The use of modern statistical theories in the assessment of earthquake hazard, with application to quiet regions of eastern North America

It is generally accepted that both deterministic and statistical approaches are useful for the characterization of earthquake hazard. Although the most reliable estimates of seismic hazard can only be based on an improved understanding of the earthquake mechanism, efficient utilization of the appropriate methods provided by recent statistical theories is also important in seismic risk analysis. This is especially true in regions where the connection between seismicity and geologic structure is tenuous at best. We are particularly interested in developing better statistical treatments of data for regions with little known seismic activity. To this end, we have applied three statistical methods to the historical record of seismicity in relatively quiet regions of eastern North America. These are: (1) the threshold method for tail inference, a new theory for modeling earthquakes with sizes above a given threshold, (2) the ‘bootstrap’ technique in which the characteristics of an unknown population are simulated by replacing the true population by an estimated one, and (3) a technique to estimate the number of earthquakes below a given size, in order to compensate for the under-reporting of small earthquakes in most catalogs. A combination of these techniques has been used to estimate the probabilities of future large earthquakes for the regions studied. Because of limitations imposed by existing catalogs, the size estimate used has been maximum intensity.     

1999年台湾7.6级大震与江苏-南黄海地区中强震预测

分析讨论了台湾地区7级大震与本区中强震之间相关关系，指出1999年台湾7.6级大震后2－3年内，本区将有5－6级中强震发生。同时应用可公度模型和“带头地震”的异年倍九法联合对本区中强震发震时间进行分析预测。结论表明，该方法可以较好地应用于本区短临地震预报实践。     

Identification of geomorphic process units in Kärkevagge, northern Sweden, by remote sensing and digital terrain analysis

Sediment transport processes in the Kärkevagge are investigated concerning their spatial and temporal characteristics due to long–term monitoring. Within this study remote sensing techniques and GIS modelling in connection with geomorphic mapping are applied for identification and characterization of geomorphic process units. Relationships between geomorphometric parameters and slope processes like solifluction, talus creep and rockfall have been analysed. Multitemporal Landsat–TM5 scenes are used as source for landcover characteristics (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) after preprocessing involving orthorectification and topographic normalization in order to remove possible terrain–induced effects. Additionally, a digital elevation model with a resolution of 20 m for the Kärkevagge catchment is developed and parameters like slope gradient, slope aspect and profile curvature are extracted as input for the analysis of the sediment transport system. The combination of landcover information, geomorphometrical and topological features allows the definition of areas for single process activities. They show specific sediment displacement characteristics depending on material conditions, topological and geometrical features. Geomorphic process units, which show a homogenous composition, are extracted from these available layers.     

川滇藏三江流域生态环境功能区建设目标及影响预测

三江流域具有特殊严酷的自然环境和相对落后的经济条件,本区域的生态环境极度脆弱,不但限制了本区域的经济发展,还严重威胁着中下游地区的安全。本文运用景观生态学原理,从流域生态环境功能区建设目标及影响预测两个方面分析,提出了三江流域生态功能区建设的措施,对生态功能建设的效果进行了预测。     

星载微波散射计技术及其在极地的应用

简要介绍了微波散射计的原理、星载微波散射计的发展状况及用于提高散射计图像空间分辨率的图像滤波重建算法。在此基础上结合几种星载微波散射计数据简要介绍了微波散射计在南北两极的应用情况 (海冰图测绘、海冰运动监测、海冰分类、极地冰盖研究等 )及其未来研究展望。     

Eco-environment range in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers

Based on geographical and hydrological extents delimited, four principles are identified, as the bases for delineating the ranges of the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers in the paper. According to the comprehensive analysis of topographical characteristics, climate conditions, vegetation distribution and hydrological features, the source region ranges for eco-environmental study are defined. The eastern boundary point is Dari hydrological station in the upper reach of the Yellow River. The watershed above Dari hydrological station is the source region of the Yellow River which drains an area of 4.49×104 km2. Natural environment is characterized by the major topographical types of plateau lakes and marshland, gentle landforms, alpine cold semi-arid climate, and steppe and meadow vegetation in the source region of the Yellow River. The eastern boundary point is the convergent site of the Nieqiaqu and the Tongtian River in the upstream of the Yangtze River. The watershed above the convergent site is the source region of the Yangtze River, with a watershed area of 12.24×104 km2. Hills and alpine plain topography, gentle terrain, alpine cold arid and semi-arid climate, and alpine cold grassland and meadow are natural conditions in the source region of the Yangtze River.     

油气差异泵吸作用机理探讨——以泌阳凹陷为例

通过对泌阳凹陷油气成藏过程的系统研究,发现在差异抬升过程中,深凹源岩区抬升幅度小,凹陷四周圈闭发育区抬升幅度大,差异抬升运动导致源岩和圈闭之间的势能差急剧增大,从而促使油气大规模沿砂体向圈闭充注,这一过程类似于水泵抽水的过程,据此,文中提出了油气泵吸作用和油气差异泵吸作用的概念及机理,并以泌阳凹陷为例讨论了油气差异泵吸作用的形成条件、主要影响因素及油气差异泵吸作用对油气差异分布的控制作用。研究表明:影响油气差异泵吸作用的因素主要有势能梯度、通道质量和泵源配置及油气运移距离;泌阳凹陷油气分布总体上受成藏运聚系统的控制,在各运聚系统内油气分布受油气差异泵吸作用的控制,其中势能梯度、泵源配置及油气运移距离是影响油气差异分布的主要因素,而在每一个大泵(复合泵)内部,通道质量差异是影响油气差异分布的主要因素。     

西北干旱区深层岩溶地下水系统的水化学-同位素研究--以宁南“南北古脊梁”岩溶水系统为例

运用构造控水分析、水化学同位素等方法，对宁南“南北古脊梁”岩溶裂隙水系统进行了深入的分析与讨论。本区储水空间以岩溶裂隙为主，岩溶水的空间分布明显受南北向大型断裂构造控制。岩溶地下水以大气降水起源为主，并表现为多元水混合。水质分布呈南优北劣的分带特征，北部水-岩相互作用形式为溶滤-蒸发浓缩型，呈高矿化咸水；南部为溶滤-混合型，呈低矿化淡水。根据水动力场和水化学场特征，划分了3个相对独立的岩溶水子系统。     

两等级网不使用导数的联合非线性最小二乘估计

针对不同等级测量控制网的联合平差，介绍一种不使用导数的解析方法，该方法一方面克服了传统平差中由于起算数据误差对低级网的精度影响，而使加密的精度逐次降低的缺点；另一方面，完全避免了导数的计算，大大减少了计算工作量。     

气象卫星观测资料的分析在城市区域气象环境研究中的应用

目前 ,我国气象部门相当普遍地拥有气象卫星观测资料 ,但是 ,这些资料如何在城市气象服务以及为城市建设规划等方面的决策研究中发挥作用 ,急待进一步研究并开展工作。本文试图通过合理的反演处理 ,给出卫星观测对地面温度的测量结果 ,由此可比较细致地分析了解地面热状况及其与土地利用类型 ,地面覆盖性质等的关系。本文利用有限的 NOAA- AVHRR气象卫星遥感资料 ,采用修正的 Ulivieri分裂窗方法反演出同期的地表温度场 ,通过对北京地区的卫星观测资料进行算例分析 ,揭示出一个 2 0 0 km× 2 0 0 km范围内的地面温度分布特征。反演结果可以明显地揭示出城市热岛现象的变化规律 ,并且能较为清楚地反映出相对的高温区和低温区