A comparative error analysis of manual versus automated methods of data acquisition for algebraic strain estimation

This paper presents a statistical analysis of the algebraic strain estimation algorithm of Shimamoto and Ikeda [Shimamoto, T., Ikeda, Y., 1976. A simple algebraic method for strain estimation from deformed eillipsoidal objects: 1. Basic theory. Tectonophysics 36, 315–337]. It is argued that the error in their strain estimation procedure can be quantified using an expected discrepancy measure. An analysis of this measure demonstrates that the error is inversely proportional to the number of clasts used. The paper also examines the role of measurement error, in particular that incurred under (i) a moment based and (ii) manual data acquisition methods. Detailed analysis of these two acquisition methods shows that in both cases, the effect of measurement error on the expected discrepancy is small relative to the effect of the sample size (number of objects). Given their relative speed advantage, this result favours the use of automated measurement methods even if they incur more measurement error on individual objects. Validation of these results is carried out by means of a simulation study, as well as by reference to studies appearing in previous literature. The results are also applied to obtain an upper bound on the error of strain estimation for various studies published in the literature on strain analysis.     

良好植被区泥石流防治初探

通过对近年来发生在良好植被区的几次重大泥石流、滑坡灾害的考察,发现植被在泥石流、滑坡形成中的作用有待于进一步认识。通过分析,当中小强度降雨激发下,植被能够削减泥石流、滑坡灾害的规模,甚至抑制泥石流、滑坡灾害的发生;当降雨超过一定阀值后,在水作用下,植被不但不能削减灾害规模,反而增大灾害的规模。在这类地区,简单地使用一般的防治措施,已经不能满足防灾、减灾的需要,客观要求针对这些地区泥石流灾害的形成原因、危害特征,研究防治对策。经初步研究提出3点防治措施:1)加强泥石流滑坡灾害的预测预报工作;2)在重点区域设置自动雨量记录报警装置;3)特别针对漂木拦挡,采取新型结构减轻泥石流的危害。     

山地灾害研究的发展态势与任务

泥石流、滑坡等山地灾害已成为世界各国十分关注的自然灾害问题。据最近几年的国际学术会议,泥石流、滑坡研究的前沿领域是：泥石流、滑坡活动的地带性与全球气候变化的规律；泥石流、滑坡起动机理、动力学模型；泥石流、滑坡等山地灾害风险分析、发生时间预报；成灾机理与减灾防灾关键技术。国内研究较晚,但发展很快。经过近50 a的研究,涉及上述诸多研究颁域。但研究不深,还存在不少差距。据国内外研究态势,针对山地所实际,提出了在泥石流、滑坡理论创新和防治关键技术等研究方面12条任务。     

Improved reliability in the interpretation of geochemical measurements by the quantification of uncertainty from sampling

All geochemical measurements require the taking of field samples, but the uncertainty that this process causes is often ignored when assessing the reliability of the interpretation, of the geochemistry or the health implications. Recently devised methods for the estimation, optimisation and reduction of this uncertainty have been evaluated by their application to the investigation of contaminated land. Uncertainty of measurement caused by primary sampling has been estimated for a range of six different contaminated land site investigations, using an increasingly recognized procedure. These site investigations were selected to reflect a wide range of different sizes, contaminants （organic and metals）, previous land uses （e.g. tin mining, railway sidings and gas works）, intended future use （housing to nature reserves） and routinely applied sampling methods. The results showed that the uncertainty on measurements was substantial, ranging from 25% to 186% of the concentration values at the different sites. Sampling was identified as the dominant source of the uncertainty （〉70% of measurement uncertainty） in most cases. The fitness-for-purpose of the measurements was judged using the optimized contaminated land investigation （OCLI） method. This identifies the optimal level of uncertainty that reduces to overall financial loss caused by the measurement procedures and the misclassification of the contamination, caused by the uncertainty. Generally the uncertainty of the actual measurements made in these different site investigations was found to be sub-optimal, and too large by a factor of approximately two. The uncertainty is usually limited by the sampling, but this can be reduced by increasing the sample mass by a factor of 4 （predicted by sampling theory）. It is concluded that knowing the value of the uncertainty enables the interpretation to be made more reliable, and that sampling is the main factor limiting most investigations. This new approach quantifies this problem for the first time, and allows sampling procedures to be critically evaluated, and modified, to improve the reliability of the geochemical assessment.     

