长江三峡工程奉节库岸边坡地下水渗流场模拟分析

长江三峡工程正常蓄水位为175m，在蓄水过程中随着库水位的抬升，必然会引起库岸边坡地下水渗流场的变化。运用3D－Modflow软件模拟了三峡工程的蓄水过程中奉节库段边坡岩土体内部地下水位的动态变化，为长江三峡工程奉节库区段移民迁建地质灾害预测与防治提供科学依据。     

确定边坡最危险滑动面的计算机模拟

边坡稳定性分析 ,关键是确定潜在的滑动面 ,目的是有利于工程安全。本文编制了二、三维计算机模拟程序 ,在二维模拟中提出了四种计算模式 ,三维模拟中考虑了空间、荷载、渗流效应 ,结合工程实例对边坡进行模拟并对土层抗剪强度参数进行了反演 ,模拟计算与实测结果吻合 ,模拟出的抗剪强度参数平均值与实测的抗剪强度参数标准值相当     

原油在储层介质中的加水裂解生气模拟实验

采用高温高压热模拟实验方法,开展了原油在砂岩和火成岩储层介质中的加水裂解生气模拟实验研究.结果表明,原油开始大量裂解的温度是400℃,随模拟温度增加,甲烷相对含量增大,乙烷以上重烃气尤其是丙烷相对含量减小.其中砂岩的油水混合物裂解生气主要发生在450～500℃之间,生气窗范围小,对应的烃气产率高,火成岩的油水混合物裂解生气主要发生在450～600℃之间,生气窗范围大,对应的烃气产率小.模拟烃气的组分碳同位素分馏显著,随模拟温度增加呈变重趋势.在裂解生气过程中,水解加氢和催化作用对烃气的组成、产率和碳同位素分布有重要影响。     

青藏公路路基变形分析

为研究青藏公路多年冻土人为上限在退化过程中对路基变形产生的影响过程和程度, 在唐古拉山以南选择了3处具有代表性的路面进行了为期2 a的路面变形观测. 资料表明, 在多年冻土人为上限退化过程中随着公路路基结构、冻土类型的不同, 路基变形从冻胀和融沉过程、冻胀量和融沉量、发生的时间都有很大的不同. 在高含冰量多年冻土区采用半挖半填结构产生的路基变形最为剧烈, 在含冰量相对少且采用较高路堤结构的地段路基变形过程相对平缓. 同时结合探地雷达的勘察结果对路基下的融化区、多年冻土区的内部结构进行了分析. 结果显示,多年冻土人为上限的下移、地下冰的融化会在多年冻土人为上限以上的地质体中导致较强烈的层间错动和扰动.     

地下水数值计算中断层处理的"切割-导通法"

从对断层导水性能的分析出发 ,提出了地下水数值计算中断层处理的“切割—导通法” ,既考虑断层侧向导水性 ,又考虑了其垂向导水性 ,更符合断层导水的实际情况 ,也易于描述较大断裂在走向上的导水性差异。     

Evaluation of the Reduction in Uncertainty Obtained by Conditioning a 3D Stochastic Channel to Multiwell Pressure Data

A stochastic channel embedded in a background facies is conditioned to data observed at wells. The background facies is a fixed rectangular box. The model parameters consist of geometric parameters that describe the shape, size, and location of the channel, and permeability and porosity in the channel and nonchannel facies. We extend methodology previously developed to condition a stochastic channel to well-test pressure data, and well observations of the channel thickness and the depth of the top of the channel. The main objective of this work is to characterize the reduction in uncertainty in channel model parameters and predicted reservoir performance that can be achieved by conditioning to well-test pressure data at one or more wells. Multiple conditional realizations of the geometric parameters and rock properties are generated to evaluate the uncertainty in model parameters. The ensemble of predictions of reservoir performance generated from the suite of realizations provides a Monte Carlo estimate of the uncertainty in future performance predictions. In addition, we provide some insight on how prior variances, data measurement errors, and sensitivity coefficients interact to determine the reduction in model parameters obtained by conditioning to pressure data and examine the value of active and observation well data in resolving model parameters.     

Combination of Dependent Realizations Within the Gradual Deformation Method

Gradual deformation is a parameterization method that reduces considerably the unknown parameter space of stochastic models. This method can be used in an iterative optimization procedure for constraining stochastic simulations to data that are complex, nonanalytical functions of the simulated variables. This method is based on the fact that linear combinations of multi-Gaussian random functions remain multi-Gaussian random functions. During the past few years, we developed the gradual deformation method by combining independent realizations. This paper investigates another alternative: the combination of dependent realizations. One of our motivations for combining dependent realizations was to improve the numerical stability of the gradual deformation method. Because of limitations both in the size of simulation grids and in the precision of simulation algorithms, numerical realizations of a stochastic model are never perfectly independent. It was shown that the accumulation of very small dependence between realizations might result in significant structural drift from the initial stochastic model. From the combination of random functions whose covariance and cross-covariance are proportional to each other, we derived a new formulation of the gradual deformation method that can explicitly take into account the numerical dependence between realizations. This new formulation allows us to reduce the structural deterioration during the iterative optimization. The problem of combining dependent realizations also arises when deforming conditional realizations of a stochastic model. As opposed to the combination of independent realizations, combining conditional realizations avoids the additional conditioning step during the optimization process. However, this procedure is limited to global deformations with fixed structural parameters.     

