The relative influence of climate and housing development on current and projected future fire patterns and structure loss across three California landscapes

Climate and land use patterns are expected to change dramatically in the coming century, raising concern about their effects on wildfire patterns and subsequent impacts to human communities. The relative influence of climate versus land use on fires and their impacts, however, remains unclear, particularly given the substantial geographical variability in fire-prone places like California. We developed a modeling framework to compare the importance of climatic and human variables for explaining fire patterns and structure loss for three diverse California landscapes, then projected future large fire and structure loss probability under two different climate (hot-dry or warm-wet) and two different land use (rural or urban residential growth) scenarios. The relative importance of climate and housing pattern varied across regions and according to fire size or whether the model was for large fires or structure loss. The differing strengths of these relationships, in addition to differences in the nature and magnitude of projected climate or land use change, dictated the extent to which large fires or structure loss were projected to change in the future. Despite this variability, housing and human infrastructure were consistently more responsible for explaining fire ignitions and structure loss probability, whereas climate, topography, and fuel variables were more important for explaining large fire patterns. For all study areas, most structure loss occurred in areas with low housing density (from 0.08 to 2.01 units/ha), and expansion of rural residential land use increased structure loss probability in the future. Regardless of future climate scenario, large fire probability was only projected to increase in the northern and interior parts of the state, whereas climate change had no projected impact on fire probability in southern California. Given the variation in fire-climate relationships and land use effects, policy and management decision-making should be customized for specific geographical regions.     

长汀水土流失区生长季马尾松树干液流密度特征

应用热扩散探针测定福建长汀水土流失区生长季马尾松东南西北4个方位的树干液流密度,并比较不同人工治理措施下马尾松树干液流密度的特征,利用自动气象站同步记录环境因子变化,以探讨先锋树种的水分生理生态特征及其对环境变化的响应.研究表明,马尾松4个方位的树干液流密度日变化均呈现单峰型变化规律;南向树干液流密度峰值最高,日变化幅度也最大;东、西、南、北4个方位的液流密度差异显著(P＜0.01),但各方位液流间呈现显著的线性关系;树干4个方位液流的启动时间与太阳辐射之间存在约3个小时的时滞;4个方位液流与环境因子相关性均极显著(P＜0.01),其中与液流密度相关性最强的是空气温度,其次为土壤温度和太阳辐射,4个方位液流受环境因子的影响程度存在差异;不同治理措施下的马尾松液流密度日变化规律相似,但数值差异显著(P＜0.01),经过人工施肥的样地马尾松树干液流密度峰值明显高于未施肥的样地.     

基于Hv方法的三轴液压振动系统频响函数估计的研究

三轴液压振动系统是实验室内模拟振动环境的主要设备,其主要功能是精确地复现给定的功率谱和时间历程。振动控制技术是实现这一目标的关键技术,它以频响函数估计为基础。频响函数估计的精度影响控制过程的快速性和稳定性。本文对几种典型的频响函数估计方法进行了分析,针对传统方法精度低且受到矩阵病态条件约束等缺点,应用特征分析与摄动理论构造了一种多入多出的Hv方法,并且应用三轴液压振动系统的实测数据对其进行了检验。结果表明该方法是适用的。     

A new spatial coherence model and analytical coefficients for multi-support response spectrum combination

In this paper, a new spatial coherence model of seismic ground motions is proposed by a fi tting procedure. The analytical expressions of modal combination (correlation) coeffi cients of structural response are developed for multi-support seismic excitations. The coeffi cients from both the numerical integration and analytical solutions are compared to verify the accuracy of the solutions. It is shown that the analytical expressions of numerical modal combination coeffi cients are of high accuracy. The results of random responses of an example bridge show that the analytical modal combination coeff icients developed in this paper are accurate enough to meet the requirements needed in practice. In addition, the computational effi ciency of the analytical solutions of the modal combination coeff icients is demonstrated by the response computation of the example bridge. It is found that the time required for the structural response analysis by using the analytical modal combination coeffi cients is less than 1/20 of that using numerical integral methods.     

Joint probability density function of the stochastic responses of nonlinear structures

The joint probability density fimction （PDF） of different structural responses is a very important topic in the stochastic response analysis of nonlinear structures. In this paper, the probability density evolution method, which is successfully developed to capture the instantaneous PDF of an arbitrary single response of interest, is extended to evaluate the joint PDF of any two responses. A two-dimensional partial differential equation in terms of the joint PDF is established. The strategy of selecting representative points via the number theoretical method and sieved by a hyper-ellipsoid is outlined. A two-dimensional difference scheme is developed. The free vibration of an SDOF system is examined to verify the proposed method, and a flame structure exhibiting hysteresis subjected to stochastic ground motion is investigated. It is pointed out that the correlation of different responses results from the fact that randomness of different responses comes from the same set of basic random parameters involved. In other words, the essence of the probabilistic correlation is a physical correlation.     

