Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions

An ability to quantify the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation predictions is a requirement not only for guiding model development but also for their successful application. Probabilistic flood inundation predictions are usually produced by choosing a method of weighting the model parameter space, but previous study suggests that this choice leads to clear differences in inundation probabilities. This study aims to address the evaluation of the reliability of these probabilistic predictions. However, a lack of an adequate number of observations of flood inundation for a catchment limits the application of conventional methods of evaluating predictive reliability. Consequently, attempts have been made to assess the reliability of probabilistic predictions using multiple observations from a single flood event. Here, a LISFLOOD‐FP hydraulic model of an extreme (>1 in 1000 years) flood event in Cockermouth, UK, is constructed and calibrated using multiple performance measures from both peak flood wrack mark data and aerial photography captured post‐peak. These measures are used in weighting the parameter space to produce multiple probabilistic predictions for the event. Two methods of assessing the reliability of these probabilistic predictions using limited observations are utilized; an existing method assessing the binary pattern of flooding, and a method developed in this paper to assess predictions of water surface elevation. This study finds that the water surface elevation method has both a better diagnostic and discriminatory ability, but this result is likely to be sensitive to the unknown uncertainties in the upstream boundary condition. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

应用新安江-海河模型研究下垫面变化对设计洪水的影响

为了探明流域产汇流参数变化特征及其演变机理,分析流域下垫面条件变化对设计洪水的影响.通过新安江海河模型研究卫河流域代表区下垫面变化情况,采用综合线性权重法对元村集站设计洪水资料系列进行一致性修正.结果表明:自由水蓄水容量、河网水流退水系数、地表填洼蓄水能力和地下水库出流初始水深这4个参数在1980年后都变大,可见代表区下垫面1980年前、后发生了明显的变化,导致流域内径流量大幅减少;合河—新村—五陵区间在1980年前15场洪水和1980年后32场洪水的预报径流深合格率都超过80%,达到乙等精度;元村集站最大5日洪量修正后比修正前平均减小27.1%;最大15日洪量修正后比修正前平均减小25.4%;最大30日洪量修正后比修正前平均减小23.0%.本研究可为水利工程的建设规模的确定提供科学依据,保障地区的防洪安全,满足人民生活和生产用水需求.     

Optimum design and application of non‐traditional tuned mass damper toward seismic response control with experimental test verification

A variant type of tuned mass damper (TMD) termed as ‘non‐traditional TMD (NTTMD)’ is recently proposed. Mainly focusing on the employment of TMD for seismic response control, especially for base‐isolated or high‐rise structures, this paper aims to derive design formulae of NTTMDs based on two methodologies with different targets. One is the fixed points theory with the performance index set as the maximum magnitude of the frequency response function of the relative displacement of the primary structure with respect to the ground acceleration, and the other is the stability maximization criterion (SMC) to make the free vibration of the primary structure decay in the minimum duration. Such optimally designed NTTMDs are compared with traditional TMDs by conducting both numerical simulations and experiments. The optimum‐designed NTTMDs are demonstrated to be more effective than the optimum‐designed traditional TMDs, with smaller stroke length required. In particular, the effectiveness of the TMDs combined with a base‐isolated structure is investigated by small‐scale model experimental tests subjected to a time scaled long period impulsive excitation, and it is demonstrated that the SMC‐based NTTMD can suppress structural free vibration responses in the minimum duration and requires much smaller accommodation space. Additionally, a small‐scale shaking table experiment on a high‐rise bending model attached with a SMC‐based NTTMD is conducted. This study indicates that NTTMD has a high potential to apply to seismic response control or retrofit of structures such as base‐isolated or central column‐integrated high‐rise structures even if only a limited space is available for accommodating TMDs. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flood frequency analysis of Turkey using L‐moments method

The index flood procedure coupled with the L‐moments method is applied to the annual flood peaks data taken at all stream‐gauging stations in Turkey having at least 15‐year‐long records. First, screening of the data is done based on the discordancy measure (D_i) in terms of the L‐moments. Homogeneity of the total geographical area of Turkey is tested using the L‐moments based heterogeneity measure, H, computed on 500 simulations generated using the four parameter Kappa distribution. The L‐moments analysis of the recorded annual flood peaks data at 543 gauged sites indicates that Turkey as a whole is hydrologically heterogeneous, and 45 of 543 gauged sites are discordant which are discarded from further analyses. The catchment areas of these 543 sites vary from 9·9 to 75121 km² and their mean annual peak floods vary from 1·72 to 3739·5 m³ s^?1. The probability distributions used in the analyses, whose parameters are computed by the L‐moments method are the general extreme values (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized normal (GNO), Pearson type III (PE3), generalized Pareto (GPA), and five‐parameter Wakeby (WAK). Based on the L‐moment ratio diagrams and the |Z_dist|‐statistic criteria, the GEV distribution is identified as the robust distribution for the study area (498 gauged sites). Hence, for estimation of flood magnitudes of various return periods in Turkey, a regional flood frequency relationship is developed using the GEV distribution. Next, the quantiles computed at all of 543 gauged sites by the GEV and the Wakeby distributions are compared with the observed values of the same probability based on two criteria, mean absolute relative error and determination coefficient. Results of these comparisons indicate that both distributions of GEV and Wakeby, whose parameters are computed by the L‐moments method, are adequate in predicting quantile estimates. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparing gravity and gravity gradient surveys

