Towards Formulation of a Space-borne System for Early Warning of Floods: Can Cost-Effectiveness Outweigh Prediction Uncertainty?

The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics, which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements. This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement, GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction. A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer.     

Verification of the motion fields over Southeast Asia by the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble forecast

The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region.     

鄂尔多斯盆地北部底河道砂岩型铀矿地质特征

鄂尔多斯盆地北部直罗组中的铀矿,是典型的产于河道中的砂岩铀矿,该矿床发育较好的卷状矿体。通过对该铀矿地质特征的研究,认识到发育卷状矿体的底河道砂岩型铀矿必须具备两大条件:其一是成矿砂体条件,即砂体要有较好的成层性、连通性和渗透性;其二是地层结构条件,即砂体必须存在较好的上、下隔水岩层。就砂体而言,河流相辫状沉积砂体是形成卷状矿体的主要砂体,并且以具有从辫状河向曲流河完整演化的辫状沉积砂体较好。砂体的上、下隔水岩层则有多种表现形式:下隔水层可由不透水的基岩或湖相沉积泥岩等构成;上隔水层由不透水的湖相泥岩、曲流沉积地层或岩浆岩等构成。在层间氧化作用过程上,存在纵横两个方向的氧化,即存在与河道方向一致的纵向氧化和与河道垂直的横向氧化,两种氧化作用成矿常叠加形成复杂的矿体类型;在矿化赋存的部位上,铀砂体通常发育在基底之上或不同建造之间;在古气候演变上,成矿作用发生在干旱气候条件下,或由潮湿向干旱的气候转变阶段。     

深部找铀及湘南-桂北地区深部找铀潜景分析

概述了国内外深部找矿的研究成果,指出深部找矿是当今发展的趋势。国内外重大矿产的成功发掘,其深度均在千米以上,铀矿化垂向分布深度可达4 km以上。综合介绍了国内外勘查深大矿床的特点和条件,认为岩石-构造条件是深部矿化定位的重要因素,复式岩体、成矿系统的垂向变化、构造地球物理-地球化学异常模型是深部找矿的关键依据。综述了中国南方湘南—桂北地区深部找铀的有利地质构造条件和潜力,成矿流体是该区铀矿化的根源,白垩—第三纪重大地质事件是该区深部铀成矿的重要前提,重大地质事件引发的NE-NNE,NW向深大断裂及断陷盆地是铀矿化赋存的重要场所和勘查靶区。在已知铀矿田、成矿带勘查范围基础上,在该区进行深部探索将会获得重大突破。探讨了湘南—桂北地区深部找铀的勘查思路和方法。     

深层地震勘探激发井深探讨

深层地震勘探野外资料采集的关键是在保证原始资料一定信噪比的基础上,同时兼顾分辨率,激发井深是决定资料品质的重要因素之一。通过对虚反射滤波作用分析,提出了充分利用虚反射能量设计最佳激发井深,增强下传地震波能量的采集方法。理论分析和试验资料表明,在高速层下4～7m的最佳激发岩性深度是深层勘探的理想井深。     

基于预测的边缘检测方法

提出了一种基于预测的、有一定自适应性的边缘检测方法。介绍了其原理和算法实现过程。通过计算两个相邻像素的灰度值的均值、均方差和梯度来预测下一个像素的灰度值，比较预测值和真实值来判断下一个像素是否是边界点。通过与现有同类算法的比较，证明了该算法的优越性。     

地震属性分析中水平切片的应用

利用地震数据体中含有的丰富地质信息,可以有效地进行储层预测。层拉平水平切片地层学解释方法是先将地震剖面目的层段做层拉平处理,然后对切片顺地层层面追踪,勾绘出各种地层现象,并以地层学的观点加以解释。该方法在吉林探区扶新南部地区的应用中,对于识别河道的展布趋势取得了较好的效果,而且发现了多期叠置的扇型沉积体。另外,还可指导反演数据体的解释,做到对岩性体从定性到定量的描述。     

黑龙江省中部森林沼泽区 超低密度深穿透地球化学调查采样介质的确定

通过对王水溶矿法与四酸溶矿法的对比,元素在泛滥平原A层、B层沉积物及水系沉积物中的分配,以及这3种介质圈定的异常对比等综合因素的研究,确定了泛滥平原A层沉积物是黑龙江省中部森林沼泽区开展超低密度深穿透地球化学调查的有效采样介质。     

赣南银坑山铀矿点地球化学特征及其找矿意义

银坑山铀矿点位于赣南九龙嶂火山盆地南东边缘,矿体呈脉状,水云母化、赤铁矿化明显。与围岩相比,矿石的Al₂O₃、SiO₂含量降低,Fe₂O₃(FeO)、MnO、CaO、S、Cl呈富集趋势,Mo、Ag、Th为主要伴生组分。从矿化蚀变组合特征看,银坑山矿点属岩浆热液型,且位于岩浆热液成矿系统的上部,深部具成矿前景。     

地面地震层析技术在金属矿勘查中的试验研究

由于金属矿区地质构造的复杂性和复杂的地表条件, 适合于探测层状介质的地震反射方法技术在金属矿勘查中的应用受到了限制。为提高地震记录的横向分辨率, 探测复杂的地质构造及隐伏岩体等, 需研究相应的地震方法技术, 地面地震层析技术在金属矿勘查中的试验研究就是为解决上述问题而开展的。本文就非线性地面地震层析技术的基本原理进行了阐述, 并就该方法在金属矿勘查中的试验效果进行了讨论。