An experimental study of grain scale melt segregation mechanisms in two common crustal rock types

Creation of pathways for melt to migrate from its source is the necessary first step for transport of magma to the upper crust. To test the role of different dehydration‐melting reactions in the development of permeability during partial melting and deformation in the crust, we experimentally deformed two common crustal rock types. A muscovite‐biotite metapelite and a biotite gneiss were deformed at conditions below, at and above their fluid‐absent solidus. For the metapelite, temperatures ranged between 650 and 800 °C at P_c=700 MPa to investigate the muscovite‐dehydration melting reaction. For the biotite gneiss, temperatures ranged between 850 and 950 °C at P_c=1000 MPa to explore biotite dehydration‐melting under lower crustal conditions. Deformation for both sets of experiments was performed at the same strain rate (ε.) 1.37×10^?5 s^?1. In the presence of deformation, the positive ΔV and associated high dilational strain of the muscovite dehydration‐melting reaction produces an increase in melt pore pressure with partial melting of the metapelite. In contrast, the biotite dehydration‐melting reaction is not associated with a large dilational strain and during deformation and partial melting of the biotite gneiss melt pore pressure builds more gradually. Due to the different rates in pore pressure increase, melt‐enhanced deformation microstructures reflect the different dehydration melting reactions themselves. Permeability development in the two rocks differs because grain boundaries control melt distribution to a greater extent in the gneiss. Muscovite‐dehydration melting may develop melt pathways at low melt fractions due to a larger volume of melt, in comparison with biotite‐dehydration melting, generated at the solidus. This may be a viable physical mechanism in which rapid melt segregation from a metapelitic source rock can occur. Alternatively, the results from the gneiss experiments suggest continual draining of biotite‐derived magma from the lower crust with melt migration paths controlled by structural anisotropies in the protolith.     

Ground deformation of the southern sector of the Aeolian islands volcanic arc from geodetic data

The deformation pattern and the dynamics of the southern sector of the Aeolian archipelago are investigated. A study on the ground deformation, measured over the last 20 years in the trilateration geodetic network between the islands of Vulcano and Lipari, has been conducted. Analysis of the relative displacements and the uniform strain tensor parameters, as well as the comparison between areal dilatation and the vertical variations deduced by precise levelling, allow distinguishing different phases associated both with the regional dynamics and the local volcanic context of the area. These phases, however, appear to be closely interrelated. The analysis of the deformation pattern allows to constrain the predominance of a roughly E–W trending extension and a N–S contraction at a regional scale. This regime is consistent with right-lateral movements along a NW–SE striking fault system.     

Paleoliquefaction study of the Clarendon–Linden fault system, western New York State

The lack of earthquake-induced liquefaction features in Late Wisconsin and Holocene sediments in Genesee, Wyoming, and Allegany Counties suggests that the Clarendon–Linden fault system (CLF) did not generate large, moment magnitude, M≥6 earthquakes during the past 12,000 years. Given that it was the likely source of the 1929 M 4.9 Attica earthquake, however, the Clarenden–Linden fault system probably is capable of producing future M5 events. During this study, we reviewed newspaper accounts of the 1929 Attica earthquake, searched for earthquake-induced liquefaction features in sand and gravel pits and along tens of kilometers of river cutbanks, evaluated numerous soft-sediment deformation structures, compiled geotechnical data and performed liquefaction potential analysis of saturated sandy sediments. We found that the 1929 M 4.9 Attica earthquake probably did not induce liquefaction in its epicentral area and may have been generated by the western branch of the Clarendon–Linden fault system. Most soft-sediment deformation structures found during reconnaissance did not resemble earthquake-induced liquefaction features, and even the few that did could be attributed to non-seismic processes. Our analysis suggests that the magnitude threshold for liquefaction is between M 5.2 and 6, that a large (M≥6) earthquake would liquefy sediments at many sites in the area, and that a moderate earthquake (M 5–5.9) would liquefy sediments at some sites but perhaps not at enough sites to have been found during reconnaissance. We conclude that the Clarendon–Linden fault system could have produced small and moderate earthquakes, but probably not large events, during the Late Wisconsin and Holocene.