Reliability assessment of serviceability performance of braced retaining walls using a neural network approach

In urban environments, one major concern with deep excavations in soft clay is the potentially large ground deformations in and around the excavation. Excessive movements can damage adjacent buildings and utilities. There are many uncertainties associated with the calculation of the ultimate or serviceability performance of a braced excavation system. These include the variabilities of the loadings, geotechnical soil properties, and engineering and geometrical properties of the wall. A risk‐based approach to serviceability performance failure is necessary to incorporate systematically the uncertainties associated with the various design parameters. This paper demonstrates the use of an integrated neural network–reliability method to assess the risk of serviceability failure through the calculation of the reliability index. By first performing a series of parametric studies using the finite element method and then approximating the non‐linear limit state surface (the boundary separating the safe and ‘failure’ domains) through a neural network model, the reliability index can be determined with the aid of a spreadsheet. Two illustrative examples are presented to show how the serviceability performance for braced excavation problems can be assessed using the reliability index. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mass heterogeneities and convection in the earth's mantle inferred from gravity and core-mantle boundary irregularities

Mass heterogeneities in the earth's mantle are retrieved from the gravity data and the topography of the core-mantle boundary as well as the topography of the earth's surface. A mantle circulation induced by the heterogeneities is modelled by solving the Stokes problem for incompressible Newtonian fluid. The derived models of mantle motions correlate well with the plate tectonics and point at a close relation between the surface tectonic activity and the processes in the vicinity of the core-mantle boundary.     

饱和软黏土动力学特性循环扭剪试验研究

以饱和软黏土的循环扭剪试验研究为基础,阐明不固结不排水条件下饱和软黏土的动力学特性。在循环扭剪和循环三轴两种不同试验应力状态下,通过研究不同围压和不同静、动应力组合下饱和软黏土的应力等效破坏关系和应变等效破坏关系,提出在循环荷载作用下饱和软黏土的循环破坏同样遵循Mises屈服准则,且在Mises屈服准则下,饱和软黏土的循环强度趋于不变量。循环破坏的过程可以等效为一种拟静力弹塑性循环蠕变,建立了饱和软黏土循环累积变形随静荷载、循环荷载以及循环破坏振次之间的关系式。上述结论分别从应力和变形两个方面阐述饱和软黏土的动力学特性,与试验应力状态和围压无关,可以推广到一般应力状态下。     

Pelagic-Benthic Coupling in the Nordic Seas: The Role of Episodic Events

Abstract. The consequences of the following episodic phenomena for the pelagic-benthic coupling in the Nordic Seas are illustrated: (1) Advection of water masses between fjords and shelf environments, (2) freshwater run-off and vertical stability, (3) dynamics of the marginal ice zone in the central and northern Barents Sea and the Polar Ocean, (4) drift patterns of sinking particles along the North Norwegian coast, (5) advection of zooplankton into subarctic fjords and the southern Barents Sea, zooplankton overwintering and composition, and (6) transport of organic particulate matter from the Barents Sea shelf. It is shown that physical processes in the north-eastern North Atlantic and Polar Ocean can be strongly variable on time scales of days to decades. They have a significant influence on the dynamics of pelagic-benthic coupling. The physical oceanography influences the vertical and horizontal particle flux not only directly (mixing, advection, up- and down-welling), but also indirectly through its impact on the biota (for example radiation, wind, ice cover, freshwater run-off and overwintering, advection and retention of zooplankton). Understanding pelagic-benthic coupling at high latitudes depends even more on a best possible understanding of the physical oceanography and the time scales involved than elsewhere.     

The Estimation of Secondary Production of the Marine Bivalve Spisula subtruncata (DA COSTA) in the Area of the Po River Delta

Abstract. The secondary production of Spisula subtruncata (somatic production) is calculated in the framework of a benthic monitoring study in a coastal area. The temporal trends of density, biomass and growth increments are examined in the three year-classes present. These are compared to certain physical and chemical parameters.     

Circulation in the Gulf of Aqaba (Red Sea) during winter—spring

This study is devoted to oceanographic features of the semi-enclosed Gulf of Aqaba, Red Sea. The data were recorded in winter—spring 1999 on the R/V Meteor cruise leg 44/2. Temperature and salinity profiles were measured at six positions (I—VI). The shipboard NarrowBand Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (NB ADCP) 150 kHz continuously recorded current profiles down to 350 m en route. The research revealed that the current near the Strait of Tiran front (position VI) represents a semidiurnal signal of an internal tide wave (∼12 h period; 0.2 ms⁻¹ amplitude) that might be generated by the barotropic tide at the sill of the Strait. A sequence of cyclonic and anticyclonic eddy pairs is found along the axis of the Gulf of Aqaba during winter-spring seasons. These sub-mesoscale signals are dominant above the main thermocline and might be caused by wind forcing and the narrowness of the Gulf; it might remain in other seasons with different dimensions in relation to the depth of thermocline. The total diameter of each pair was twice the baroclinic Rossby radius (R ≈ 10 km). A single anti-cyclonic eddy was observed in the upper 300 m in the northern tip of the Gulf with a diameter of about 5–8 km.     

Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change

Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect systematic patterns related to so far unexplained abiotic signals in the dynamics of zoobenthic species assemblages. The benthos data come from a cluster of five stations (Süderfahrt/ Millionenviertel) in Kiel Bay. Our investigations concentrated on the macrobenthic dynamics with a focus on the number of species m^− 2 (species richness). Using logarithms and the time series analysis approach of Box/Jenkins (ARIMA modelling, transfer function modelling) it was shown that species richness was strongly influenced by the winter NAO (adjusted for a linear time trend within the 1968-2000 period) and salinity (with a shift/lag of four years). Bootstrapping experiments (i.e. sampling from the error process) and analysis of prediction power (by means of the one- or more-years leaving-out method) showed that the parameter estimates behaved in a stable way, leading to a relatively robust model.