病态线性模型及其优良算法综述

本文扼要讨论了线性模型病态问题，综合论述了目前几种解算方法的思想及优缺点．     

奇异值分解方法在季降水预测中的应用

用奇异值分解方法对冬季北太平洋海表温度与广东省４－６月降水量之间的关系进行了计算，得出奇异向量分布型。对前６对奇异向量进行了分析，并用历史资料进行了反查检验，用１９９４年和１９９５年的海温型进行了广东的降水趋势预测     

Maximum likelihood estimation of Gutenberg-Richterb parameter for uncertain magnitude values

The maximum likelihood estimation of theb parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter relation is extended to the case of uncertain magnitude. An interval which contains the real unknown magnitude is used rather than the uncertain magnitude itself. The proposed approach is very flexible, it allows for the combination of the parts of a catalog of different quality into a single minimally biased set of recurrence parameters.On leave from the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, 00-973 Warsaw, Pasteura 3, Poland     

Unbiased estimation of flood risk with the GEV distribution

Conventional flood frequency analysis is concerned with providing an unbiased estimate of the magnitude of the design flow exceeded with the probabilityp, but sampling uncertainties imply that such estimates will, on average, be exceeded more frequently. An alternative approach is therefore, to derive an estimator which gives an unbiased estimate of flow risk: the difference between the two magnitudes reflects uncertainties in parameter estimation. An empirical procedure has been developed to estimate the mean true exceedance probabilities of conventional estimates made using a GEV distribution fitted by probability weighted moments, and adjustment factors have been determined to enable the estimation of flood magnitudes exceeded with, on average, the desired probability.     

FFT实现物理大地测量边值问题类型转换

本文讨论了用快速付里叶变换(FFT)由大地水准面高度数据反算重力异常数据,由此提出了用FFT实现物理大地测量过值问题类型转换这一思想,并与正交基函数法进行了比较,从而得出运用FFT这一方法能达到简化边值问题本身和运算步骤以及节省计算时间的目的。     

水溶液的pH值对铀沉淀的影响

形成酸性或碱性含铀溶液,而后又发生中和作用,这是形成铀矿床的一对极有利的条件。接近中性的水介质有利于铀的沉淀。中和作用是各种铀沉淀作用的触发钮。由中和作用引起的铀的还原沉淀作用称为中和还原作用。铀的还原沉淀是在水-铀比电位值△Eh_水~U<0的条件下发生的(△Eh_水~U=Eh_水-Eh_0~U)。铀的还原沉淀不仅是依靠Eh_水的降低,同时与Eh_水~U的回升或下降速率有关。花岗岩铀矿床中往往不存在强烈的还原剂,热液上升过程中,一般很难提高它的还原能力,这时中和还原作用就显得格外重要。这是研究铀矿成矿机制和富矿条件的一条新线索。     

用振幅衰减系数和卓越频率衰减系数测定Q值的探讨

云南地区小震活动频繁,为充分利用这些小震所提供的信息,我们讨论了小震地震波振幅衰减系数和卓越频率衰减系数的变化,并探讨了这两个系数和Q值的关系。     

模型偏差与定位震源深度

简要分析了定位模型偏差对震源深度测定的影响,提出了有利于抑制模型偏差作用,提高测震定位精度的主要途径。     

The two-component extreme value distribution for flood frequency analysis: Derivation of a new estimation method

The two component extreme value (TCEV) distribution has recently been shown to account for most of the characteristics of the real flood experience. A new method of parameter estimation for this distribution is derived using the principle of maximum entropy (POME). This method of parameter estimation is suitable for application in both the site-specific and regional cases and appears simpler than the maximum likelihood estimation method. Statistical properties of the regionalized estimation were evaluated using a Monte Carlo approach and compared with those of the maximum likelihood regional estimators.     

Least squares parameter estimation in chaotic differential equations

A recent least squares algorithm, which is designed to adapt implicit models to given sets of data, especially models given by differential equations or dynamical systems, is reviewed and used to fit the Hénon-Heiles differential equations to chaotic data sets.This numerical approach for estimating parameters in differential equation models, called theboundary value problem approach, is based on discretizing the differential equations like a boundary value problem,e.g. by a multiple shooting or collocation method, and solving the resulting constrained least squares problem with a structure exploiting generalized Gauss-Newton-Method (Bock, 1981).Dynamical systems like the Hénon-Heiles system which can have initial values and parameters that lead to positive Lyapunov exponents or phase space filling Poincaré maps give rise to chaotic time series. Various scenarios representing ideal and noisy data generated from the Hénon-Heiles system in the chaotic region are analyzedw.r.t. initial conditions, parameters and Lyapunov exponents. The original initial conditions and parameters are recovered with a given accuracy. The Lyapunov spectrum is then computed directly from the identified differential equations and compared to the spectrum of the true dynamics.presently at IWR, Universität Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 368, D-6900 Heidelberg, Germany