基于SINMAP模型的区域滑坡危险性定量评估及模型验证

利用稳定态水文学理论与无限斜坡稳定性模型,构建分布式斜坡稳定性定量评估模型SINMAP,以坡体滑塌十分发育的陕西省略阳县为试验区,利用Grid DEM提取坡度、流向、地形湿度指数和有效汇水面积等流域地形水文数据,将GIS专题图、遥感数据等作为模型输入数据,获得地表斜坡稳定性分级专题图,实现滑坡危险性定量评估;将模型模拟结果与目前国内最具有权威性的中国县(市)地质灾害调查结果进行对比分析,发现两者在稳定性分级标准划分、滑坡点定性评价、滑坡危险性分区等方面都具有很好的相似性和可比性,说明模型的模拟结果能够客观反映研究区地表滑坡危险性,对可能出现的滑坡具有一定的预测精度。因此,该模型的研究有望为定量分析区域滑坡与环境因子的关系、区域滑坡预测等工作奠定基础。     

基于不同DEM数据源的数字河网提取对比分析——以韩江流域为例

基于HYDRO1K、SRTM3和ASTER GDEM三种DEM数据,利用BTOPMC地形子模型提取韩江流域河网,并作对比分析。结果表明:①SRTM3提取的河网精度最高,HYDRO1K相对最低。②DEM的垂直精度对提取的河网精度起控制作用。ASTER GDEM的水平分辨率较高,但垂直精度不如SRTM3,因而提取的河网精度不如SRTM3。③HYDRO1K提取大尺度流域河网具有一定的精度,但在地势平坦区域的效果较差,HY-DRO1K不宜用来提取小尺度流域河网。④由DEM提取的数字河网精度与当地的地面坡度以及处理DEM的填洼算法有关。     

A case study of coping strategies and landslides in two villages of Central-Eastern Nepal

Landslides are an increasing problem in Nepal’s Middle Hills due to both natural and human phenomena: mainly increasingly intense monsoon rains and a boom in rural road construction. This problem has largely been neglected due to underreporting of losses and the dispersed nature of landslides. Understanding how populations cope with landslides is a first step toward developing more effective landslide risk management programs. The present research focuses on two villages in Central-Eastern Nepal, both affected by active landslides but with different coping strategies. Research methods are interdisciplinary, based on a geological assessment of landslide risk and a socio-economic study of the villages using household questionnaires, focus group discussions and transect walks. Community risk maps are compared with geological landslide risk maps to better understand and communicate community risk perceptions, priorities and coping strategies. A modified typology of coping strategies is presented, based on previous work by Burton, Kates, and White (1993) that is useful for decision-makers for designing more effective programs for landslide mitigation. Main findings underscore that coping strategies, mainly seeking external assistance and outmigration, are closely linked to access to resources, ethnicity/social status and levels of community organization. Conclusions include the importance of investing in organizational skills, while building on local knowledge about landslide mitigation for reducing landslide risk. There is great potential to increase coping strategies by incorporating skills training on landslide mitigation in existing agricultural outreach and community forest user group training.     

Demographic Transition: Threat to Developing Nations

Abstract

As computers become commonplace in the nation's schools, interactive maps are finding their way into the geography classroom. Students can use electronic atlases to access information as well as use authoring software to produce their own interactive maps. Does this change in media correspond to better geography education for our children? This article addresses whether using interactive maps for gathering and presenting information can have a positive influence on learning geography content. A two-week experiment was conducted in five 7th grade classrooms. Students in four of the classes researched and produced map products using both traditional and computer-assisted techniques. The fifth class was a control group. A pretest and two post-tests were given to quantitatively assess student learning after each project. Also, students were given a qualitative questionnaire to determine their attitude towards the different techniques. Quantitative results of the study indicate that there was no significant difference in student post-test performance after using each of the techniques, but qualitative results suggest that students prefer using the computer techniques over the traditional methods for gathering and presenting information.     

