仙女山-九畹溪断裂带附近地区地震活动性与静态库仑应力变化研究

基于仙女山-九畹溪断裂带附近地区地质构造,讨论三峡水库蓄水前后该断裂带附近地区的地震活动特征,同时分析该区域2014-03 M4.5与M4.7地震间的触发关系及2次地震对后续小震的影响。结果表明：1）M4.7地震可能由M4.5地震与库水渗流产生的较大孔隙压力共同触发。2）M4.5与M4.7两次地震的应力扰动导致研究区内地震活动增加,后续地震中约66.9%的地震发生于库仑应力增强区。3）2次地震产生的静态库仑应力变化导致仙女山断裂带附近地区地震活动增加,后续地震活动水平将处于背景地震活动水平之上;九畹溪断裂带活动性相对较弱,略小于背景地震活动水平,且处于应力积累阶段。     

基于LSTM神经网络的青藏高原月降水量预测

青藏高原的降水量预测不仅为该地区水资源合理规划利用提供依据,同时对中国及周边国家气候变化研究有着重要的意义。论文利用1990—2016年青藏高原降水量数据,采用长短期记忆神经网络（LSTM）对青藏高原月降水量进行预测,主要包括：① 使用青藏高原86个测站1990—2013年的月降水资料,预测各个测站2014—2016年的月降水量,并与传统的RNN、NAR、SSA和ARIMA预测模型相比,平均决定系数R²分别提高了0.07、0.15、0.13和0.36,均方根误差（RMSE）和平均绝对误差（MAE）表现更低;② 分析了降水量预测精度的空间分布特征,将各模型的R²在青藏高原地区内插值,分析R²的空间分布特征,发现所有模型降雨稀少的干旱地区和降雨多的湿润地区R²较低,在气候稳定、降水规律性明显的地区R²较高,且LSTM模型R²≥0.6的空间范围远大于传统模型;③ 分析了不同预测长度对各模型预测精度的影响,发现所有模型会随着预测长度增加而预测精度降低,但在不同的预测长度下LSTM预测的RMSE值都低于其他模型。     

综合物探方法在焦家断裂南段金矿找矿中的应用

阐述了综合物探方法在焦家断裂南段金矿找矿中的应用,运用综合物探方法并结合搜集到测区的高精度重力、高精度磁测、常规电法、电磁法、地质、钻孔资料,对焦家断裂南段进行了综合研究,推断了焦家断裂南段的延伸趋势,探讨并总结了测区金成矿规律,圈定并筛选了3处金矿找矿靶区,表现出了较好的综合物探方法运用效果。     

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?????????????????????????????????????ó???????????????????????仯??????1???????????仯????????????????NNW-SSE??????????3~9 kPa a^-1???????????仯???????????????NEE-SWW??????????1~6 kPa a^-1?????????????????????????????????????￡?2???????????仯????????????????NNW????????????????,??????????????????????????????????仯???????????????NEE????????λ?????????????????????仯????????????????????????????????????????????п????????Щ???????????????????3?????????????????????????????????з???????????-???ε???????????????????6 kPa a^-1?????-?????ε???????????????????5 kPa a^-1???????κ??????媲????ε????????????????????3~4 kPa a^-1??     

沁水煤田赵庄矿区地质构造分析与研究

在野外踏勘和室内资料整理分析的基础上,对赵庄矿区物探工作所查明的断层、井下揭露的断层以及野外观测到的断层进行了断层倾角统计和分断距统计对比分析。对矿区范围内井上下的断层和野外实测节理滑动面的发育规律进行了总结。在此基础上,分析了赵庄矿区地质构造体系及其演化规律。     

BIBLIOGRAPHIE

Abstract

Time series modelling approaches are useful tools for simulating and forecasting hydrological variables and their change through time. Although linear time series models are common in hydrology, the nonlinear time series model, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, has rarely been used in hydrology and water resources engineering. The GARCH model considers the conditional variance remaining in the residuals of the linear time series models, such as an ARMA or an ARIMA model. In the present study, the advantages of a GARCH model against a linear ARIMA model are investigated using three classes of the GARCH approach, namely Power GARCH, Threshold GARCH and Exponential GARCH models. A daily streamflow time series of the Matapedia River, Quebec, Canada, is selected for this study. It is shown that the ARIMA (13,1,4) model is adequate for modelling streamflow time series of Matapedia River, but the Engle test shows the existence of heteroscedasticity in the residuals of the ARIMA model. Therefore, an ARIMA (13,1,4)-GARCH (3,1) error model is fitted to the data. The residuals of this model are examined for the existence of heteroscedasticity. The Engle test indicates that the GARCH model has considerably reduced the heteroscedasticity of the residuals. However, the Exponential GARCH model seems to completely remove the heteroscedasticity from the residuals. The multi-criteria evaluation for model performance also proves that the Exponential GARCH model is the best model among ARIMA and GARCH models. Therefore, the application of a GARCH model is strongly suggested for hydrological time series modelling as the conditional variance of the residuals of the linear models can be removed and the efficiency of the model will be improved.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Modarres, R. and Ouarda, T.B.M.J., 2013. Modelling heteroscedasticty of streamflow times series. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–11.     

Kepler's Equation and Newton's method

Power series solutions of Kepler's Equation associated with Lagrange, Levi-Civita and Stumpff may be obtained by Newton's method as an algorithm for formal power series.     

北秦岭火山岩岩石化学特征和成因

北秦岭存在A、B、C三类火山岩系列,对应着幔源型、壳幔混染型和壳幔混合型成因类型。火山岩系列和成因类型的系统变化,反映了多旋回壳幔物质迁移特证。     

黄骅坳陷地区正断层位移模式

黄骅坳陷属新生代张性盆地。在第三纪的ＮＷ—ＳＥ向区域拉张作用下，本区形成大量走向ＮＥ—ＳＷ的正断层。通过对该区正断层位移分布的研究，划分出Ｃ、Ｅ、Ｄ、Ｍ和Ｚ型五种断层位移模式，并进一步探讨了诸如断裂生长机制、岩石力学性质、相邻断层的相互作用、次级断裂的相互衔接这样几种控制因素对断层位移分布的影响。     

常德1631年大震事件的多场点群发式构造模型

根据对常德1631年地震事件的史料鉴别,尤其是江陵为典型七度震害这一事实,运用震声传播方向和地光物理场以及地震烈度衰减关系,拟合推断此地震事件的序列主要由安乡北6 3/4级地震、常德北太阳山7级地震、澧县6级地震、大庸6级地震和澧县—安乡6 1/2级地震组成,相应的地震地质背景是江汉—洞庭地区晚更新世以来的剩余形变呈四象限分布。若考虑地震-构造相关分布为“Z”字型,则该地震事件的主控构造——太阳山断裂带东断裂具左旋走滑的力学机制。根据区域地震—构造相关发展过程,常德大震事件可视为1668年郯城8 1/2级地震的前震序列组成部分。