A case for a reassessment of the risks of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean

There is an urgent need for the development and implementation of modern statistical methodology for long-term risk assessment of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean. Notwithstanding the inevitable scarcity of data relating to extreme events, recent results and approaches call into question standard methods of estimation of the risks of environmental catastrophes that are currently adopted. Estimation of extreme hazards is often based on the Gumbel model and on crude methods for estimating predictive probabilities. In both cases the result is often a remarkable underestimation of the predicted probabilities for disasters of large magnitude. Simplifications do not stop here: assumptions of data homogeneity and temporal independence are usually made regardless of potential inconsistencies with genuine process behaviour and the fact that results may be sensitive to such mis-specifications. These issues are of particular relevance for the Caribbean, given its exposure to diverse meteorological climate conditions.In this article we present an examination of predictive methodologies for the assessment of long-term risks of hydrological hazards, with particular focus on applications to rainfall and flooding, motivated by three data sets from the Caribbean region. Consideration is given to classical and Bayesian methods of inference for annual maxima and daily peaks-over-threshold models. We also examine situations where data non-homogeneity is compromised by an unknown seasonal structure, and the situation in which the process under examination has a physical upper limit. We highlight the fact that standard Gumbel analyses routinely assign near-zero probability to subsequently observed disasters, and that for San Juan, Puerto Rico, standard 100-year predicted rainfall estimates may be routinely underestimated by a factor of two.     

浙江及邻区尾波Q值研究

基于单次散射(Aki)模型,利用2000年至今浙江及安徽台网记录的37次ML3.0以上地震的数字地震波资料,计算了浙江及邻近省区平均尾波Q值,并拟合了Q值对频率的依赖关系数据。结果为:Q(f)=212±33.5f0.62±0.11,与国内其它区域相比,本区域为Q值高值、对频率低依赖性区域。认为本研究区内构造活动弱,地震活动水平低。本文就Q值对频率、尾波窗长等的依赖性特征及影响Q值计算的噪声水平、滤波器、数据采样等因素进行了深入分析。     

预应力管桩在汕头地区施工中几个问题的探讨

通过对汕头地区预应力管桩历年来的施工实例资料分析，根据汕头地区工程地质条件的特点和实践经验，对预应力管桩的设计、施工提出几点探讨性意见。     

采用掏土纠偏及袖阀管加固技术整治铁路桥涵不均匀沉降

某钢筋混凝土箱形铁路桥发生不均匀沉降,经方案优化对比,采用了沉井射水掏土纠偏和塑料袖阀管注浆加固进行综合治理。介绍了其施工工艺和治理效果。     

以高斯理论为基础计算弯曲钻孔节点空间坐标

为了拟合出更加接近钻孔实际的曲线,结合钻孔测斜实际,以严密的高斯理论为基础,给出了以钻孔天顶角和倾角为参数的弯曲钻孔的参数方程。并在此基础上,推出了钻孔曲线各点的计算公式,更准确地描述了钻孔的实际情况,为后续工作剖面图的绘制和储量计算提供了基础。这里使用高斯和折线法作为一个实例,对比计算了赤土店铅锌矿区ZK13002钻孔。计算结果表明:在钻孔曲线形状、累计弧长、插值点特征等多个方面的高斯法都优于折线法,而因算法的改变引起的工作量又是很小的。     

应用深层平板载荷试验选择桩端持力层

深层平板载荷试验是一种新兴的原位测试方法。通过安阳某工程人工挖孔扩底灌注桩深层平板载荷试验的现场实践,确定了不同土层地基土的承载力特征值,为设计单位选择持力层提供数据,并为甲方节省了大量建设资金。     

青海玉树单台地震序列的尾波Q值研究

利用玉树单台记录到的2006年7月19日玉树Ms5．4级地震序列的数字地震波形资料，计算了不同频率下该序列尾波Q值的变化特征，为今后将数字地震资料应用到地震预报工作中提供了参考依据。     

宜宾市宋家地区土壤元素背景值研究及其意义

作者在表层土壤系统采样调查的基础上,计算出宋家地区土壤元素地球化学背景值,并通过与不同区域土壤元素地球化学背景值、基准值的对比研究,总结了该区土壤元素地球化学基本特征,为该区土壤资源、环境评价和农业经济发展规划提供了实用地球化学信息。     

偏重钻铤在丁集矿冻结造孔施工中的应用

钻井技术的关键是预防及控制孔斜,通过对目前常用4种防斜钻具组合的适岩性、井深、井斜及钻效等指标对比,在冻结造孔施工中选用了适用地层广、防斜性能好并具有纠斜作用的偏重钻铤。为发挥偏重钻铤的防斜作用,宜增大转速,并使钻铤减去部分的重量应位于离轴线尽可能远的部位。在淮南丁集冻结孔施工的三十多口钻孔中,井斜一般均在0．5°以内,钻效超过2400m/台·月。     

浙江土壤地球化学基准值与环境背景值

以浙江省农业地质环境调查取得的区域地球化学资料(2002—2004年)为依据,遵循地球化学背景值的基本概念,根据成土母质类型将土壤地球化学基准值划分成13个统计单元,土壤环境背景值以浙北杭嘉湖与宁绍平原、浙东沿海温黄与温瑞平原、浙中金衢盆地区统计单元,在反复剔除异常数据后,获得了52种元素(氧化物)的平均值、标准离差和变异系数,为区域土壤环境质量标准的制订、土壤污染评价和治理修复提供了重要的地球化学依据。