新一代天气雷达在泥石流灾害中的应用探讨

天气雷达的发展大致经历了4个阶段，其主要用于监测强对流天气、定量估计降水，是气象部门的重要探测和监测手段之一。新一代天气雷达观测的实时回波强度（Z）、径向风速（V）、速度谱宽（W）的回波图像中，提供了丰富的有关强对流天气的信息，综合使用Z、V、W的图像分析，有利于较准确和及时地监测灾害性天气。云南滑坡泥石流灾害高发区与云南暴雨中心有很好的对应关系，云南滑坡泥石流灾害空间分布与暴雨空间分布的空间相关系数为0．19，通过了0．05的显著性水平检验，也进一步说明云南暴雨在滑坡泥石流灾害发生中起着重要作用。以2004年7月5日德宏州特大山洪泥石流灾害为例子，探讨了新一代天气雷达在泥石流灾害的临阵预警中的应用。     

GIS‐assisted modelling for debris flow hazard assessment based on the events of May 1998 in the area of Sarno,Southern Italy: Part I. Maximum run‐out

Based on the debris flow events that occurred in May 1998 in the area of Sarno, Southern Italy, this paper presents an approach to simulate debris flow maximum run‐out. On the basis of the flow source areas and an average thickness of 1·2 m of the scarps, we estimated debris flow volumes of the order of 10⁴ and 10⁵ m³. Flow mobility ratios (ΔH/L) derived from the x, y, z coordinates of the lower‐most limit of the source areas (i.e. apex of the alluvial fan) and the distal limit of the flows ranged between 0·27 and 0·09. We performed regression analyses that showed a good correlation between the estimated flow volumes and mobility ratios. This paper presents a methodology for predicting maximum run‐out of future debris flow events, based on the developed empirical relationship. We implemented the equation that resulted from the calibration as a set of GIS macros written in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) and running within ArcGIS. We carried out sensitivity analyses and observed that hazard mapping with this methodology should attempt to delineate hazard zones with a minimum horizontal resolution of 0·4 km. The developed procedure enables the rapid delineation of debris flow maximum extent within reasonable levels of uncertainty, it incorporates sensitivities and it facilitates hazard assessments via graphic user interfaces and with modest computing resources. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地貌灾害预测预报的基本问题——以泥石流预测预报为例

从地貌灾害的定义入手，阐述了地貌灾害预测预报需要解决的四个基本问题、解决这四个问题的二种途径，以及进行预测预报的四种方法。以泥石流为例，论述了泥石流预测预报的现状及其热点、难点和可能的突破点，以及目前和今后一段时期的切人点和研究重点。综述了国内外对泥石流小尺度空间预测，规模预测，时间预测，包括重现期预测、降雨预测和危险度预测的一系列有实用价值的经验公式及其在应用中存在的问题。阐明了灾害评价和预测预报在灾害学研究中的重要地位。     

Transport and deposition of large woody debris in streams: a flume experiment

Large woody debris (LWD) is an integral component of forested streams of the Pacific Northwest and elsewhere, yet little is known about how far wood is transported and where it is deposited in streams. In this paper, we report the results of flume experiments that examine interactions among hydraulics, channel geometry, transport distance and deposition of floating wood. These experiments were carried out in a 1.22-m-wide×9.14-m-long gravel bed flume using wooden dowels of various sizes as surrogate logs. Channel planforms were either self-formed or created by hand, and ranged from meanders to alternate bars. Floating pieces tended to orient with long axes parallel to flow in the center of the channel. Pieces were deposited where channel depth was less than buoyant depth, typically at the head of mid-channel bars, in shallow zones where flow expanded, and on the outside of bends. We hypothesize that the distance logs travel may be a function of the channel's debris roughness, a dimensionless index incorporating ratios of piece length and diameter to channel width, depth and sinuosity. Travel distance decreased as the ratio of piece length to both channel width and radius of curvature increased, but the relative importance of these variables changed with channel planform. Large pieces can move further than our debris roughness models predict if greater than 50% of the active channel area is deeper than the buoyant depth of the piece, or if momentum is high enough to carry pieces across shallows. Our debris roughness model allows first-order prediction of the amount of wood transport under various channel geometries.     

冲淤变动型沟谷泥石流防治结构及计算

本文以平川沟泥石流为例 ,基于对冲淤变动型沟谷泥石流基本特性的分析 ,遵循“以泄为主、导排结合”的防治原则 ,提出了有效治理此类泥石流的汇流 #速流结构 ;运用地基梁计算理论对速流槽进行了力学分析计算 ,比较详细地进行了汇流槽侧墙、锚固桩的内力计算。     

新一轮二滩电站库区遥感调查

新一轮二滩电站库区遥感调查是在我国前20年滑坡、泥石流遥感调查技术方法基础上的一次革新。本文介绍了革新方法的数据源、工作平台、技术流程、及人机交互与自动分类相结合的遥感解译方法，并对获得的工作区滑坡、泥石流的数量、分布、特性及它们的环境背景作简要分析。     

The Llullaillaco volcano, northwest Argentina: construction by Pleistocene volcanism and destruction by sector collapse