Attenuation of aqueous metal transport at two natural acid rock drainage occurrences in the Yukon Territory, Canada

Naturally acidic drainage associated with pyritic black shale has been observed in many locations in the Yukon Territory. While not necessarily linked to known mineral deposits, most of these natural acid rock drainage occurrences show elevated dissolved concentrations of trace elements, especially zinc, nickel, copper, cadmium and arsenic. Based on field observations, microbial investigation, chemical analyses and geochemical modeling, the fate and transport of potentially deleterious elements at two natural acid drainage occurrences with slightly different settings are examined. The Macintosh Creek is a small, acidic stream （pH 2.98-3.40）, 2 km long, located in the Macmillan Pass area of east-central Yukon amidst known sedimentary exhalative massive sulfide mineralization but remains undisturbed by exploration activities. Its trace metal content is apparently derived from groundwater discharges, which gave as much as 5.0, 2.5, 0.7, 0.13 and 0.03 mg/L ofZn, Ni, Cu and As, respectively. Interaction and sorption reactions with algal mats, biofilms and iron oxyhydroxides appear to be the dominant mechanisms attenuating aqueous contaminant transport along the stream. Cryogenic precipitation further consolidates the ferricrete formation and reduces the mobility of the sorbed metals. The tributaries of the Engineering Creek along the Dempster Highway in northern Yukon drain through a series of dolomite, phyllite, argillite, limestone, black shale, sandstone and conglomerate with no known concentration of mineralization. In this area, the water chemistry fully reflects the local geology with acidic streams invariably associated with black shale occurrences. Groundwater seeps in the headwaters area of the km-180 Creek completely enclosed in black shale gave pH 3.0 and as much as 148, 39, 2.9 and 9.1 mg/L of Zn, Ni, Cu and As, respectively. Sorption with iron oxyhydroxide and organic matter appear to dominate the attenuation of contaminant transport along the stream. However, once entered into carbonate-dominated terrains, secondary carbonate minerals exercise additional geochemical control on the local water chemistry as a result of neutralization.     

西北地区泥石流沟形态因素的非线性分析——以兰州市为例

以兰州市区96条主要的泥石流沟为例,利用分形理论的统计自相似性对泥石流沟数的累计分布随沟谷形态要素沟道比降、汇水面积和沟道长度的变化进行了分析;并与不同流域形态要素的分维进行了比较,探讨了分维不同的原因。兰州市区泥石流沟三个形态要素均具有统计意义上的自相似性,其中以汇水面积显示出分维最小(0.46),沟道长度次之(0.71),沟道比降最大(1.09)。分维的大小描述了作为系统的沟谷及其泥石流的形成的空间结构,即分形结构,同时也反映了不同形态要素对系统所起作用的差异,分维越小,所起作用越显著。其结果对西北干旱半干旱地区石流灾害的进一步研究与防治提供了新的思路。     

弯道超高法在泥石流流速计算中的应用——以四川省汶川县G317国道磨子沟泥石流为例

选取四川省汶川至马尔康公路线的磨子沟作为试验对象,采用弯道超高法推算其泥石流流速。进而可以计算出该次泥石流的平均流量,为公路的改建工程提供设计依据。经过实地调查,用此方法计算磨子沟2005年8月17日暴发的泥石流流速为4.4m/s。同其他流速方法计算的结果相比较,前者值偏大,且偏向于工程安全值。弯道超高法可以解决泥石流观测的局限性和泥石流发生的不可重复性。此方法简便易行,对泥石流防治工程具有一定的实用价值。     

Comparison of magnetic parameters with vehicular Br levels in urban roadside soils

Chemical methods are generally chosen to monitor soil pollution but magnetic measurements proved to yield additional information at low cost and less time consumption. In this investigation, the novel use of rapid and non-destructive magnetic measurements to characterize Br levels in Xuzhou (China) urban roadside soils was reported. X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRF) was used to quantify Br in the soil samples. Data from 21 roadside soil samples confirm Br contamination, with a mean level of 4.36 mg kg⁻¹ and a range of 2.4–8.7 mg kg⁻¹. These values are higher than that of unpolluted soils in Xuzhou that averages 1.1 mg kg⁻¹. Hierarchical clustering analysis shows Br in Xuzhou roadside soils is mainly from road traffic. Clear correlations between Br levels and simple magnetic parameters [mass specific susceptibility (χ _LF), susceptibility of anhysteretic remanent magnetization (χ _ARM), saturation isothermal remanence (SIRM)] are observed. The present study shows that these three magnetic parameters can be used as a proxy for Br levels in Xuzhou urban roadside soils.     

Some Observations on the Use of Data from Historical Documents in Debris-Flow Studies

The knowledge of past events is important for the assessment of debris-flow hazard. Amongst the sources of information, documents from historical archives are particularly important in sites where the debris flows cause damage to urban areas and transportation routes. The paper analyses the availability of historical documents on debris flows in Northeastern Italy and discusses factors that can influence the building of time series from archive data both at regional and single basin scales. An increased number of debris flows was observed in the studied region for the last decades. This could be due both to an increased frequency of the events and to a larger availability of information: the analysis carried out indicates that the latter factor is probably the most influencing. The importance of factors, which affect the collection of data, including the conservation of documents and the presence and fragility of the elements at risk, is stressed in view of a wise use of historical data on debris flows.