Trip making, induced travel demand, and accessibility

Traditional transportation planning practice rests on the premise that the demand for transportation is derived. On the other hand, economic theory advances that enhancement to the transportation system leads to lower travel cost and hence to induced demand. Such an argument lends support to the view that the rate at which trips are generated is linked to the ease of making trips to potential destinations. Rather conflicting evidence has so far come out of aggregate trip generation modeling applications. This paper revisits this issue with proper characterization of integral accessibility. Poisson regression models of automobile trip generation by trip purpose are estimated on travel survey data in Minneapolis–St. Paul, MN. Alternative measures of accessibility are tested for statistical significance. Conclusions are drawn on the role of accessibility in trip making and on the comparison of integral accessibility measures.The first author gratefully acknowledges the financial support of NSF grant SBR- 9308394. We are particularly indebted to Rick Gelbmann, Robert Paddock, and Mark Philippi at the Metropolitan Council, Minneapolis–St. Paul, and William Barrett at the Office of Transportation Data Analysis, Minnesota Department of Transportation for their availability to answer all our data-related questions.     

郑州市地下水资源及解决供需矛盾对策

郑州市是河南省水资源最贫乏地区之一，人均水资源占有量不足全省平均数的一半，水成了制约经济发展的重要因素。本文通过对郑州市地下水资源的开发利用现状调查，及对国民经济建设保证程度分析，针对地下水和地表水资源的分布状况，结合地下水的开发利用现状及存在问题，确定解决全市供需矛盾的主要对策为：调整产业结构，加强科学管理，合理开发利用地下水，区内调剂和外流域调水等。     

基于时间序列法的北京市需水量预报(英文)

It is essential to establish the water resources exploitation and utilization planning,which is mainly based on recognizing and forecasting the water consumed structure rationally and scientifically.During the past 30 years(1980-2009),mean annual precipitation and total water resource of Beijing have decreased by 6.89% and 31.37% compared with those perennial values,respectively,while total water consumption during the same period reached pinnacle historically.Accordingly,it is of great significance for the harmony between socio-economic development and environmental development.Based on analyzing total water consumption,agricultural,industrial,domestic and environmental water consumption,and evolution of water consumed structure,further driving forces of evolution of total water consumption and water consumed structure are revealed systematically.Prediction and discussion are achieved for evolution of total water consumption,water consumed structure,and supply-demand situation of water resource in the near future of Beijing using Time Series Forecasting Method.The purpose of the endeavor of this paper is to provide scientific basis for the harmonious development between socio-economy and water resources,for the establishment of rational strategic planning of water resources,and for the social sustainable development of Beijing with scientific bases.     

珠江三角洲地区城中村土地供求的动态均衡分析

土地问题是我国城中村研究的核心问题。在对珠江三角洲地区城中村进行实地调研的基础上,就城中村主体的行为特征、城中村土地供应和需求的基本特征进行了总结。以理论推导与现实印证相结合的方法,基于经济学中的供求理论,对城中村土地供求变化进行了动态均衡分析。从村庄"内部人"的视角,考察在各种内外部因素变动(征地与留用地,城中村改造,村民城市化转型)的情况下,城中村主体如何实现土地的供应和需求均衡。总体上,城中村土地变化表现为土地需求被动地追随(因征地而发生的)供应减少而下降,以实现供求均衡。具体而言,在城中村形成阶段,供求均衡借助乡村工业化,即农业用地转为工业用地而实现;在城中村存续阶段,存在土地供求的逐渐失衡;在城中村改造阶段,供求均衡最终必须通过城市化,即村民转为市民而实现。     

需水量预测方法研究

需水量预测的方法有很多种,但每种方法的预测结果都具有误差。在分析了回归分析法以及灰色系统GM（1,1）法的优缺点及其适用情况后,针对其缺点提出了相应的权重方法,对两种方法的预测结果进行了加权处理,并以郑州市为例进行了实例分析,分析结果表明,处理后的结果减小了预测的误差。     

