A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model for natural channels

A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model (FDFRM) for natural channels is presented, wherein the flood wave can be approximated to a monoclinal wave. This study is based on modification of an earlier published work by the same authors, where the nature of the wave was of gravity type. Momentum equation of the dynamic wave model is replaced by a fuzzy rule based model, while retaining the continuity equation in its complete form. Hence, the FDFRM gets rid of the assumptions associated with the momentum equation. Also, it overcomes the necessity of calculating friction slope (S_f) in flood routing and hence the associated uncertainties are eliminated. The fuzzy rule based model is developed on an equation for wave velocity, which is obtained in terms of discontinuities in the gradient of flow parameters. The channel reach is divided into a number of approximately uniform sub‐reaches. Training set required for development of the fuzzy rule based model for each sub‐reach is obtained from discharge‐area relationship at its mean section. For highly heterogeneous sub‐reaches, optimized fuzzy rule based models are obtained by means of a neuro‐fuzzy algorithm. For demonstration, the FDFRM is applied to flood routing problems in a fictitious channel with single uniform reach, in a fictitious channel with two uniform sub‐reaches and also in a natural channel with a number of approximately uniform sub‐reaches. It is observed that in cases of the fictitious channels, the FDFRM outputs match well with those of an implicit numerical model (INM), which solves the dynamic wave equations using an implicit numerical scheme. For the natural channel, the FDFRM outputs are comparable to those of the HEC‐RAS model. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical characterization of impact of system variables on temporal dynamics of groundwater in highly weathered regoliths

In situations where the water table fluctuates during the rainy season the characterization of the impact of system variables on the temporal dynamics of the groundwater (GW) is essential to improve the understanding at catchment or regional scale behaviour of GW. In this study the appropriateness of the statistical parameters; mean, median, the 80^th percentile (PC80), coefficient of variation (CV), correlation coefficient (r), and multiple regression models were assessed to characterize the impact of system variables on the temporal dynamics of hydraulic head relative to ground surface (HH) during rainy seasons. The study was conducted from 1999 to 2003 in the wet tropical Johnstone River catchment (JRC) in north‐east Queensland, Australia. Piezometer wells were installed at 32 sites under cropping to 5–90 m depth on different soil types, landscape positions, and varying proximity to surface water bodies (i.e. four system variables). The HH was measured, at least at 10–15 day intervals during 1–5 consecutive rainy seasons. The HH in the 32 wells fluctuated throughout each of the five rainy seasons. The mean HH averaged over the seasons ranged from 1·1 to 17·2 m across the wells, the median from 0·9 to 17·3 m, and the PC80 from 0·3 to 16·1 m. The temporal behaviour of HH characterization by mean of means of HH, the mean of medians of HH, and the mean of PC80 of HH, indicated the HH can be classified to belong to three different groups for each one of these parameters. The impact of the system variables on temporal dynamics, explored using multiple regression procedure, indicated that the model for median was marginally better than mean. The CV was found to be most appropriate parameter to characterize the impact of GW system variable (aquifer type), a component of the system variables, on temporal dynamics. The interactions of GW (i) belonging to different GW system and (ii) at shoulder with footslope in a landscape were best characterized by simple linear correlations. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulations for multi-object spectrograph planet surveys

Radial velocity surveys for extrasolar planets generally require substantial amounts of large telescope time in order to monitor a sufficient number of stars. Two of the aspects which can limit such surveys are the single-object capabilities of the spectrograph, and an inefficient observing strategy for a given observing window. In addition, the detection rate of extrasolar planets using the radial velocity method has thus far been relatively linear with time. With the development of various multi-object Doppler survey instruments, there is growing potential to dramatically increase the detection rate using the Doppler method. Several of these instruments have already begun usage in large-scale surveys for extrasolar planets, such as Fibre Large Array Multi Element Spectrograph (FLAMES) on the Very Large Telescope (VLT) and Keck Exoplanet Tracker (ET) on the Sloan 2.5-m wide-field telescope.
In order to plan an effective observing strategy for such a program, one must examine the expected results based on a given observing window and target selection. We present simulations of the expected results from a generic multi-object survey based on calculated noise models and sensitivity for the instrument and the known distribution of exoplanetary system parameters. We have developed code for automatically sifting and fitting the planet candidates produced by the survey to allow for fast follow-up observations to be conducted. The techniques presented here may be applied to a wide range of multi-object planet surveys.     

White dwarf + red dwarf binary systems and the period gap of cataclysmic variables

Cataclysmic variables (CV) and pre-cataclysmic binaries (PCB) are discussed. The main difference between them (accretion or its absence) is shown to be a consequence of the evolutionary process and the properties of their progenitors. Both types of system have a bimodal distribution of their periods, but the extrema are in counterphase. Luminosity-effective temperature diagrams for the primary components are used to show that both systems have approximately the same age, which conflicts with the notion of PCBs as precursors of CVs. Calculations of the maximum distance between components for which the system remains stable show that CVs have passed this limit, while PCBs maintain their stability during this evolution. It is suggested that, after ejecting a common shell, future CVs immediately become semi-detached systems. It this is so, then there must be cataclysmic variables which are the central stars of planetary nebulae. __________ Translated from Astrofizika, Vol. 50, No. 3, pp. 427–439 (August 2007).     

A Bayesian periodogram finds evidence for three planets in HD 11964

A Bayesian multiplanet Kepler periodogram has been developed for the analysis of precision radial velocity data. The periodogram employs a parallel tempering Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The HD 11964 data have been re-analysed using 1, 2, 3 and 4 planet models. Assuming that all the models are equally probable a priori, the three planet model is found to be ≥600 times more probable than the next most probable model which is a two planet model. The most probable model exhibits three periods of  38.02^+0.06_−0.05, 360⁺⁴₋₄ and 1924⁺⁴⁴₋₄₃ d  , and eccentricities of  0.22^+0.11_−0.22, 0.63^+0.34_−0.17 and 0.05^+0.03_−0.05  , respectively. Assuming the three signals (each one consistent with a Keplerian orbit) are caused by planets, the corresponding limits on planetary mass ( M sin  i ) and semimajor axis are     respectively. The small difference (1.3σ) between the 360-d period and one year suggests that it might be worth investigating the barycentric correction for the HD 11964 data.