基于空间自回归和空间聚类的渔情预报模型

作者针对远洋渔场渔情预报精度偏低的问题,提出一种基于空间自回归和空间聚类的渔情预报模型。该模型利用空间自回归对收集到的渔业历史数据进行预处理,然后通过空间聚类将所有数据样本根据地理位置分划成若干个区域,最后研究每个区域中环境数据与渔获数据之间的数学关系,各自建立栖息地适宜性指数模型(Habitat Suitability Index,HSI),并以印度洋大眼金枪鱼(Thunnus obesus)为例进行验证。结果表明,本模型的均方差为0.1742,与传统线性回归方法的均方差0.2363相比,能更好地表达海洋环境数据与渔获量之间的关系,预测精度显著提高。     

基于深度学习的赤潮发生预报方法研究

赤潮作为海洋灾害,对海洋渔业、生态、经济,以及人类生产、生活造成了严重影响。一直以来,赤潮受到研究者的广泛关注,但由于它的形成机制比较复杂,使得赤潮预报极具挑战性。针对赤潮预报的研究问题,本文收集了厦门海域赤潮发生前后的海洋监测数据,结合皮尔逊相关系数、散布矩阵、复相关系数方法,分析多环境因子与赤潮发生多要素的关联情况,重点采用基于深度学习的LSTM与CNN融合方法,挖掘环境因子的时序依赖,发现序列数据的局部特征,对赤潮发生进行预报。在厦门一号和厦门二号数据集中,本方法在预报未来12 h内的赤潮情况时,RMSE、MAE误差分别达到0.521 8、0.504 3。通过协同对比模型进一步确定赤潮发生的预报概率,在两个数据集上的最终预报准确率分别为67.58%和63.49%。本研究为赤潮的分析预报提供了探索经验,证明了将深度学习方法应用于赤潮预报的可行性。     

威海市褚岛北部海域CDOM和COD分布特征遥感分析

根据2017年7月和9月在山东威海褚岛北部海域现场测量的COD_(Mn)(Chemical oxygen demand)值和水体表观光学量,结合COMS(Communication,OceanMeteorological Satellite)上搭载的传感器GOCI(Geostationary Ocean Color Imager)所提供的有色可溶性有机物(Chromophoric dissolved organic matter,CDOM)产品,利用星地同步观测数据对现有的基于遥感反射比反演CDOM的模式进行验证,确定适合该海域的CDOM浓度遥感反演模式;通过对测试海域化学需氧量与遥感反演的水体CDOM浓度相关性分析,建立利用CDOM反演COD_(Mn)的遥感模式,并将该模式应用于测试海域LANDSAT 8/OLI(Operational Land Imager)遥感图像上,获取该海域COD_(Mn)浓度专题图,基于这些专题图分析了测试海域COD_(Mn)时空分布特征。结果表明:(1)基于GOCI产品的CDOM浓度值随时间和站点动态变化大,离岸越近数值越高,同一地点水体前后相差近1 h的数值变化也较大;(2)基于LANDSAT 8/OLI遥感数据反演的COD_(Mn)浓度时间动态变化大,总体来看褚岛附近水体的COD_(Mn)含量相对较低,褚岛以北海域水体COD_(Mn)含量有所增加,褚岛西侧水体的COD_(Mn)含量较东侧水体COD_(Mn)含量来说整体偏高。     

The restoration of fishing services and the conveyance of risk information in the Southern California Bight

Southern California's marine areas are heavily contaminated with dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) and polychlorinated-biphenyls (PCBs), and fish consumption advisories (FCAs) have been issued throughout the region. Between 2002 and 2003, the Montrose Angler Survey, a large-scale survey of subsistence anglers, was developed and implemented on site in Orange and Los Angeles counties. This survey was intended to assist natural resource trustees in the development of restoration programs that will address injuries to natural resources and restore lost economic services for anglers, but the data were never fully analyzed. The trustees have shown a clear preference for ecological restoration programs that may take years to improve fishing services. In contrast, this analysis, which includes a random-parameter fishing site choice model, demonstrates that simple, inexpensive programs such as better signage to warn of FCAs and transportation to clean sites have the potential to yield substantial benefits quickly. This paper also focuses on how different ethnic minority groups are affected by FCAs, and determines how best to communicate risk information and change fishing behavior through outreach programs.     

