武威市初、终霜日气候特征

为了因地制宜,合理调整种植结构和布局,有效利用农业气候资源。利用1961—2014年武威市4个气象站点初、终霜日(最低地温≤0℃)观测资料,采用现代气候诊断分析方法,系统分析了该市年初、终霜日的时空变化特征。结果表明:受海拔高度、地形地势以及植被覆盖情况的影响,在空间分布上,武威市初霜日为山区早于荒漠区早于绿洲平原区,终霜日为山区晚于荒漠区晚于绿洲平原区,各地初、终霜日存在一定的异常性,正常初、终霜日均在60%左右,对农业生产造成危害的偏早和特早初霜日、偏晚和特晚终霜日的概率均在20%左右。在时间变化上,武威市初霜日呈显著推迟趋势,终霜日呈显著提早趋势,霜期呈显著缩短趋势,终霜日提早的幅度比初霜日推迟的幅度更大。初霜日和终霜日的时间序列均分别存在着8~10年和9~11年的准周期变化。初霜日在1998年发生了气候突变,终霜日在1996年发生了气候突变。     

天津电力人体舒适度预报模型

为做好天津电力气象服务工作,提供符合电力负荷预测需求的人体舒适度预报产品,本文根据国内外多种人体舒适度预报模型,利用2002—2005年夏季天津逐日电力负荷数据和气象数据,计算天津市逐日平均人体舒适度,详细分析各模型计算结果与平均气温和气象负荷的对应关系。结果发现,UTCI模型、吕伟林室外预报模型和李源模型计算的人体舒适度更符合天津市人体舒适度感觉,且与电力气象负荷的线性相关性较好。鉴于吕伟林模型在我国应用较广,本文采用最小二乘法对吕伟林室外预报模型进行拟合订正,建立出符合天津市电力气象服务需求的人体舒适度预报模型。     

1955-2005年中国极端气温的变化

利用1955-2005年中国234站逐日最高、最低气温资料,通过计算趋势系数等,研究了中国年、季极端气温变化趋势的时空特征。结果表明：空间分布上,我国年和四季的极端低温均表现出稳定的增温趋势;年、春季和夏季极端高温在黄河下游地区出现了较明显的降温趋势,而在华南地区增温趋势较显著;时间演变上,无论年还是四季,极端低温的增温幅度明显大于极端高温的增幅;极端气温在四季均有增温趋势,尤其以冬季的升温最明显;年极端高温和低温的年代际变化基本一致。     

VICARIOUS RADIOMETRIC CALIBRATION OF SATELLITE FY-ID SENSORS AT VISIBLE AND NEAR INFRARED CHANNELS

For the problem of in-flight test site radiometric calibration for the FY-1D Meteorological Satellite onboard sensor's visible and near infrared channels,this paper described the calibration method,satellite-ground synchronous observation data acquired at China Dunhuang Calibration Test Site,parameter derivation and radiative transfer computation during the calibration,and the calibration result analysis.At FY-1D seven channels (with central wavelength at Channels 1:630 nm,2:865 nm;6:1610 nm;7:455 nm,8:505 nm;9:555 nm;10:932 nm),calibration coefficients obtained during the ground site calibration were compared with that respectively of prelaunch calibration.It is demonstrated that results of FY-1D onboard two sensors' (A and B) at channels 1,2,6 and 10 were close to pre-calibration,and the absolute difference of Gobi desert reflectance computed using test site and pre-launch calibration coefficients was no more than 2%. At other channels,large pre-launch calibration errors resulted in a poor consistency between the test site and pre-launch calibration.The errors can be corrected by the test site calibration results. Based on a rough estimation,the overall error of the calibration was about 6%. The paper also presented the in-flight vicarious calibration at the visible and near infrared channels of FY-1C sensor A which was launched in 1999 and has been put into operational mode since 2002.The results exhibit that FY-1C sensor's response has 23% attenuation at Channels 7 and 8,while only minor degradation at the other channels was found. During the mission,calibrations were also conducted at NOAA-17's Channels 1 and 2 (1:430-830 nm,2:500-1072 nm).A very good consistency has been achieved between the test site and pre-launched calibration results.     

断层摩擦系数及其演化定量研究的新途径

在活断层的力学性质参数中 ,摩擦系数有着特别重要的意义 .它是建立活断层运动学与动力学之间物理力学关系进而促进地震地质研究沿着“由静到动、由定性到定量”方向深入发展的关键性参数之一 ,也是建立活断层重新滑动准则从而定量评估断层稳定性或地震危险性不可缺少的物理参数 .目前 ,断层摩擦系数主要是应用双剪法对采自断层的断层泥进行实验室测试和研究而取得的 .这样取得的结果很难说能够代表断层实际摩擦系数 ,尤其很难反映断层深部摩擦性状 ,采用实验室方法是无法测知不同地质时期断层活动所显示的摩擦性状及其演化特征的 .因此 ,必须寻找定量确定断层摩擦系数及其演化特征的新途径 .通过理论研究和实际应用提出了根据对活断层运动学实测资料的分析并结合年代学测试定量确定断层摩擦系数和动力学主要参数及其演化特征的新途径 .     