Stepped palaeosurfaces in southern Norway - interpretation of DEM -derived topographic profiles

Bibliografien er selektiv, den søker å dekke arbeider av norske geografer og andre publikasjoner av spesiell geografisk interesse. Den omfatter en del utrykte arbeider som finnes i biblioteket ved Geografisk institutt ved Universitet i Oslo.     

精细化监测资料在山西暴雨预报模型改进中的应用

利用近3年5—9月山西63个GPS/MET临测站反演的逐时气柱水汽总量空间分布图与对应的459天气象观测资料、12个暴雨日的暴雨落区以及对应的流型配置图,对比分析发现:(1)当气柱水汽总量空间分布的水平梯度在25～40 mm/l经(纬)度时,未来12～36小时,在水平梯度的大值区及其南北(东西)0.5～1.0个经(纬)度的范围内,暴雨及其以上天气出现的概率达100%,当气柱水汽总量空间分布的水平梯度≥40 mm/l经(纬)度时,在水平梯度的大值区及其南北(东西)0.5个经(纬)度的范围内出现大暴雨的慨率为63.6%;(2)暴雨落区在气柱水汽总量空间分布图中水汽含量水平梯度大值区及其以北(西)还是以南(东)0.5～1.0)个经(纬)度的范围出现,不同的流型配置会出现不同的结果。应用逐时GPS/MET资料和逐时自动气象站极大风速风场资料,依据暴雨出现在气柱水汽总量空间分布图中水汽含量水平梯度大值区的不同位置,建立不同流型配置下的多种暴雨概念模型;采用轮廓识别技术在C/S架构下,对12～36小时暴雨落区预报模型进行改进并实现了自动化运行,2011年进行准业务使用证明效果良好。     

模糊时间序列模型在短期气候预测中的应用

将模糊时间序列模型引入短期气候预报,利用重庆34个地面气象观测站的逐日观测资料(1971—2007年)和重庆市旱涝灾害监测预警决策服务系统计算的干旱指数和洪涝指数等资料,运用模糊时间序列模型分别对2001—2007年重庆市城口县1月降水、1月平均气温的预报结果(年度预测)和重庆市春旱指数的预报结果(年度预测)进行了模糊时间序列分析,预测了2004—2007年的发展趋势,用2004—2007年实测值与预测结果进行了比较,并与加权集成、人工神经网络集成、数据挖掘集成等模型进行了精度比较和分析.结果表明:模糊时间序列模型各项精度评定指标优良,并且计算简单,具有一定的实用价值.     

内蒙古气象服务热线平台的设计与实现

内蒙古气象服务热线平台是基于Windows操作平台开发的一款应用于气象行业的C／S版声询信息管理系统。采用VOIP技术实现全国省（自治区）一级人工气象服务热线平台和中国气象局人工气象服务热线平台之间的联网,实现全国人工服务的联网。为达到中国气象局在全国范围内统一特服号码-4006000121,以省（自治区）为单位建设气象服务热线平台。     

贵港市气象科技服务发展存在的问题与对策

通过对贵港市气象科技服务现状和存在问题的分析总结,提出发展气象科技服务的建议和措施。     

最新中国陆地数字高程基准模型:重力似大地水准面CNGG2011

本文回顾了近20年国内外国家局部大地水准面模型研究的概况和发展背景,采用Stokes-Helmert方法,计算了一个新的2′×2′中国重力和1985国家高程基准似大地水准面数值模型（CNGG2011）,采用了1百万余陆地重力数据和SRTM 7″.5×7″.5地形高数据,以及649个B级GPS水准点数据。CNGG2011平均精度为±0.13m,东部地区±0.07m,西部地区±0.14m。各省区局部似大地水准面平均精度为±0.06m,东部为±0.05m,西部为±0.11m。西藏精度为±0.22m。本文还讨论了重力大地水准面与GPS水准的关系,提出了今后进一步精化我国高程基准大地水准面模型的构想。