Limiting hydrochemical factors for sustainability of water resources: The Cisjordanian experience

In Cisjordan, surface- and groundwater flow are either towards the Jordan Valley-Dead Sea-Arava Valley (the Rift) or the Mediterranean Sea. Due to upstream exploitation by riparians to the Jordan River, the historical annual flow, which fluctuated between 250 and 1100 Mm³, has declined to a mere 100-200 Mm³. The remaining flow south of Lake Kinneret is highly polluted and heavily loaded with salts. Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee) is one of the major water resources in the area. Annually, between 200 and 700 Mm³ reach the Lake as surface and groundwater flow. The relatively high salinity of the Lake is caused by thermomineral water discharging from springs and seepages located onshore and on the bottom of the Lake. The main factors causing deterioration of the groundwater quality in the Rift are of geogenic character. These are different types of brines, whose outflow and penetration into freshwater aquifers was triggered by overpumpage. Contemporary encroachment of seawater caused by intensive water exploitation in the Coastal Plain is manageable and reversible. However, due to lack of hydrogeological evidence, no such statement can be made about the circulation of seawater beneath the Coastal Plain and into the deep-seated Yarkon-Taninim aquifer or the upflow of brines in the Rift.The flow regimes of the different brine bodies could not be elucidated. Whether each such brine-body flows by its particular hydrological regime or whether the movement of the different bodies is intradependent or interdependent with the regional movement of fresh groundwater, remain open questions. Therefore, sustainable development of groundwater resources is clearly dependent on the elucidation of the relationship between changes in the pressure of the brine with depth and its relationship to the overlying freshwater.The average total annual recharge of all water sources in Cisjordan is 1820 Mm³, which means that the total production of water must be managed within the limits of this annual volume. During drought years, total groundwater extraction exceeds the safe yield, causing drastic lowering of water levels and upflow of saline waters from greater depths.Because of the structural complexity of aquifers and hydrochemical variability of the numerous groundwater bodies, new hydrochemical methods have been developed for the identification of groundwater bodies and for the elucidation of their origins. These methods combine macrochemical, microchemical, and isotopic evidences. By combining distribution patterns of rare earths, yttrium and stable isotopes, a complete picture of catchment lithology and the altitude and latitude of precipitation could be obtained.The area west of the Jordan River is characterized by the occurrence of transboundary surface- and groundwater basins in which fresh and saline water and brines flow across political borders between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. It is very difficult to assess separately the annual safe yield of water resources for each of the two national entities. Neither country may dispose independently of its waters and is usually at the mercy of the other riparian. There is as yet no general multilateral international treaty in force allocating the water resources of international watercourses. At present there are two rules for the management of the waters of an international drainage basin—the rule of Equitable Distribution, and the obligation Not to Cause Significant Harm. The rules of equitable distribution have tended to focus on the issue of quantities of water rather than on quality of water, which is really relevant to the issue of equitable distribution. Future negotiations on the uses of the basin will need to deal with issues of characteristic salinities and geochemical features and on their impact on equitable sharing of water resources.     

中国重要金属矿产资源现状、供需、进出口数据集

金属矿产是经济社会发展的物质基础。本数据集采集了16种对国民经济发展有重要影响的大宗紧缺矿产（铁、锰、铜、铝、金、铅、锌、镍、铬）、优势矿产（钨、钼、锡、锑）及战略新兴矿产（锂、钴、钛）2006—2017年的世界及中国资源储量、原矿产量、消费量、贸易量及贸易金额等数据。数据集为Excel表格型数据,包含6个sheet表（世界资源量、中国查明资源储量、中国基础储量、中国原矿产量、中国原矿消费量、中国进出口量）,旨在分析研究我国在工业化进程中后期阶段所需重要金属矿产的资源现状和供需趋势。数据集显示：①我国大宗紧缺矿产如铁、锰、铜、金等查明资源储量虽稳步增长,但开采消耗量大,使得基础储量增速缓慢;未来需求总量仍将维持高位,国内保障程度不足,进口量持续攀升。优势矿产资源钨、锑储采比低,后备资源接替不足,优势程度下降;②战略新兴矿产锂、钴、钛资源量、基础储量增长缓慢或呈下降态势,国内资源品质较差,难利用资源多;产量、消费量近十年快速增长,且未来将持续高增长,国内资源储量增长缓慢,供需矛盾凸显。该数据集对已有金属矿产供需数据的收集和总结,为今后金属矿产勘查及战略部署提供参考。     

