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901.
Aftershock Statistics 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Robert Shcherbakov Donald L. Turcotte John B. Rundle 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2005,162(6-7):1051-1076
The statistical properties of aftershock sequences are associated with three empirical scaling relations: (1) Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude scaling, (2) Båths law for the magnitude of the largest aftershock, and (3) the modified Omoris law for the temporal decay of aftershocks. In this paper these three laws are combined to give a relation for the aftershock decay rate that depends on only a few parameters. This result is used to study the temporal properties of aftershock sequences of several large California earthquakes. A review of different mechanisms and models of aftershocks are also given. The scale invariance of the process of stress transfer caused by a main shock and the heterogeneous medium in which aftershocks occur are responsible for the occurrence of scaling laws. We suggest that the observed partitioning of energy could play a crucial role in explaining the physical origin of Båths law. We also study the stress relaxation process in a simple model of damage mechanics and find that the rate of energy release in this model is identical to the rate of aftershock occurrence described by the modified Omoris law. 相似文献
902.
Volcanic eruptions typically produce a number of hazards, and many regions are at risk from more than one volcano or volcanic field. So that detailed risk assessments can be carried out, it is necessary to rank potential volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk. As it is often difficult to make accurate predictions regarding the characteristics of future eruptions, a method for ranking hazards and events has been developed that does not rely on precise values. Risk is calculated individually for each hazard from each source as the product of likelihood, extent and effect, based on the parameters order of magnitude. So that multiple events and outcomes can be considered, risk is further multiplied by the relative probability of the event occurring (probabilitye) and the relative importance of the outcome (importanceo). By adding the values obtained, total risk is calculated and a ranking can be carried out.This method was used to rank volcanic hazards and events that may impact the Auckland Region, New Zealand. Auckland is at risk from the Auckland volcanic field, Okataina volcanic centre, Taupo volcano, Tuhua volcano, Tongariro volcanic centre, and Mt. Taranaki volcano. Relative probabilities were determined for each event, with the highest given to Mt. Taranaki. Hazards considered were, for local events: tephra fall, scoria fall and ballistic impacts, lava flow, base surge and associated shock waves, tsunami, volcanic gases and acid rain, earthquakes and ground deformation, mudflows and mudfills, lightning and flooding; and for distal events: tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, poisonous gases and acid rain, mudflows and mudfills, climate variations and earthquakes. Hazards from each source were assigned values for likelihood, with the largest for tephra fall from all sources, earthquakes and ground deformation, lava flows, scoria fall and base surge for an Auckland eruption on land, and earthquakes and ground deformation from an Auckland eruption in the ocean. The largest values for extent were for tephra fall and climate variation from each of the distal centres. However, these parameters do not give a true indication of risk. In a companion paper the effect of each hazard is fully investigated and the risk ranking completed. 相似文献
903.
G. Gabert 《Mathematical Geology》1978,10(5):425-432
Based on the results of the Conference on Resource Assessment Techniques of IGCP Project 98 in Loen, Norway, 1976, the importance
of mineral and energy inventories is demonstrated by their long-term objectives which aim at the solution of problems of quantitative
and qualitative mineral and energy reserve and resource assessments, estimates of the exploration potential, supply analysis,
future land-use planning, and national mineral policy. Prior to establishing a mineral and energy inventory it is essential
to clearly define both the long-term and short-term objectives, because they control the scope of an inventory and determine
the approach to and the method of constructing the data base. Only then can questions be answered as to the kind of data required,
the advantages of regional-versus commodity-based inventories, the necessity of computer-processable data files, the availability
of a user-oriented data base management system, and the usefulness of conducting a pilot project. Examples are given for simple
and complex types of mineral and energy inventories. The “Mineral Deposit Inventory” of the Institute for Geosciences and
Natural Resources, Hannover, Federal Republic of Germany, serves mainly as an information and reference system, whereas the
mineral inventory of “Project Manitoba” of the Geological Survey of Canada forms the base for reserve and resource assessment
as well as land-use planning of that province. For developing and industrialized countries alike, mineral and energy inventories
are appropriate tools in planning new exploration activities and decisions on future national mineral policy. Used by the
Regional Mineral Resources Development Centers of ESCAP and ECA, the United Nations economic commissions in Asia and Africa,
these tools could be of great advantage and mutual benefit to the developing countries of those regions.
This paper was presented at the International Geological Correlation Program (IGCP) Project 98: “Standards for Computer Applications
in Resource Studies” held at Taita Hills, Kenya, November 8–15, 1977. 相似文献
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907.
城市桥梁震害预测方法的探讨 总被引:10,自引:2,他引:8
简要介绍了城市桥梁的六种震害预测方法。在确定采用哪种方法时,要根据桥梁的结构型式、桥墩材料、墩台高度、基础类型等因素来确定。在详细介绍了回归统计法的基础上,通过实际桥梁的震害与回归统计法的预测进行比较,检验了回归统计法的可靠性。 相似文献
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910.
Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources
at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes
based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures
is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an
appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and
levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations.
The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume.
The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type
gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable
volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency
distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.
相似文献
Emil D. AttanasiEmail: |