Application of probabilistic neural network to design breakwater armor blocks

This study presents a probabilistic neural network (PNN) technique for predicting the stability number of armor blocks of breakwaters. The PNN is prepared using the experimental data of Van der Meer. The predicted stability numbers of the PNN are compared with those of previous studies, i.e. by an empirical formula and a previous neural network model. The agreement index between the measured and predicted stability numbers by PNN are better than those by the previous studies. The PNN offers a way to interpret the network's structure in the form of a probability density function and it is easy to implement. Therefore, it can be an effective tool for designers of rubble mound breakwaters.     

Research on formation density MWD instrument in engineering geological exploration

A high efficiency method is very important in geological survey for a new city in China. Geophysical parameters are Measured While Drilling(MWD), and these parameters are processed and explained on the ground, so the method can replace conventional engineering geological exploration for drilling rock sample. According petroleum engineering MWD, using the different characters of different rock absorbs γ radial, with the method of storing data in hole and explaining data on the ground, engineering geological exploration formation density MWD is researched. The MWD works stabilized, and the performance is good with precise data.     

Crystal Structure and Geometry-Optimization Study of N-(2-hydroxy-1-naphthaldene)-4-aminoantipyrme

N-(2-hydroxy-1-naphthaldene)-4-aminoantipyrine has been synthesized. The structure is determined by X-ray diffraction method and elemental analysis. The crystal system belongs to orthorhombic space group P(2)2(1)2(1). The geometry has been ob-tained from the density functional theory (DFT) method and the B3LYP method employing the 6-31G* basis sets. The calculated results propose that the latter is close to the experimental data. The structural parameters from the theory are close to those of the crystal and the calculated total energy of coordination is -31677.172 eV. The energy of HOMO and LUMO and the energy gap are 5.179 eV, -1.603 eV and 3.577 eV, respectively.     

黑河上游山地土壤容重分布特征及影响因素

土壤容重不仅可用作计算土壤持水力和导水性,也是估算土壤养分和碳储量的重要变量。野外测定土壤容重一般费时费力,特别是在地形复杂的山区,因此山地土壤容重在国内外大多数清查数据库中缺失。本文以黑河上游山地为例,基于野外调查的124个土壤剖面,研究了山地土壤容重的空间分布特征及影响因素。结果表明:黑河上游山地0~10 cm和0~60 cm土壤容重分别为0.91±0.02 g·cm^-3 和1.04±0.01 g·cm^-3;不同植被类型下,高山寒漠容重最大,山地森林最小。随着土壤深度的增加,容重呈幂函数递增;随着土壤有机质含量的增加,容重呈指数递减。区域上,黑河上游从西北到东南,容重呈递减趋势,从高海拔到低海拔,容重呈先减小后增大趋势。主成分分析(PCA)和一般线性模型(GLM)表明,与土壤容重相关的环境因子中,海拔是影响土壤表层容重的第一主成分,土壤有机质含量是第二主成分,黏粒含量和大于2.0 mm砾石含量分别为第三、四主成分。第一、二、三、四主成分分别解释土壤容重空间变异的24.00%、29.40%、0.01%、6.20%。     

Entrepreneurial causation and effectuation logics in a regional context: Assessing the importance of population density

ABSTRACT

The purpose of the article is to assess whether an entrepreneurial causation or effectuation logic is a function of geographical location in densely populated economic regions versus sparsely populated economic regions. A causation logic implies that the entrepreneur primarily focuses on a predefined goal and further aims to identify the means to reach that goal. By contrast, an effectuation logic implies that the entrepreneur to a larger extent focuses on the means at hand, which she or he aims at materialising into one or more goals that are not necessarily predefined. The empirical data for the study are based on an investigation and evaluation of Norwegian entrepreneurs in business incubation that are located in many different economic regions of the country. Multilevel regression analyses showed that geographical location in sparsely populated economic regions is associated with a causation logic, whereas a location in densely populated economic regions is associated with an effectuation logic. An implication of the article is that entrepreneurial stakeholders, such as policymakers, incubator managers, public and private partners, and entrepreneurs themselves should be aware of differences in causation and effectuation logics between entrepreneurs located in densely versus sparsely populated economic regions.