卡尔曼滤波在滑坡监测中的应用

针对滑波变形的特点,将滑坡体上的监测点视为一运动点场,提出一种以运动方程为核心、以卡尔曼滤波技术为工具的变形观测数据处理方法,使滑坡的预报成为可能.     

基于BP神经网络的泥石流平均流速预测

泥石流平均流速是泥石流防治工程中不可缺少的重要参数,准确地预测泥石流平均流速对于泥石流防治工程的设计是至关重要的。将BP神经网络应用于泥石流平均流速的预测:将泥石流平均流速的影响因素--泥沙平均粒径、泥深、沟床比降和泥石流密度作为BP神经网络的输入单元,通过对云南东川蒋家沟泥石流观测数据的训练与预测建立了泥石流平均流速的BP神经网络预测模型。将预测结果与东川公式和曼宁修正公式的计算结果进行对比:曼宁修正公式和东川公式预测结果最大误差分别为27%和7.3%,BP神经网络的预测结果最大误差仅为3.2%,BP神经网络的预测精度是最高的,可见此方法对泥石流平均流速预测具有适用性和准确性。最后应用此方法预测了乌东德水电站近坝库区内的3条泥石流的平均流速分别为12.8 m/s、11.3 m/s和13.0 m/s,为库区泥石流防治工程提供了可靠的参考数据。     

泥石流排导结构耦合磨损随机过程建模及分析

泥石流排导结构对于减轻泥石流对周围建筑物的损毁起到了显著作用,但目前大多数排导结构难以抵御泥石流的强烈侵蚀磨损和周围环境恶劣时伴随产生的腐蚀磨损。首先,通过分析泥石流排导结构侵蚀和腐蚀磨损机理,应用相关磨损量计算公式,提出了考虑侵蚀和腐蚀的泥石流排导结构耦合磨损计算公式。然后,以此为基础,针对磨损过程的动态性和随机性,建立了泥石流排导结构耦合磨损随机过程模型,推导了任意时刻磨损量的分布函数,实现了评估泥石流排导结构的动态可靠性和概率失效时间。最后,通过具体算例分析验证了模型的实用性,可为今后泥石流排导结构的磨损定量评估提供理论参考。     

基于EMD的云南东川蒋家沟泥石流年输沙量多时间尺度分析

基于经验模态分解(EMD)方法,对云南东川蒋家沟泥石流1965年至2004年40年的年输沙量时间序列进行多时间尺度分析,该时间序列分解成3个本征模函数(IMF)分量和趋势项(Res)分量。分析表明：蒋家沟泥石流的年输沙量存在多尺度的周期性波动,分别是2~4 a、6~10 a和17~21 a的准周期。通过对各IMF分量和Res趋势项分析发现,自1985年之后,波动的振幅开始变大,表明蒋家沟泥石流的年输沙量变化很大。降雨对蒋家沟泥石流的年输沙量及周期性波动有一定程度的影响。人类活动改变环境的同时,也为蒋家沟泥石流提供固体物质来源,这使得蒋家沟泥石流的年输沙量周期性波动变得更加复杂。     

Topographic predictors of susceptibility to alluvial fan flooding,Southern Apennines

The flooding susceptibility of alluvial fans in the Southern Apennines has long been neglected. To partly address this oversight, we focus on the region of Campania which contains highly urbanized piedmont areas particularly vulnerable to flooding. Our findings are based on stratigraphic analysis of the fans and morphometric analysis of the basin‐fan systems. Using geomorphological analysis we recognized active alluvial fans while stratigraphic analysis together with statistical analysis of the morphometric variables was used to classify the fans in terms of the transport process involved. The results indicate that in the geological context examined, the best discrimination between debris flow (Df) and water flood (Wf) processes is achieved by means of two related variables, one for the basin (feeder channel inclination, Cg) and one for the fan (fan length, Fl). The probability that an unclassified fan belongs to group Wf is computed by applying a logistic function in which a P value exceeding 0.5 indicates that a basin/fan system belongs to group Wf. This important result led to the classification of the entire basin/fan system data. As regards process intensity, debris flow‐dominated fans are susceptible to the occurrence of flows with high viscosity and hence subject to more severe events than water flood‐dominated fans. Bearing this in mind, the data gathered in this study allow us to detect where alluvial fan flooding might occur and give information on the different degrees of susceptibility at a regional scale. Regrettably, urban development in recent decades has failed to take the presence of such alluvial fans into account due to the long recurrence time (50–100 years) between floods. This paper outlines the distribution of such susceptibility scenarios throughout the region, thereby constituting an initial step to implementing alluvial fan flooding control and mitigation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Log‐jams and avulsions in the San Antonio River Delta,Texas

