A web-based system for public–private sector collaborative ecosystem management

 To preserve biodiversity over centuries, ecosystem management will need to be accepted and practiced by individuals from a broad spectrum of society's strata. Also, management decisions will need to be based on reliable judgments of the cause and effect relationships that govern an ecosystem's dynamics. This article describes an extant, web-based ecosystem management system (EMS) that allows (a) wide participation in ecosystem assessment and policy impact predictions, (b) convenient construction of probabilistic models of ecosystem processes through an influence diagram, and (c) automatic creation of ecosystem assessment reports. For illustration, the system is used to first model the cheetah population in Kenya, and then to assess the impact on this population of different management options. The influence diagram used herein extends standard influence diagram theory to allow representation of variables governed by stochastic differential equations, birth–death processes, and other nongaussian, continuous probability distributions. For many ecosystems, data sets on ecosystem health indicators can be incomplete, small, and contain unknown measurement errors. Some amount of knowledge of an ecosystem's dynamics however, may exist in the form of expert opinion derived from ecological theory. The proposed EMS uses a nonbayesian parameter estimation method, called consistency analysis that finds parameter estimates such that the fitted ecosystem model is as faithful as possible to both the available data and the collected body of expert opinion. For illustration, consistency analysis is used to estimate the cheetah viability influence diagram using all known cheetah surveys in the country of Kenya plus current understanding of factors such as habitat and prey availability that affect cheetah population dynamics.     

基于Voronoi图的空间方向关系形式化描述研究(二)

详细阐述了基于 Voronoi图的空间方向关系形式化描述模型的建立 ,给出了模型的逻辑结构和空间方向的计算过程。为了应证模型的正确性 ,文章给出了应用该模型计算空间方向的几个例子 ,并在最后总结了模型的优缺点     

Li,K/Cl,SO_4-H_2O体系相平衡的热力学

介绍了根据自己研究测定的Ｌｉ，Ｋ／Ｃｌ，ＳＯ４－Ｈ２Ｏ体系２５℃的渗透系数等热力学性质获得的Ｐｉｔｚｅｒ混合参数，并用自由能最小化方法计算了２５℃ Ｌｉ，Ｋ／Ｃｌ．ＳＯ４－Ｈ２Ｏ体系的相图。结合测定得到的该体系５０℃、７５℃的相图和复盐ＬｉＫＳＯ４转变温度的研究，整个体系相平衡和热力学的研究结果可用于盐湖卤水中锂盐的分离提取。     

Diagrammatic solutions for hydraulic head moments in 1-D and 2-D bounded domains

We present a diagrammatic method for solving stochastic 1-D and 2-D steady-state flow equations in bounded domains. The diagrammatic method results in explicit solutions for the moments of the hydraulic head. This avoids certain numerical constraints encountered in realization-based methods. The diagrammatic technique also allows for the consideration of finite domains or large fluctuations, and is not restricted by distributional assumptions. The results of the method for 1-D and 2-D finite domains are compared with those obtained through a realization-based approach. Mean and variance of head are well reproduced for all log-conductivity variances inputted, including those larger than one. The diagrammatic results also compare favorably to hydraulic head moments derived by standard analytic methods requiring a linearized form of the flow equation.     

Voronoi Diagrams and Spatial Analysis of Crime

A range of spatial analyses are used in the field of crime mapping, such as kernel density estimation, Ripley's K-function, and spatial autocorrelation, but there is limited use of Voronoi diagrams (VDs). The goal of this article is to contribute to the spatial analysis of crime through the use of VDs. We use four years of commercial robbery data from Campinas, Brazil, and employ several VD techniques: (1) We analyze crime concentrations through the properties of VDs—area and number of vertices—and coverage curve; (2) we introduce a new crime geovisualization with VD in three dimensions; and (3) we apply a network VD technique to crime analysis. The results demonstrate associations between these VD techniques and the ability of the researcher to recognize crime patterns associated with crime concentration, crime along pathways, and the highly regularized distribution of crime in limited areas spatially.     

