月表虹湾Hurst指数分析

月球遥感是在登月技术还不完善的情况下,利用遥感数据,通过各种分析来研究月球演化、内部结果和表面特征的方法。粗糙度是地表隆升、沉降、侵蚀和火山喷射物覆盖在行星表面留下的记录,因此对行星表面粗糙度的定量分析可以精确反映其地质演化过程。而Hurst指数则是粗糙度的精确反映。文中利用LOLA制作的DEM,以月球正面虹湾为例,选取水平方向的12条剖面和垂直方向的15条剖面对其各粗糙度参数进行计算,并结合月表成熟度对Hurst指数与底层年龄的相关性进行了分析,得出如下结论:(1)在1km的剖面长度上,虹湾地区均方根高程的平均值在3m左右;在0.2～3km研究尺度范围内,虹湾地区的坡度不超过2°,说明该地表起伏度小。(2)虹湾地区的Hurst指数跨度比较大,尤其在垂直方向(南北)上,在0.4到0.9之间,表明其构造样式丰富。(3)在0.2～3km研究尺度范围内,Hurst指数自北往南增大、自西往东增大,表示在虹湾地区粗糙度自西北向东南方向增大。(4)虹湾地区地质年龄为自西北向东南方向变小,与Hurst指数增大方向一致。(5)在月表年轻撞击坑地区月表成熟度与Hurst指数大致呈负相关关系。     

应用等性块段指数法划分新场井田的构造类型

介绍了等性块段指数法定量划分井田构造类型的基本原理。利用该法对筠连矿区新场井田的构造类型进行定量评价,得出该井田构造指数为1．98,属中等构造,证明原勘探所定构造类型基本正确。     

重力模型参数空间差异研究——以中国城市间铁路客流为例

重力模型是重要的空间相互作用模型,已经在相关研究和实践中得到了广泛应用.在重力模型应用中,结果对参数的敏感性较高,不同的参数设置就可能导致结果体系的巨大差异,故精确的参数是重力模型应用的基础.许多研究关注了重力模型参数的提取,但限于数据等因素,参数在空间上的差异性尚未得到充分的重视.本文采用2010年城市间铁路客运量作为城市间相互作用强度的反映,以城市市辖区居民总可支配收入作为城市的“质量”,刻画城市本身的吸引力,进而通过回归分析考察重力模型的参数结果;并结合地理信息系统的空间插值工具,分析重力模型中各个参数的空间差异并得到可视化结果.相比于既有研究,本文在变量选取中增加了城市间列车交流频次这一变量,与平均运行时间结合共同反映城市之间的“距离”,使模型拟合结果得到较大改进.结果表明,重力模型参数取值在空间上存在显著差异,对不同区域使用统一的重力模型参数可能使结果出现较大偏差,因此将重力模型应用到具体实践中时,不能忽略参数的空间异质性.     

关联指数误差和样本容量

根据关联指数的定义，推导了ＧＰ法计算关联指数时的观测数据误差与关联指数误差的关系，导出了任意两个嵌入空间维上关联指数之差的表达式，并提出了一种确定样本容量限的方法。     

Properties of the aftershocks sequences of the 2000 and 2002 earthquakes in Aksehir-Afyon graben,west-central Anatolia,Turkey

The b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter’s frequency–magnitude relation and the p-value of the modified Omori law, which describes the decay rate of aftershock activity, were investigated for more than 500 aftershocks in the Aksehir-Afyon graben (AAG) following the 15 December 2000 Sultandagi–Aksehir and the 3 February 2002 Çay–Eber and Çobanlar earthquakes. We used the Kandilli Observatory’s catalog, which contains records of aftershocks with magnitudes ≥2.5. For the Çobanlar earthquake, the estimated b-values for three aftershock sequences are in the range 0.34 ≤  b ≤ 2.85, with the exception of the one that occurred during the first hour (4.77), while the obtained p-values are in the range 0.44 ≤ p ≤ 1.77. The aftershocks of the Sultandagi earthquake have a high p-value, indicating fast decay of the aftershock activity. A regular increase of b can be observed, with b < 1.0 after 0.208 days for the Çay–Eber earthquake. A systematic and similar increase and decrease pattern exists for the b- and p-values of the Çobanlar earthquakes during the first 5 days.     

Characteristics and Altitudinal Distribution of Periglacial Decay Phenomena in the Massif of Rondane,Central Norway

The Norwegian massif of Rondane is part of the Scandes Mountains and is subject to polar, oceanic and continental influences. Because of its climatic context and its quartzitic structure, the massif has one of the thickest functional periglacial belts in Europe (1200 m). This belt is not fixed considering its translation in altitude since the end of the Little Ice Age. This mobility is continuing and involves periglacial decay dynamics which are revealed by numerous and various periglacial forms in the field. Because of their frequency in the massif and also their sensitivity to climate fluctuations, earth patches and small non‐sorted circles have a diagnostic value for current periglacial climate fluctuations. The major aim of this study is to propose several indicators of this periglacial decay and to highlight its consequences on periglacial belt mobility because these landforms enable the delimitation of a critical belt of decay in the massif.     