南极威德尔海冬季冰脊形拖曳力

利用2006年南极威德尔海冬季科学考察期间由机载激光高度计测得的海冰上表面形态数据,以拖曳分割理论为基础研究了冰脊形拖曳力及其对冰-气总拖曳力的贡献以及中性条件下对应10 m高度处风速的冰-气拖曳系数C_dn(10)。结果显示,在密集冰区,冰脊形拖曳力及其对总拖曳力的贡献随冰脊强度(脊高/脊距)的增大呈递增趋势,而随粗糙长度的增大而减小,对应于威德尔海冬季典型冰脊强度和粗糙长度,占总拖曳力的35%,说明了冰脊形拖曳力在冰-气界面动量交换中的重要作用。C_dn(10)随冰脊强度的增大而增大,但冰脊强度较小时,C_dn(10)随粗糙长度增大而增大;而对较大的冰脊强度,C_dn(10)则随粗糙长度增大而减小。     

Aragonite cycles: diagenesis caught in the act

Organic biomarker and nannofossil assemblages are used in combination with sedimentary petrology to identify the role of diagenesis for the formation of a rhythmic calcareous succession. A record from the Early Pliocene of the Maldives (Ocean Drilling Program, ODP Leg 115) is presented containing precession and eccentricity cycles expressed as variable aragonite content. Additional sub‐Milankovitch cycles are caused by rhythmic precipitation of calcite cement in the lower part of the interval. Comparison with palaeo‐productivity indicators (nannofossils, chlorin, total organic carbon) suggests that cementation occurs preferentially in intervals characterized by increasing or decreasing productivity. The coupled variability in productivity and carbonate diagenesis is attributed to the effect of organic matter degradation in the sediment. The observed combination of primary and diagenetic factors hampers the interpretation of the cyclicity on Milankovitch and sub‐Milankovitch scales. Diagenetically stable proxies for palaeo‐productivity, such as nannofossil assemblage data, were used to distinguish between palaeoclimate and diagenetic influences.     

不同应力状态下地层渗透系数的变化及其对流体运移影响的数值模拟研究

本文选择地层渗透系数受应力影响而变化作为研究流体运移的基础。压实固结和构造作用所产生应力对渗透系数影响的有限元数学模拟研究表明,平均有效应力与介质渗透性能呈负相关的变化趋势,应力驱动流体由应力高值区向应力低值区运移。     

平均入射角道集PP波与PS波联合反演

在界面两侧地层的弹性参数弱反差的假设难以成立的情况下,本文提出用平均入射角道集进行PP波与PS波的联合反演.首先,在PP波与PS波AVA(amplitude versus angle,振幅随入射角变化)道集的基础上,分别选择小入射角范围与大入射角范围的AVA道集进行局部加权叠加,以获得由两个角度组成的平均入射角道集,并作为后续反演的输入数据.然后,再通过最小二乘原理建立了PP波与PS波联合反演目标函数,推导了模型修改量的向量公式,建立了平均入射角道集联合反演的流程.模型数据与实际数据的测试结果表明:在信噪比较低、地层弹性参数反差较大、层厚较薄的情况下,该反演方法的精度在很大程度上超过了基于近似反射系数的反演方法,为复杂油气藏勘探提供了新的思路.     

Stability Analysis and Numerical Simulation of Differential Frost Heave

Differential frost heave is often implicated in the formation of patterned ground in regions subject to recurrent freezing and thawing. A linear stability analysis (LSA) indicates that a continuum model of frost heave is linearly unstable under typical natural freezing conditions of silty-clay soils. A two-dimensional non-linear numerical analysis corroborates the frozen time LSA results, and also indicates the importance of non-linear and time-dependent terms that ultimately lead to a preferred mode, which the LSA fails to predict. Instability of the one-dimensional solution occurs at shallow freezing depths and near-zero surface loads when positive perturbations in the ice content at the freezing front lead to a concomitant increase in thermomolecular pressure and upward ice velocity. Differential frost heave can then occur because of the increased heat flux from the perturbed surfaces. A three-dimensional model using random initial surface perturbations indicates that regular surface patterns will evolve with a length scale in the order of 2–4 meters, which corresponds quite closely with naturally-occurring non-sorted patterned ground.