Impact of Surface Potential Vorticity Density Forcing over the Tibetan Plateau on the South China Extreme Precipitation in January 2008. Part Ⅱ:Numerical Simulation

The surface air convergence on the eastern flank of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can increase the in situ surface potential vorticity density (PVD). Since the elevated TP intersects with the isentropic surfaces in the lower troposphere, the increased PVD on the eastern flank of TP thus forms a PVD forcing to the intersected isentropic surface in the boundary layer. The influence of surface PVD forcing over the TP on the extreme freezing rain/snow over South China in January 2008 is investigated by using numerical experiments based on the Finite-volume Atmospheric Model of the IAP/LASG (FAMIL). Compared with observations, the simulation results show that, by using a nudging method for assimilating observation data in the initial flow, this model can reasonably reproduce the distribution of precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and PVD propagation over and downstream of the TP during the extreme winter precipitation period. In order to investigate the impact of the increased surface PVD over the TP on the extreme precipitation in South China, a sensitivity experiment with surface PVD reduced over the TP region was performed. Compared with the control experiment, it is found that the precipitation in the TP downstream area, especially in Southeast China, is reduced. The rainband from Guangxi Region to Shandong Province has almost disappeared. In the lower troposphere, the increase of surface PVD over the TP region has generated an anomalous cyclonic circulation over southern China, which plays an important role in increasing southerly wind and the water vapor transport in this area;it also increases the northward negative absolute vorticity advection. In the upper troposphere, the surface PVD generated in eastern TP propagates on isentropic surface along westerly wind and results in positive absolute vorticity advection in the downstream areas. Consequently, due to the development of both ascending motion and water vapor transport in the downstream place of the TP, extremely heavy precipitation occurs over southern China. Thereby, a new mechanism concerning the influence of the increased surface PVD over the eastern TP slopes on the extreme weather event occurring over southern China is revealed.     

EFFECTS OF SST, VWS, AND DCC UPON RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF OFF-SHORE TYPHOONS IN CHINA SEAS

In this study, we employed National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCAR) reanalysis data and records from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Yearbook of Tropical Cyclones to investigate three factors: sea-surface temperature(SST), vertical wind shear(VWS),and the density of the core convection(DCC), which are responsible for the rapid intensification(RI) of 1949-2013 offshore typhoons. Our analysis results of these composite factors show that in the environmental wind field the typhoons are far away from the outer strong VWS; in the SST field they are in the high SST area; and the core convective activity is robust and takes a bimodal pattern. The difference in RI between typhoons over the East China Sea(ECS) and the South China Sea(SCS) is a smaller VWS for the ECS typhoons, which may be one of the reasons why typhoons in the ECS are more intense than those in the SCS. Our study results indicate that SST, VWS, and DCC can result in an RI after a certain time interval of 36 h, 24 h to 30 h, and 24 h, respectively. The RI indicates a lag in the atmospheric response to oceanic conditions. This lag characteristic makes it possible to predict RI events. In summary, where the SST is high(≥28 ℃), the VWS is small, and the DCC is high, an RI will occur. Where mid-range SSTs occur(26 ℃≤SST≤28 ℃), with small VWS, and high DCC, the RI of typhoons is also likely to occur.     

2017年太湖水华面积偏大的原因分析

太湖流域及湖区经过一系列综合治理之后,截至2015年,水华面积逐渐减少,治理效果初见成效.然而,2017年太湖出现了前所未有的大面积水华（1403 km²）,其原因成为各方面关注的热点问题.2011-2017年,在太湖贡湖湾和梅梁湾布置的6个采样点,每月2次分层采集水质和微囊藻密度数据、全太湖的营养盐和微囊藻密度数据、气象数据和水华面积数据,进行了水华面积偏大的原因分析.结果显示,2011-2017年期间,全太湖总氮（TN）的7年平均浓度为1.89 mg/L,总磷（TP）为0.076 mg/L,而2017年TN浓度为1.60 mg/L,TP浓度为0.083 mg/L,比7年平均TP浓度回升了9.0%.气温方面,2011-2017年7年平均气温为17.3℃,2017年比7年平均气温高出0.7℃.全太湖7年平均微囊藻密度为0.53×10⁸ cells/L,而2017年为1.18×10⁸ cells/L,比7年平均值高出1.21倍.在这样一个数据背景下,全太湖年均值和风速区间比例冗余分析表明TP的回升、气温的偏高与水华面积也表现出明显的正相关关系,且5-9月1~2 m/s弱风天数与水华面积呈显著正相关,而风速超过4 m/s则会显著造成水华的消失.综合以上数据及分析,2017年出现巨大面积水华是由于全湖TP浓度的上升和气温偏高使微囊藻密度增长,为微囊藻聚集形成水华提供了丰富的物质基础,而在微囊藻大量繁殖季节风力较弱,1~2 m/s左右风速易于使微囊藻聚集形成薄层大面积水华.     