A Research Synthesis and Theoretical Model of Relationships Between Factors Influencing Outdoor Domestic Water Consumption

Outdoor domestic water use is often targeted by demand management strategies. However, despite a rich empirical evidence base coming from primary studies, it is still unclear how factors that influence this type of demand interact and which are the most suitable to be addressed by water conservation programs. Based on 423 scientific contributions, we develop a research synthesis combining a variety of techniques to create a theoretical model of the relationships among factors most consistently observed in the literature. The findings uncover a great degree of complexity in terms of interactions between spatial-structural, social-structural, and cultural and psychological factors at different scales. For researchers, the methodology and the outcomes can be useful to better frame existing and future research within the literature on the topic. In practice, the adaptation of the theoretical model to local specificities can facilitate the design of more efficient and integrated demand management strategies.     

环城游憩汀(ReLAM):一种值得探询的新型空间要素

环城游憩带(ReBAM)发展到高级阶段将出现空间聚散形态。城市居民游憩需求的规模扩张和结构变动要求ReBAM在供给面形成响应。在不少城市,ReBAM已具备一定的整体开发水平,但内部节点(旅游地)发展不均。在此情况下,优化需求-供给的结构性匹配成为ReBAM发展的内在趋势。环城游憩汀(ReLAM)是指依据游憩需求导向,向特定时空内其他游憩节点引送游憩流的现实或潜在功能较强的优势节点。ReLAM以改善ReBAM节点关联为导引,扩展游憩时空行为,促进节点整合互惠,提升居民游憩品质和ReBAM利用水平。ReLAM形成的根本原因是游憩需求增强和时空条件滞后之间的矛盾,分为主观因素驱动、客观因素驱动和混合驱动3种基本类型。游憩需求状态、垂引节点吸引力、时空结构对ReLAM的形成及其功能具有关键影响,游憩市场规模发挥调节作用。ReLAM是兼具集聚和辐射功能的新型空间要素,对非均衡发展的游憩区域具有优先指导价值。     

基于土地集约利用的长株潭城市群建设用地供需仿真模拟

土地集约利用反映了土地利用的综合状态,是协调土地供需平衡的重要指标。运用系统动力学（SD）构建城市建设用地供需反馈关系回路以及指标变量函数,在此基础上,建立长株潭城市群建设用地供需系统模型,仿真模拟低土地集约利用度、中等土地集约利用度、高土地集约利用度三种不同状态条件下,2016-2030年区域的建设用地、工业用地和居住用地供需变化趋势。结果表明：① 研究区用地规模仍处于扩张状态,城市建设用地数量增长速度总体较快。但三种发展状态下用地增长规模、速度存有差异;② 在低集约度模式下,建设用地规模及供地数量大,易造成土地资源的浪费;高集约度模式下,建设用地供给紧缩,用地规模增长缓慢,总规模偏小,不利于城镇化的良性发展;中等集约度模式则在用地规模和供给量上均与社会经济发展相适应,能体现现代城市发展理念;③ 工业用地占建设用地比例保持在15%~21%之间,其中低集约度模式下比例逐年上升,中等和高集约度模式下呈缓慢下降并趋于稳定之势;居住用地占建设用地的比例维持在27%~35%之间,其中低集约度和中等集约度模式用地占比呈下降趋势,高集约度模式比例总体维持在较高水平。研究通过对三种发展模式的设定,确定了不同指标在三种模式下的变化趋势,可为土地供需决策优化、城市建设规划及土地供给侧结构性改革提供科学参考。