基于Hurst指数的黑龙江省作物生长季降水趋势研究

基于黑龙江省78个气象站1971—2016年逐日降水资料,综合采用墨西哥帽小波分析、Hurst指数分析等方法,对黑龙江省作物生长季(5—9月)降水量变化和未来趋势进行分析及预测。结果表明:1971—2016年,黑龙江省生长季、5月、6月降水量存在7 a、14 a、7 a左右的主周期,7月、8月、9月降水量存在2 a、3 a、7 a左右的第1主周期及6 a、11 a、21 a左右的第2主周期,各月均存在最近几年降水偏多的趋势;作物生长季降水量年际间为波动式振荡变化,7月、8月振荡幅度相对较大。年代际变化总体存在增加—减少—增加趋势,20世纪80年代、90年代降水量普遍偏多,2010年以来出现急转升高变化;单站各月Hurst指数均在0.5以上,降水存在比较明显的赫斯特现象;降水主要出现在夏季且以7月最为集中,最近几年降水偏多、7月异常降水集中以及主要流域未来7月降水的持续增加趋势在农业防灾减灾上值得关注。     

Models for the formation of binary and millisecond radio pulsars

The peculiar combination of a relatively short pulse period and a relatively weak surface dipole magnetic field strength of binary radio pulsars finds a consistent explanation in terms of (i) decay of the surface dipole component of neutron-star magnetic fields on a timescale of (2–5) × 10⁶ yr, in combination with (ii) spin-up of the rotation of the neutron star during a subsequent mass-transfer phase. The four known binary radio pulsars appear to fall into two different categories. Two of them, PSR 0655 + 64 and PSR 1913 + 16, have short orbital periods (<25 h) and high mass functions, indicating companion masses 0.7M⊙ (∼1 (± 0.3) M⊙ and 1.4 M⊙, respectively). The other two, PSR 0820 + 02 and PSR 1953 + 29, have long orbital periods (117d), nearly circular orbits, and low, almost identical mass functions of about 3×10^-3 M⊙, suggesting companion masses of about 0.3M⊙. It is pointed out that these two classes of systems are expected to be formed by the later evolution of binaries consisting of a neutron star and a normal companion star, in which the companion was (considerably) more massive than the neutron star, or less massive than the neutron star, respectively. In the first case the companion of the neutron star in the final system will be a massive white dwarf, in a circular orbit, or a neutron star in an eccentric orbit. In the second case the final companion to the neutron star will be a low-mass (∼ 0.3 M⊙) helium white dwarf in a wide and nearly circular orbit. In systems of the second type the neutron star was most probably formed by the accretion-induced collapse of a white dwarf. This explains in a natural way why PSR 1953 + 29 has a millisecond rotation period and PSR 0820 + 02 has not. Among the binary models proposed for the formation of the 1.5-millisecond pulsar, the only ones that appear to be viable are those in which the companion disappeared by coalescence with the neutron star. In such models the companion may have been a red dwarf of mass 0.03M⊙, a neutron star, or a massive (>0.7M⊙) white dwarf. Only in the last-mentioned case is a position of the pulsar close to the galactic plane a natural consequence. In the first-mentioned case the progenitor system most probably was a cataclysmic-variable binary in which the white dwarf collapsed by accretion.     

混沌系统单变量可预报性研究

对于n维的混沌系统, 不同变量的可预报性是不同的。为了研究混沌系统中单个变量的可预报性, 本文在以前提出的混沌系统整体的非线性局部Lyapunov指数基础上(李建平等, 2006), 引入了单变量的非线性局部Lyapunov指数及其相关统计量, 进一步完善了非线性误差增长理论。通过应用到几个混沌个例, 结果表明单变量的非线性局部Lyapunov指数及其相关统计量可以用来定量地研究多维混沌系统中不同变量的可预报性, 系统不同变量的可预报性之间不是相互独立的, 而是单个变量的可预报期限与系统整体的可预报期限之比都近似保持一个常数, 但各个变量的常数值有所不同。     

A STUDY OF RAPID DECAY TYPHOONS IN OFFSHORE WATERS OF CHINA

On the basis of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and yearbooks of CMA tropical cyclones, statistical analysis is performed for 1949—2013 offshore typhoons subjected to rapid decay(RD). This analysis indicates that RD typhoons are small-probability events, making up about 2.2% of the total offshore typhoons during this period. The RD events experience a decadal variation, mostly in the 1960 s and 1970 s(maximal in the 1970 s), rapidly decrease in the 1980 s and 1990 s and quickly increase from 2000. Also, RD typhoons show remarkable seasonal differences: they arise mainly in April and July-December, with the prime stage being in October-November. The offshore RD typhoons occur mostly in the South China Sea(SCS) and to a lesser extent in the East China Sea(ECS); however, none are observed over the Huang Sea and Bo Sea.Composite analysis and dynamic diagnosis of the RD typhoon-related large-scale circulations are performed.Physical quantities of the composite analysis consist of 500-h Pa height and temperature fields, vapor transfer, vertical wind shear(VWS), density of core convection(DCC), and high-level jet and upper-air outflow of the typhoon. The results suggest that(1) at the 500-h Pa height field, the typhoon is ahead of a westerly trough and under the effects of its passing trough;(2) at the temperature field, the typhoon is ahead of a temperature trough, with an invading cold tongue present;(3) at the vapor transfer field, water transfer into the RD typhoon is cut off; and(4) at higher levels, the related jet weakens and the outbreak of convection becomes attenuated in the typhoon core. In addition, VWS bears a relation to the RD typhoon; in particular, strong VWS favors RD occurrence.The differences in RD events between the SCS and ECS show that for the RD, the VWS of the ECS environmental winds is markedly stronger in comparison with its SCS counterpart. The cold advection invading into the typhoons is more intense in the SCS than in the ECS, and the low-level vapor transfer and high-level outflow are weaker in the SCS RD typhoons.Data analysis shows that sea surface temperature(SST), VWS, and DCC can be employed as efficient factors to predict RD occurrence. With appropriate SST, VWS, and DCC, a warning of RD occurrence can be given 36, 30-36,and 30 h, respectively, in advance. These values suggest that atmospheric SST responses lag. Owing to this time lag,the prediction of RD typhoons is possible.