基于约束三维重力反演的南极大陆地壳密度结构研究

地壳密度是表征其物质组成以及结构特征的一个基本参数,是深入理解构造演化、地球动力学等问题的重要基础.本文利用最新发布的布格重力异常数据,以现有的三维S波速度模型、地表热流以及岩石学数据作为约束条件,采用引入深度加权函数的三维重力反演算法,获取了南极大陆三维精细密度结构模型.研究结果显示,南极大陆地壳尺度范围内密度异常在-0.25~0.20 g·cm^-3之间.大致以南极横断山脉为界,受中生代与新生代多期拉张活动的影响,西南极上地壳密度异常以低值为主,与东南极克拉通的高密度异常呈现明显对比关系.通过对比发现,反演的密度结构与岩石圈强度信息存在较好的相关性.进一步分析西南极裂谷系统的密度结构与岩石圈强度,认为受新生代拉张活动和岩浆活动影响的局部地区除外,热沉降作用很可能使得地壳趋于冷却.此外,西南极的低密度特征延伸到南极横断山脉,结合现有的研究结果认为可能需要多种机制来解释南极横断山脉的隆升过程.

     

基于重力数据特征的东北地区深部动力机制解析

中国东北地区处于古亚洲构造域、蒙古-鄂霍茨克构造域和环太平洋构造域叠加作用最为显著的地区,是地学研究的热点区域.为了探析欧亚大陆下西太平洋板片的俯冲形态以及揭示该区域深部地球动力学机制,利用卫星重力数据通过预处理共轭梯度快速密度反演算法获得了包含东北地区、华北部分地区及日本海海域在内的研究区域上地幔三维密度结构,结合天然地震三维层析成像结果共同揭示太平洋板片的俯冲形态和深部动力机制.俯冲的太平洋板片在日本海沟处呈高密度异常,向西横向持续扩张,深度方向上有逐渐增加趋势.不连续的高密度体俯冲至地幔转换带（410~660 km）后继续水平西向俯冲,部分滞留板片可能进入下地幔;在大兴安岭断裂带下面转换带中同样发现水平分布的高密度体,推断是大兴安岭断裂带下方地幔岩石圈拆沉的结果,横向不均匀分布的俯冲板片边缘已抵至大兴安岭造山带附近,这对于研究东北地区深部动力学机制具有重要的意义.

     

A stochastic approach to site-response component in seismic ground motion coherency model

In order to account for the site-response part of the seismic ground motion coherency for sites of interest, an analytical stochastic methodology is proposed in this paper. By combining the pseudo-excitation method with wave motion finite element simulation techniques, a numerical approach for the computation of the coherency function between observation points is developed firstly. Then the orthogonal expansion method is introduced into this approach to study the effect of the uncertainty in soil properties on the coherency function. Finally some numerical examples are given to show the applicability of the methodology. The computational results demonstrate that the lagged coherency values tend to decrease in the vicinity of the resonant frequencies of the site.     

多级判别在地震综合预报中的应用

本文阐述了多级判别在地震综合预报中应用的必要性,给出该数学方法的推导过程,并且以云南多震区——滇西南地震区为例进行实际判别计算,在所计算的工6个震例中其拟合预报准确率在80％以上;对1987年11月25日讯沧外.2级地震实际预报取得较好的效果。     

地球主磁场的能量密度谱及其长期变化

根据BJ地磁场模型和第8代国际地磁参考场(IGRF)模型，计算并分折了1690～2000年期间地球表面主磁场和分量的能量密度谱及其长期变化。结果表明1690～2000年期间主磁场的能量密度谱一直在减小，其主要原因是由于偶板子磁场的衰减产生的，而非偶板子磁场的能量密度谱在1690～1780年期间减小，1780～1890年增大，1890年以后快速增大。在地磁场总能谱的变化中，Z分量的贡献起主要作用。能量密度随谐波阶数的变化在半对数坐标中近似线性，非偶板子场的等效磁源深度位于核幔边界附近，n＝1，2谐波项的等效磁源位于地球内核边缘，其位置随时间变化。1780和1890年前后是地磁场变化的转折时期。能量密度谱的长期变化存在大约60a的周期规律。     

中国地震预警延迟时间算法及其对预警盲区的影响研究

通过分析预警系统的预警步骤来探讨影响获得预警时间的因素,并与瑞士地震台网预警延迟各步骤进行对比,得出中国地震预警系统仪器延迟时间为7.6s。提出地震波到台站所需时间的算法,较震中假设在台站中间的传统算法更为准确,在此算法下采用双台法和四台法计算接收地震波所需时间,得到中国地震预警延迟时间。讨论双台法和四台法在不同震源深度和台站密度下对预警盲区大小的影响,在台间距小于20km时,2种方法预警盲区差异不大。通过理论计算得出,在台站到达一定密度时,预警系统仪器延迟时间缩短比台站加密对预警盲区的缩小更有效。     

塔里木盆地前寒武地层岩石磁化率

在塔里木盆地前寒武结晶基底研究过程中,为了准确建立地层地磁模型,对库鲁克塔格地区岩浆岩、柯坪地区沉积岩、塔什库尔干地区变质岩地层进行系统取样及岩石薄片鉴定和准确命名,并测量岩石密度、磁化率.研究发现:①库鲁克塔格地区:基性、超基性岩蛇纹石化析出磁铁矿,磁化率剧烈变化,而中、酸性侵入岩磁化率随黑云母含量增加而增大;②柯坪...