A different intensity recording for reducing the uncertainty in its assessment: An application to the completeness analysis of earthquake catalogues

The purpose of this paper is to emphasize the consequences of the ordinal and qualitative nature of seismic intensity regarding its recording. The classical way of recording by an integer value implies that on many occasions it can be difficult to associate only one intensity degree to an event. Therefore, we propose to record the intensity in a new way so that the expert is no longer restricted to indicating only one value, but can express his belief that the considered event belongs to any one of the intensity classes in the scale. Following this approach, as an example, we study the completeness of the Sannio-Matese catalogue and show how the degree of completeness changes according to the degree of uncertainty in intensity assessment.     

Behaviour and dynamics of a hydrothermal plume in Lake Banyoles, Catalonia, NE Spain

A hydrothermal plume forms in Lake Banyoles, NE Spain, as a result of convection above a springwater-fed suspension cloud ponded on the lake floor. The plume propagates upwards reaching a level of neutral buoyancy from where a turbidity current spreads out laterally. Two-dimensional temperature and particle concentration measurements show the fate of the hydrothermal plume and its associated turbidity current and reveal its seasonal development. Silt particles transported by the plume have been used as tracers to determine the maximum and equilibrium heights of the plume. When the lake is stratified, the vertical transport of sediment is confined to the lake hypolimnion, as the thermocline limits the vertical propagation of the plume. In contrast, when the lake water column is mixed, the plume reaches the surface of the lake. The field measurements have been compared with models for thermal convection from finite isolated sources. Measurements of the flow velocity at the source of the hydrothermal plume (i.e. the rim current velocity) indicate that cold hypolimnetic water is entrained by the plume. Sedimentation rates measured from sediment traps at the zone where the turbidity current develops vary between 10 and 25 g m⁻² day⁻¹, and result from continuous silt particle sedimentation from the turbidity current. Sedimentation rates in traps are higher for stations situated close to the source than those further away (<5 g m⁻² day⁻¹). Moreover, the results demonstrate that double diffusive sedimentation from the turbidity current was dominant over grain-by-grain settling, causing a mixed distribution of sediments in the region where the turbidity current spreads. The deposition of silt particles could explain the occurrence of silt layers interbedded with biocalcarenites in the littoral zones of the lake and the stratigraphy identified by seismic profiles and cores taken from the lake floor.     

Can the diffuse double layer theory describe changes in hydraulic conductivity of compacted clays?

Observations related to modifications of the hydraulic conductivity of compacted soils as a consequence of intentional compositional variation of the percolating fluid are often attributed vaguely to calculated changes in double layer thickness. The same calculated decrease or increase in double layer thickness is interpreted differently, depending on which (unconsciously held) boundary conditions authors take into account. The interpretations of different authors seem to be paradoxical only if the boundary conditions have not been mentioned. On the basis of a literature survey and own previously published test results the different boundary conditions have been grouped and divided into classes. With this division the interpretation of changes in double layer thickness will lead to unique interpretations and predictions of changes in hydraulic conductivity.     

Measuring the power spectrum of density fluctuations at intermediate redshift with X-ray background observations

The precision of intensity measurements of the extragalactic X-ray background (XRB) on an angular scale of about a degree is dominated by spatial fluctuations caused by source confusion noise. X-ray source counts at the flux level responsible for these fluctuations, ∼10⁻¹² erg cm⁻² s⁻¹, will soon be accurately measured by new missions, and it will then be possible to detect the weaker fluctuations caused by the clustering of the fainter, more distant sources which produce the bulk of the XRB. We show here that measurements of these excess fluctuations at the level of (Δ I/I )∼2×10⁻³ are within reach, improving by an order of magnitude on present upper limits. Since it is likely that most (if not all) of the XRB will be resolved into sources by AXAF , subsequent optical identification of these sources will reveal the X-ray volume emissivity in the Universe as a function of redshift. With these ingredients, all-sky observations of the XRB can be used to measure the power spectrum (PS) of the density fluctuations in the Universe at comoving wavevectors k _c∼0.01–0.1 Mpc⁻¹ at redshifts where most of the XRB is likely to originate ( z ∼1–2) with a sensitivity similar to, or better than, the predictions from large-scale structure theories. A relatively simple X-ray experiment, carried out by a large-area proportional counter with a 0.5–2 deg² collimated field of view scanning the whole sky a few times, would be able to determine the PS of the density fluctuations near its expected peak in wavevector with an accuracy better than 10 per cent.     

Millimetric properties of IRAS galaxies – III. Luminosity functions, sub-mm counts and contributions to the sky background

We exploit observations at 1.25 mm with the ESO–SEST telescope of a southern galaxy sample, selected from the IRAS PSC and complete to S ₆₀=2 Jy, to derive the FIR and mm luminosity functions and the conditional probability distributions of FIR and mm luminosity of galaxies. The reliability of these estimates is ensured by the good observed correlation of the far-infrared and mm emissions. This detailed knowledge of the millimetric properties of galaxies is used to simulate the extragalactic sub-mm sky (background intensity, small-scale anisotropy signals and discrete source statistics), which is the target of a variety of ground-based and space observatories. We find, in particular, that a recent tentative detection of a sub-mm background would require, if confirmed, strong evolution with cosmic time of the galaxy long-wavelength emissivity. We finally discuss ways to test such evolution with present and forthcoming facilities: while emphasizing the difficulty of achieving this with large mm telescopes on the ground (because of the poor atmospheric conditions of current sub-mm sites), we mention an interesting opportunity with the long-wavelength camera on ISO . Preliminary results of deep surveys, both from space and from the ground, seem indeed to require excess emission in the past by dusty galaxies with respect to no-evolution predictions.     