Noise levels in marine and airborne full tensor gravity gradiometer surveys together with conventional land, marine and airborne gravity surveys are estimated and analysed in gridded form, resulting in relations that detail how these different survey systems can be compared analytically. After defining survey parameters including line spacing, speed and instrument bandwidth, the relations estimate the noise levels that result on either grids of gravity (gz) or gravity gradient (Gzz) as a function of the spatial filtering often applied during geological interpretation. Such comparisons are believed to be a useful preliminary guide for survey selection and planning.     

Analysis of buried pipelines subjected to reverse fault motion

Presently available simplified analytical methods and semi-empirical methods for the analysis of buried pipelines subjected to fault motion are suitable only for the strike-slip and the normal-slip type fault motions, and cannot be used for the reverse fault crossing case. A simple finite element model, which uses beam elements for the pipeline and discrete nonlinear springs for the soil, has been proposed to analyse buried pipeline subjected to reverse fault motion. The material nonlinearities associated with pipe-material and soil, and geometric nonlinearity associated with large deformations were incorporated in the analysis. Complex reverse fault motion was simulated using suitable constraints between pipe-nodes and ground ends of the soil spring. Results of the parametric study suggest that the pipeline's capacity to accommodate reverse fault offset can be increased significantly by choosing a near-parallel orientation in plan with respect to the fault line. Further improvement in the response of the pipeline is possible by adopting loose backfill, smooth and hard surface coating, and shallow burial depth in the fault crossing region. For normal or near normal orientations, pipeline is expected to fail due to beam buckling at very small fault offsets.     

Interactions between river flows and colonizing vegetation on a braided river: exploring spatial and temporal dynamics in riparian vegetation cover using satellite data

Field, laboratory, and numerical modelling research are increasingly demonstrating the potential of riparian tree colonization and growth to influence fluvial dynamics and the evolution of fluvial landforms. This paper jointly analyses multi‐temporal, multispectral ASTER data, continuous river stage and discharge data, and field observations of the growth rates of the dominant riparian tree species (Populus nigra) along a 21 km reach of the Tagliamento River, Italy. Research focuses on the period 2004–2009, during which there was a bankfull flood on 24 October 2004, followed by 2 years with low water levels, nearly 2 years with only modest flow pulses, and then a final period from 15 August 2008 that included several intermediate to bankfull flow events. This study period of increasing flow disturbance allows the exploration of vegetation dynamics within the river's active corridor under changing flow conditions. The analysis demonstrates the utility of ASTER data for investigating vegetation dynamics along large fluvial corridors and reveals both spatial and temporal variations in the expansion, coalescence, and erosion of vegetated patches within the study reach. Changes in the extent of the vegetated area and its dynamics vary along the study reach. In sub‐reaches where riparian tree growth is vigorous, the vegetated area expands rapidly during time periods without channel‐shaping flows, and is subsequently able to resist erosion by bankfull floods. In contrast, in sub‐reaches where tree growth is less vigorous, the vegetated area expands at a slower rate and is more readily re‐set by bankfull flood events. This illustrates that the rate of growth of riparian trees is crucial to their ability to contribute actively to river corridor dynamics. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tall building vibration control using a TM‐MR damper assembly: Experimental results and implementation

This paper summarizes the relevant results of the design, construction, testing, and implementation of a nominal 120 kN magnetorheological damper developed to control a free‐plan tall building in Santiago, Chile, equipped with two 160‐ton tuned masses. Cyclic as well as hybrid simulation tests were performed on the prototype damper. Global building responses using measured MR properties showed good correlation with analytical estimations. Also, a proposed physical controller for the MR damper was validated through hybrid and building pull‐back tests. Its performance is essentially equivalent to that of an LQR controller, but the information needed in its implementation is considerably less. Pull‐back tests of 10 cm amplitude were performed on one mass along the flexible edge of the building and its response controlled using the passive and controlled modes of the MR damper. The MR damper was capable of controlling the TM displacements very effectively, as well as the simulated building response for different ground motions and harmonic excitation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.