Llullaillaco is one of a chain of Quaternary stratovolcanoes that defines the present Andean Central Volcanic Zone (CVZ), and marks the border between Chile and Argentina/Bolivia. The current edifice is constructed from a series of thick dacitic lava flows, forming the second tallest active volcano in the world (6739 m). K–Ar and new biotite laser ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar step-heating dates indicate that the volcano was constructed during the Pleistocene (≤1.5 Ma), with a youngest date of 0.048±0.012 Ma being recorded for a fresh dacite flow that descends the southern flank. Additional ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar measurements for andesitic and dacitic lava flows from the surrounding volcanic terrain yield dates of between 11.94±0.13 Ma and 5.48±0.07 Ma, corresponding to an extended period of Miocene volcanism which defines much of the landscape in this region. Major- and trace-element compositions of lavas from Llullaillaco are typical of Miocene–Pleistocene volcanic rocks from the western margin of the CVZ, and are related to relatively shallow-dipping subduction of the Nazca plate beneath northern Chile and Argentina.Oversteepening of the edifice by stacking of thick, viscous, dacitic lava flows resulted in collapse of its southeastern flank to form a large volcanic debris avalanche. Biotite ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of lava blocks from the avalanche deposit indicate that collapse occurred at or after 0.15 Ma, and may have been triggered by extrusion of a dacitic flow similar to the one dated at 0.048±0.012 Ma. The avalanche deposits are exceptionally well preserved due to the arid climate, and prominent levées, longitudinal ridges, and megablocks up to 20-m diameter are observed.The avalanche descended 2.8 km vertically, and bifurcated around an older volcano, Cerro Rosado, before debouching onto the salt flats of Salina de Llullaillaco. The north and south limbs of the avalanche traveled 25 and 23 km, respectively, and together cover an area of approximately 165 km². Estimates of deposit volume are hampered by a lack of thickness information except at the edges, but it is likely to be between 1 and 2 km³. Equivalent coefficients of friction of 0.11 and 0.12, and excess travel distances of 20.5 and 18.5 km, are calculated for the north and south limbs, respectively. The avalanche ascended 400 m where it broke against the western flank of Cerro Rosado, and a minimum flow velocity of 90 m s⁻¹ can be calculated at this point; lower velocities of 45 m s⁻¹ are calculated where distal toes ascend 200 m slopes.It is suggested that the remaining precipitous edifice has a high probability for further avalanche collapse in the event of renewed volcanism.     

Empirical predictors of annual bed load travel distance,and implications for salmonid habitat restoration and protection

Measurements of annual travel distance (L_b) of bed load sediment at 16 locations in Alaska, the intermountain USA, west coast USA and Scotland are strongly correlated with bankfull channel width (r² = 0·86, p < 0·001). Travel distance of particles is probably limited by trapping in bars, which have a longitudinal spacing proportional to channel width. Increased abundance of woody debris reduces bar spacing and may reduce L_b. Longer cumulative duration of bed load transporting flows in a year appears to increase L_b. Other predictors of annual travel distance such as stream power per unit length, drainage area and bankfull discharge were less well correlated with L_b (r² ranging from 0·27 to 0·51). Stream power per unit bed area, basal shear stress and slope were not significantly related to L_b (r² < 0·05). Most correlations were improved when regressions were limited to data from the west coast USA. Travel distance estimates can be used to help identify reaches that may take longer to recover from large, short‐term increases in sediment supply. Published in 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Distorted Froude‐scaled flume analysis of large woody debris

This paper presents the results of a movable‐boundary, distorted, Froude‐scaled hydraulic model based on Abiaca Creek, a sand‐bedded channel in northern Mississippi. The model was used to examine the geomorphic and hydraulic impact of simplified large woody debris (LWD) elements. The theory of physical scale models is discussed and the method used to construct the LWD test channel is developed. The channel model had bed and banks moulded from 0·8 mm sand, and flow conditions were just below the threshold of motion so that any sediment transport and channel adjustment were the result of the debris element. Dimensions and positions of LWD elements were determined using a debris jam classification model. Elements were attached to a dynamometer to measure element drag forces, and channel adjustment was determined through detailed topographic surveys. The fluid drag force on the elements decreased asymptotically over time as the channel boundary eroded around the elements due to locally increased boundary shear stress. Total time for geomorphic adjustment computed for the prototype channel at the Q₂ discharge (discharge occurring once every two years on average) was as short as 45 hours. The size, depth and position of scour holes, bank erosion and bars created by flow acceleration past the elements were found to be related to element length and position within the channel cross‐section. Morphologies created by each debris element in the model channel were comparable with similar jams observed in the prototype channel. Published in 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards of Alluvial Fans

A strategy is presented for the assessment ofdebris-flow hazards on alluvial fans on the basis ofa case study carried out on the southern foot of astratovolcano named Mt. Yatsugatake. Transformation ofcommercial forests into a golf course was planned ata corner of the Kikkakezawa fan. The case studyinvolves an assessment of hazards due to debris flowsof different magnitudes and their recurrenceintervals. The environmental conditions for therecurrence of these debris flows are discussed as wellas the extent of the areas affected by them. In orderto generalize the case study, concepts of hazardpotential, hazard and risk for debris flows onalluvial fans are established. Accordingly, the hazardpotential is the possible hazards at any location onan alluvial fan in an indefinitely long time period,which can be assessed on the basis of hydrological andother geoscientific investigations. Hazards associatedwith a particular land use can be evaluated on thebasis of the hazard potential considering the locationand the time period associated with the land use. Riskcan be further assessed considering the life styles inthis land and the social conditions.