The contribution to the Galactic diffuse gamma-ray spectrum from unresolved rotation-powered pulsars

We consider the contribution to the Galactic diffuse γ-ray emission from unresolved γ-ray pulsars. Based on the thick outer gap model, Monte Carlo methods are used to simulate the properties (period, distance, magnetic field, etc.) of the Galactic population of rotation-powered pulsars the gamma-ray flux of which is lower than the threshold sensitivity of the EGRET detector on the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory . Furthermore, the contribution to the Galactic diffuse γ-ray spectrum from the unresolved γ-ray pulsars is calculated. Our results indicate that the unresolved γ-ray pulsars contribute ∼5 to ∼10 per cent to the measured Galactic diffuse γ-ray emission if the birth rate of neutron stars in the Galaxy is 1 to 2 per century, and that these pulsars contribute significantly to the observed Galactic diffuse γ-ray emission above 1 GeV. Comparing the model spectrum with the observed spectrum, we show that the unresolved γ-ray pulsars contribute very little to the diffuse emission at lower energies but can account for ∼50 per cent of the observed spectrum above 1 GeV if the product of the birth rate of neutron stars and the γ-ray beaming fraction is about unity. Such a large pulsar contribution can explain the difference (∼60 per cent) between the intensity of the Galactic diffuse emission as measured by EGRET above 1 GeV and model predictions based on cosmic ray–matter interaction only.     

宽带太阳漫射辐射法反演辐射加权平均的气溶胶一次散射反照率研究

引入了一个辐射加权平均的宽带气溶胶一次散射反照率(SSA)的定义,提出了一个从宽带的漫射信息反演该SSA的方法.数值模拟结果表明,在Junge气溶胶谱分布情形下,对气溶胶光学厚度、(A)ngstr(o)m 指数与气溶胶虚部的通常变化范围,应用该SSA所计算的2160组宽带太阳辐射反射率、漫射透过率、总透过率和吸收率的相对标准误差都在1.107%以内; 绝对标准差在0.00287以内.对非Junge的大陆性和都市工业污染气溶胶模式(由水溶性、沙尘和碳粒子组成),在72组反射率、漫射透过率、总透过率和吸收率计算中,相对标准差都在2.047%以内,绝对标准差在0.0075以内.在Junge气溶胶假设下,作者提出了一个综合应用宽带太阳直射和漫射信息同时反演气溶胶光学厚度与辐射加权平均SSA的方法,并通过模拟反演分析了SSA反演的3个主要误差因子.从反演结果可以看出:(1)如果(A)ngstr(o)m指数误差在±0.2以内,对0.55 μm气溶胶光学厚度大于0.312大陆性气溶胶,SSA误差在±0.0418以内;(2)波长无关的宽带地表反照率适用于SSA反演;(3)气溶胶光学厚度越大,辐射资料误差所引起的SSA解误差越小.当辐射误差在±2%以内以及0.55 μm气溶胶光学厚度大于0.312时,SSA解的误差在±0.0149以内; 辐射误差在±4%以内时,SSA解的误差在±0.0317以内.     

海洋激光雷达反演水体光学参数

研制了一套船载海洋激光雷达,用于探测海水光学参数垂直廓线。2017年8月,该系统在黄海海域进行了实验测量。在准单次散射模型中引入原位测量的光学参数,实现了理想激光雷达回波信号的模拟,并将该理想信号与系统响应函数卷积后精确复现了实验的激光雷达信号。采用Fernald后向迭代积分法(简称Fernald法),比较了不同水体悬浮物激光雷达比下反演的激光雷达衰减系数α与原位漫射衰减系数Kd的差别。基于停航时标定的水体悬浮物激光雷达比,采用Fernald法获得了走航时的激光雷达衰减系数。进一步地,提出一种基于米散射激光雷达数据和原位测量的后向散射数据的融合算法,模拟了高光谱分辨率激光雷达(HSRL)反演α的过程,并将其与Fernald法进行了比较。实验结果表明,自研的海洋激光雷达能够有效探测海水光学参数,基于合适的水体悬浮物激光雷达比的Fernald法可以有效应用于米散射激光雷达的反演,未来无需假设的HSRL在海水光学参数探测领域具有更大的优势。     

多云条件有利于亚热带人工针叶林不同季节净生态系统碳吸收（英文）

太阳辐射的动态变化对生态系统固碳有重要影响,而不同天气条件下太阳辐射的改变对森林净生态系统碳交换(NEE)的影响还不明确。本研究利用亚热带人工针叶林生态系统2012年的通量数据和气象数据,分析了晴天、多云、阴天三种天气对NEE的影响。基于一年数据的研究结果表明:在不同季节中,不同天气下光响应曲线的变化没有季节性差异。和晴天条件相比,多云条件下的表观量子效率(?),150和750 W m^–2光强下的潜在光合速率(P₁₅₀和P₇₅₀)分别平均提高了82.3%、217.7%、22.5%;阴天条件下的α和P₁₅₀分别平均提高了118.5%和301%。中等辐射条件有利于NEE达到最大值,但低辐射条件对NEE有抑制作用。在大多数情况下,与晴天相比,多云下NEE的相对改变量(%NEE)为正,但阴天下为负。多云条件下最大%NEE的平均值在春夏秋冬分别为42.4%、34.1%、1.6%、-87.3%。本研究表明多云天气促进亚热带人工针叶林的潜在光合速率和NEE。