渗流力学理论为基础，求解注采井地下渗流的精确解，研究注水井与生产井之间的关系，用注采比、注采井距、注采污染系数比、注采窜流系数比等参数刻画注、采井间关系。在理论上进一步完善地下渗流力学理论，从单井的参数分析发展到井问关系分析，因此也从研究内容上补充了现代试井分析。在建立无穷大地层油水两相双重介质续流污染的注采无量纲模型基础上，对注采无量纲模型求精确解，将其数值反演求实空间解，制作出注采试井双对数理论图版。     

New Perspectives on Water Chemistry and Compositional Data Analysis

Water chemistry is commonly investigated to determine the suitability of water for various uses. With increased knowledge of aqueous chemistry, it has become possible to interpret the evolutionary processes that determine water composition and quality. This paper presents procedures for exploring and modeling the environment using compositional data from water analysis, utilizing statistical tools in an appropriate sample space. Our procedures build on a methodology based on log-ratios initiated by John Aitchison in the early 1980's. They are not only useful for interpreting the structure of the data, but also for characterizing and modeling the influence of geochemical processes acting on the environment. The geochemistry of water samples collected from wells on Vulcano Island (one of the Aeolian Islands of the Italian province of Sicily) will be used to illustrate the techniques, although an exhaustive overview would require many different examples. Vulcano island is a quiescent volcanic area where mobilization of chemical species by weathering of volcanic rocks and input of gaseous components from fumarolic activity has produced environmental changes expressed in the composition of phreatic waters at the surface and in the shallow subsurface. Changes in the chemical composition of waters in unconfined aquifers of the northwestern part of the island around the active crater appear to be useful in understanding the natural processes at work.