The San Antonio River Delta (SARD), Texas, has experienced two major avulsions in the past 80 years, and a number of other historical and Holocene channel shifts. The causes and consequences of these avulsions – one of which is ongoing – were examined using a combination of fieldwork, geographic information system (GIS) analysis, and historical information to identify active, semi‐active, and paleochannels and the sequence of shifting flow paths through the delta. The role of deposition patterns and antecedent morphology, large woody debris jams, and tectonic influences were given special attention. Sedimentation in the SARD is exacerbated by tectonic effects. Channel aggradation is ubiquitous, and superelevation of the channel bed above the level of backswamp areas on the floodplain is common. This creates ideal setup conditions for avulsions, and stable, cohesive fine‐grained banks favor avulsions rather than lateral migration. Flood basins between the alluvial ridges associated with the aggraded channels exist, but avulsions occur by re‐occupation of former channels found within or connected to the flood basins. Large woody debris and channel‐blocking log‐jams are common, and sometimes displace flow from the channel, triggering crevasses. However, a large, recurring log‐jam at the site of the ongoing avulsion from the San Antonio River into Elm Bayou is not responsible for the channel shift. Rather, narrow, laterally stable channels resulting from flow splits lead to accumulation of wood. Some aspects of the SARD avulsion regime are typical of other deltas, while others are more novel. These includes avulsions involving tributaries and subchannels within the delta as well as from the dominant channel; tectonic influences on delta backstepping and on channel changes within the delta; avulsions as an indirect trigger for log‐jam formation (as well as vice‐versa); and maintenance of a multi‐channel flow pattern distinct from classic anastamosing or distributary systems. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大渡河长河坝水电站区域泥石流特征及危险性评价

2009年7月23日,四川省甘孜州康定县舍联乡长河坝水电站施工区响水沟发生特大泥石流灾害,造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失。响水沟是大渡河上游段右岸一级支沟,近百年来泥石流活动不明显。由于之前近一个月的连续降雨,沟谷内的不稳定堆积物已基本处于饱水状态,当日的强降雨直接诱发了此次泥石流灾害。本文根据现场调查资料,就该沟泥石流的形成条件、灾害成因及特征进行分析,并应用灰色系统理论关联分析方法和沟谷泥石流危险度计算分析综合评价其危险性。结果表明,在极端气象条件下,响水沟仍有可能发生中等至大规模暴雨型粘性泥石流。     

基于GIS的兰州滑坡与泥石流灾害危险性分析

频繁发生的灾害愈来愈对人类社会造成巨大影响, 遥感、地理信息系统、全球定位系统和网络技术日益在减灾行动中发挥重要的作用. 兰州区域地质岩性、构造断裂、地震活动带、地表侵蚀强烈和地形起伏破碎等因素造成了兰州滑坡与泥石流灾害的发育, 夏季暴雨、人类工程活动等诱发下灾害频繁, 风险加剧. 针对兰州地区滑坡与泥石流等山地灾害对区域社会经济的影响, 通过建立区域滑坡与泥石流灾害的空间数据库, 在GIS技术辅助下实现了专家经验模型和Logistic模型对滑坡与泥石流灾害危险性的预测, 其中滑坡Logistic模型准确性达到85.3%, 专家经验模型准确性达到74.2%; 泥石流Logistic危险性预模型准确性达到80.5%, 专家经验模型准确性达到90.5%. 随着研究的深入, 综合遥感、地理信息系统、全球定位系统和网络技术的灾害研究与应用将在灾害防治中发挥重要的作用.     

基于功效系数法的泥石流灾害预警研究

泥石流灾害破坏力巨大,预测预报泥石流发生的可能性是防灾减灾的重要手段,也是国内外学者研究的热点。基于功效系数法原理,在综合分析泥石流灾害发生的气象、地质环境影响因素的基础上,选取了山坡坡度、相对高差、植被覆盖率、沿沟松散物储量、5 d累计降雨量、最大小时雨强和当日雨量为评价因子,采用改进后的层次分析法计算评价因子的权重系数,建立了泥石流预测预警模型。以岫岩地区泥石流为例对预警模型进行检验,预测结果较好地反映了实际情况。表明基于功效系数法的泥石流预测预警模型具备较高的可靠性和实用性,研究结果为泥石流预测预警提供了一种新的思路和方法。     

Riparian reforestation and channel change: A case study of two small tributaries to Sleepers River, northeastern Vermont, USA

Measurements of two small streams in northeastern Vermont, collected in 1966 and 2004–2005, document considerable change in channel width following a period of passive reforestation. Channel widths of several tributaries to Sleepers River in Danville, VT, USA, were previously measured in 1966 when the area had a diverse patchwork of forested and nonforested riparian vegetation. Nearly 40 years later, we remeasured bed widths and surveyed large woody debris (LWD) in two of these tributaries, along 500 m of upper Pope Brook and along nearly the entire length (3 km) of an unnamed tributary (W12). Following the longitudinal survey, we collected detailed channel and riparian information for nine reaches along the same two streams. Four reaches had reforested since 1966; two reaches remained nonforested. The other three reaches have been forested since at least the 1940s. Results show that reforested reaches were significantly wider than as measured in 1966, and they are more incised than all other forested and nonforested reaches. Visual observations, cross-sectional surveys, and LWD characteristics indicate that reforested reaches continue to change in response to riparian reforestation. The three reaches with the oldest forest were widest for a given drainage area, and the nonforested reaches were substantially narrower. Our observations culminated in a conceptual model that describes a multiphase process of incision, widening, and recovery following riparian reforestation of nonforested areas. Results from this case study may help inform stream restoration efforts by providing insight into potentially unanticipated changes in channel size associated with the replanting of forested riparian buffers adjacent to small streams.