利用卫星云图资料制作热带气旋预报路径的一种算法

根据台风生成后在云场中移动的环境条件,引入一个环境作用于台风中心的热力梯度力方向,用该热力梯度力方向与当前台风的移动方向相结合,研究台风移动过程的变化规律,寻找一种简易可行的台风路径预报方法．经过多年实践,本文揭示出台风中心未来沿着当前移动方向与环境作用于台风中心的热力方向合成移动的基本规律：当前台风中心移向与前方晴空区中轴线相交时,台风沿着当前移向前进到与阻挡轴线相交点相距4个纬距的位置时便发生偏转,逐渐与阻挡轴线走向趋于一致;若当前台风中心距相交点的距离小于或等于4个纬距时,则从当前位置发生偏转．文中利用以上规律研制出台风移向变化方程和移动轨迹方程．     

基于雷达反射率因子和雷电定位数据的深度学习雷电预报模型

利用卷积神经网络和门控循环单元（Gated recurrent units ）神经网络,基于雷达反射率因子和雷电定位数据开展了雷电预报研究。首先构建了引用注意力机制的基于卷积神经网络和门控循环单元神经网络的深度学习模型（Attention ConvGRU）;然后将雷达反射率因子数据和对应时间段（6 min）的雷电定位数据处理成图像数据后输入深度学习模型,训练出可预报雷电的模型,包括3种模型：单雷电数据模型、单雷达数据模型和雷电〖CD*2〗雷达双数据模型;最后开展了预报试验和定量评估。综合评估表明,本文建立的雷电预报模型综合预报准确率达到96.74%,虚警率35.83%,关键成功指数（Critical Success Index, CSI）为0.2072。个例分析表明,预报模型对于具有明显移动趋势的雷暴过程（A类雷暴）的预报效果优于不具有明显移动趋势的雷暴过程（B类雷暴）,且随着B类雷暴强度减弱模型预报能力逐渐减弱。     

Deriving Changjiang coastal zone wind from C-band SAR and its application to salinity simulation

Wind plays an important role in hydrodynamic processes such as the expansion of Changjiang （Yangtze） River Diluted Water （CDW）, and shelf circulation in the Changjiang estuary. Thus, it is essential to include wind in the numerical simulation of these phenomena. Synthetic aperture radar （SAR） with high resolution and wide spatial coverage is valuable for measuring spatially inhomogeneous ocean surface wind fields. We have collected 87 ERS-2 SAR images with wind-induced streaks that cover the Cbangjiang coastal area, to verify and improve the validity of wind direction retrieval using the 2D fast Fourier transform method. We then used these wind directions as inputs to derive SAR wind speeds using the C-band model. To demonstrate the applicability of the algorithms, we validated the SAR-retrieved wind fields using QuikSCAT measurements and the atmospheric Weather Research Forecasting model. In general, we found good agreement between the datasets, indicating the reliability and applicability of SAR- retrieved algorithms under different atmospheric conditions. We investigated the main error sources of this process, and conducted sensitivity analyses to estimate the wind speed errors caused by the effect of speckle, uncertainties in wind direction, and inaccuracies in the normalized radar cross section. Finally, we used the SAR-retrieved wind fields to simulate the salinity distribution off the Changjiang estuary. The findings of this study will be valuable for wind resource assessment and the development of future numerical ocean models based on SAR images.     

Impacts of New Implementing Strategies for Surface and Model Physics Perturbations in TREPS on Forecasts of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

To improve the ensemble prediction system of the tropical regional atmosphere model for the South China Sea(TREPS) in predicting landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs), the impacts of three new implementing strategies for surface and model physics perturbations in TREPS were evaluated for 19 TCs making landfall in China during 2014–16. For sea surface temperature(SST) perturbations, spatially uncorrelated random perturbations were replaced with spatially correlated ones. The multiplier f, which is u...     

基础地理信息动态更新技术体系初探

近年来,我国测绘部门完成了国家级基础地理信息数据库的"初始建库",基础测绘工作重点已转向持续更新和灵性服务。未来的基础地理信息"应需适时更新"将体现更新内容灵性化、更新周期适时化、更新方式多元化等特点,其主要业务模式包括变化监测、变化测定、主数据库更新和产品更新及服务四大部分。为了有效开展"应需适时更新",应构建包括动态监测与数据预处理、变化信息采集与处理、数据库与产品更新、更新信息网络化服务四大主体部分的动态更新技术体系。该体系是信息化测绘技术体系的一个重要组成部分,应加强对其关键技术的研发,开展技术装备成套化和业务体系建设。     

Effect of connecting rain barrels on the storage size reduction

In this article, the possibility of sharing rain barrels and the potential benefit of reducing storage size through physical and non‐physical connections of rain barrels in a community are investigated. Using the concepts of homogeneous/heterogeneous users in rainwater harvesting systems (RWHS), two simple cases of a community composed of four prospective users are examined. The first is performed with the users who have the same mean and variance in water demands (homogeneous users), and the second is with the users with different means and variances (heterogeneous users). To take account for the rainfall characteristics in different places, historical records from six cities in the USA are used for storage–reliability–yield analysis. The result indicates that required total storage can be reduced by connecting multiple rain barrels. In addition, a significant difference is found between homogeneous and heterogeneous user groups. Homogeneous users do not achieve a substantial benefit from connecting their rain barrels; these users may even be disadvantaged by sharing. In contrast, heterogeneous users receive benefit by reducing the total required storage. Most benefit is expected between users with maximum difference in mean water demands. The reduction in storage size was as considerable as 37% in this study. The quantity of storage reduction depends on locations and target reliabilities. Knowledge of the benefits and limitations of rain barrel connections can improve RWHS performance through ability to customize a network plan for individual users. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.