隧道开挖模拟计算中的模型识别方法初探

介绍了利用隧道施工的位移量测信息来选择计算模型的原理和方法。应用实例表明，本文所提出的方法有较好的应用前景。     

A variance-ratio test for supporting a variable mean in kriging

This article discusses the issue of whether to use a variable mean and describes a test that can be used to evaluate whether it is justified to add terms to the drift (deterministic part) of a geostatistical model. The basic model could be the intrinsic one, where the deterministic part is a constant, and the alternate model could be any model that includes a constant term in the expression for the drift. Also, differences between constant- and variable-mean models are discussed.     

晋南地穹列煤层气赋存区构造应力分析

根据晋南地穹列构造型相分析，恢复了4期应力场：①地洼初动期（印支期）近S－N水平挤压；②地洼激烈期（燕山期）NWW－SEE水平挤压；③地洼余动期（喜山早期）NNE－SSW水平挤压；④地洼余动期（喜山中期）NW－SE、NWW－SEE近水平伸展。其现代构造应力场以NW－SE向伸展应力场为主，但在沁水地穹则表现为NEE－SWW向近水平挤压应力场。有限元模拟分析证实：此局部挤压应力场的动力来源于挽近地质时期太行山和霍山的隆起与抬升，临汾地洼和太原地洼中的伸展应力场则与地洼壳体下部慢源物质逸散所导致的侧向拉伸有关。区内应力降的分布特点与晋南地穹列断裂构造发育程度具有良好的对应相关性，在高应力降区，单位体积煤层气含量显著高于其它地区。模拟主应力差等值线图中两个高主应力差值区恰好与东部沁水地穹中两个高含气量区相对应，充分说明地洼余动期构造应力场中高压应力区是煤层气富集的有利地区。     

岩溶地下水集中开采区水质系统预测研究

在岩溶地区，地下水的超强度开采与工业“三废”及生活废弃物不合理的排放，造成了地下水较严重的污染。用动态系统方法建立的地下水污染时间序列递推预测模型，在岩溶地下水环境质量预测与管理方面都具有指导意义。     

中国古大陆及其边缘早古生代层序地层及海平面变化的基本特征

着重总结了我国古大陆及其边缘早古生代大层序（ｍｅｇａｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅ，一级层序）和中层序（ｍｅｓｏｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅ，二级层序），以及一级、二级海平面变化的基本特征，并与国外早古生代海平面变化进行对比．我国３大古陆（华北陆块、扬子陆块、塔里木陆块）及其边缘早古生代大层序可划分为两个（ＭＧ－１，ＭＧ－２）．中层序划分为５个（ＭＳ－１，ＭＳ－２，ＭＳ－３，ＭＳ－４，ＭＳ－５）．ＭＧ－１包括ＭＳ－１，ＭＳ－２和ＭＳ－３，时限为９４～１１２Ｍａ（寒武纪和早奥陶世），底以巨大不整合为界，顶以著名巨大沉没不整合为限，沉积了我国显生宙大部分的碳酸盐岩，赋存着丰富的油气和各种金属及非金属矿产．ＭＧ－２包括ＭＳ－４和ＭＳ－５，时限为５８～６８Ｍａ（中、晚奥陶世和志留纪），底界以巨大沉没不整合为界，为硅质碎屑－碳酸盐岩组合．海平面变化的级别划分对应于层序．中国３大古陆及其边缘早古生代海平面变化的总貌：ＭＧＳＣ－１初期普遍发生快速海进，海平面升高，尔后海平面下降，其间有多期次的小幅度海进和海退变化．ＭＧＳＣ－２则普遍海平面升高，上升幅度大于ＭＧＳＣ－１，尔后逐渐下降．     

The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.     

The hydrocarbon generation mechanism and the three-stage type model of hydrocarbon generation for carbonate source rocks

The diagenetic mechanism and process of carbonate rocks, which is different to that of clastic rocks, decides the existence of different existing state organic matters in carbonate rocks. This has been verified by both the microscopic observation of organic petrology and the analysis of organic geochemistry of many samples. Based on the hydrous pyrolysis simulation experiment of the low-mature carbonate rocks, the contrasting study on the yield and their geochemistry characteristics of different existing state soluble organic matters of a series of various maturity samples shows that the different existing state organic matters make different contributions to hydrocarbon generation during every evolution state. So that, the hydrocarbon generation process of carbonate rocks can be summarized as the following three stages: the first is the direct degradation of biogenic bitumen macromolecules during the immature stage, the second is the thermal degradation of a large amount of kerogen at the mature stage, the last stage is the expulsion or release of inclusion organic matter owing to the increased thermal expansion pressure during the high evolution stage. Part of achievements of the Eighth Five-Year National Science-Technology Key-Task Project “85-102-02-07”.     

Converting Radial Distortions Due to Geopotential Models to Geopotential Stokes Coefficients

A methodology for improving geopotential models has been developed. Theoretical relations have been derived converting coefficients in harmonic expansions for radial distortions due to geopotential models into geopotential Stokes coefficients. Terms of the order of 10 ^–10 in magnitude have been retained.     

Main models and distribution patterns of gas reservoirs in large-medium gas fields of China

Based on characteristics and trap types of gas reservoirs in large and medium gas fields in China, 4 gas reservoir models have been established:(i) structural trap gas reservoir model I, formed earlier than or simutaneously with generating of gases; (ii) structural trap gas reservoir model II, formed later than generating of gases; (iii) fossil weathered residuum gas reservoir model; and (iV) mud diapir abnormal temperature and pressure gas reservoir model. Distribution patterns of large-medium gas fields are described with the concept of “sealed compartment”. It is concluded that the inner-compartment area, marginal area of the compartment and the areas between two overlapped sealed compartments are the most favourable areas for discovering large-medium gas fields. Project supported by the “85–102” Chinese National Key Science and Technology Project.