A parametric sensitivity study on LNG tank sloshing loads by numerical simulations

A series of parametric sensitivity studies on unmatched dimensionless scale parameters is carried out on the liquified natural gas (LNG) tank sloshing loads by using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) program. First, a brief dimensional analysis is conducted to identify the governing and non-matched non-dimensional parameters, assuming that Froude scaling law is adopted. Then the sensitivity of impact pressure is checked through numerical simulations against non-matched parameters, such as fluid viscosity, liquid-gas density ratio, and ullage pressure and compressibility. The CFD simulations are also verified against experimental results. It is concluded that the effects of viscosity and density ratio are insignificant, while the compressibility of ullage space plays an appreciable role, as was pointed out by Bass et al. [Bass, R.L., Bowles, E.B., Trudell, R.W., Navickas, J., Peck, J.C., Yoshimura, N., Endo, S., Pots, B.F.M., 1985. Modeling criteria for scaled LNG sloshing experiments. Transactions of the ASME 107, 272-280].     

Optical and infrared photometry of new very low‐mass stars and brown dwarfs in the σ Orionis cluster

We present an RI photometric survey covering an area of 430 arcmin² around the multiple star σ Orionis. The observations were conducted with the 0.8 m IAC‐80 Telescope at the Teide Observatory. The survey limiting R and I magnitudes are 22.5 and 21, and completeness magnitudes 21 and 20, respectively. We have selected 53 candidates from the I vs. R–I colour‐magnitude diagram (I = 14–20) that follow the previously known photometric sequence of the cluster. Adopting an age of 2–4 Myr for the cluster, we find that these objects span a mass range from 0.35 M_⊙ to 0.015 M_⊙. We have performed J‐band photometry of 52 candidates and K_s photometry for 12 of them, with the result that 50 follow the expected infrared sequence for the cluster, thus confirming with great confidence that the majority of the candidates are bona fide members. JHK_s photometry from the Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS) is available for 50 of the candidates and are in good agreement with our data. Out of 48 candidates, which have photometric accuracies better than 0.1 mag in all bands, only three appear to show near‐infrared excesses. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

基于RANS方程的桩式U-OWC装置波浪荷载分析

使用OpenFOAM建立基于雷诺时均N-S方程和SST k-ω湍流模型的三维数值水槽,对桩式U-OWC装置在不同周期和波高的正向入射规则波作用下的受力情况进行分析。首先将数模结果与物理试验结果进行对比验证校核,然后通过数值模拟对装置的受力情况进行了分析,分别研究了作用在装置上作用力和倾覆力矩特点,装置上作用力和倾覆力矩随周期和波高的变化情况,以及装置稳定性极小状态。研究表明,装置所受到波向力、垂向力相比侧向力数值较大,对倾覆力矩起决定性作用。对装置上作用力和倾覆力矩进行无量纲分析,进一步发现在测试工况范围内,装置所受到的3个方向作用力中侧向力随周期变化不明显,明确了装置前的波浪爬高对装置波浪荷载和力矩的影响,并针对U-OWC模型特点和具体工况应用一个波浪爬高经验公式,获得了较好效果。     

武汉都市圈经济联系的空间结构

都市圈空间结构是城市体系中最综合、最富于变化的热点部分。基于武汉都市圈近年来的统计资料,构建经济联系强度模型,定量分析武汉都市圈空间竞争与范围的动态性特征:中心城市对外经济联系存在主要方向,具有时间惯性,空间极化明显;地域空间上经济联系作用强度距离衰减,形成圈层结构分异。从点、线、面组合关系角度,构建节点中心性、通道网络性、范围系统性指标,定量揭示出武汉都市圈经济联系的空间结构等级层次性特征:中心城市中心性等级差异明显,空间分布不均,与交通地理区位紧密相关;主要通道与侍服能力也存在等级层次性,明显形成两城际交通走廊;中心城市腹地范围与自身外向经济联系强度密切相关,受自然地理、行政区划影响明显。     

A view on capsizing under direct and parametric wave excitation

The behavior of a ship that is simultaneously heaving, swaying and rolling in waves is examined by using an early developed model by Thompson et al. [Thompson, J. M. T., Rainey, R. C. T. and Soliman, M. S. (1992) Mechanics of ship capsize under direct and parametric wave excitation. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society London A 338, 471-490]. A second-order nonlinear differential equation has been used as a mathematical model which is analyzed by using numerical methods to obtain geometrical phase space techniques of nonlinear dynamics. Bifurcation diagrams and Poincaré maps are two of the geometrical techniques used in this study. The result of the calculation is given to allow the naval architect to make a self comparison.