华清4#泉水溶气体百分含量合计的强震远场前兆特征

华清4#泉水溶气体百分含量合计(QB)的取值范围为100±5.按4舍5入法取整数值,将其分为11个区段.以年为单位,统计QB落在每个区段内的频次.频率分布直方图显示,在QB取值区间内,分区段频率呈近似正态分布.将落入QB频率最高的区段称为轴,将轴在不同区段上位置的变化称为轴漂.研究表明,QB在不同区段上轴的漂移,反映了区域应力场的不同状态.轴落入99区段上,反映的是区域应力场的增强,与远场M≥7.0地震及伴生中强地震、鄂尔多斯块体周边后继中强地震有很好的相关性;轴落入98区段上,反映的是区域应力场的相对稳定;轴落入97区段上,反映的是巨大地震后,区域应力场的调整及中强地震活动格局的变化.文中还阐述了99区段轴值与地震对应关系的几个特征.     

有限元与改进单纯形法联合编程技术在位移反分析中的应用

根据弹性地基梁法基本思想,考虑基坑分步开挖和逐级加撑的动态施工因素,通过有限元计算模拟基坑实际开挖过程。结合现场监测数据,采用位移反分析方法反演各土层m 值,并准确预测后续工况支护体的变形。采用有限元通用软件ANSYS内嵌的APDL语言编程建立支护体有限元计算模型,并应用数学软件MATLAB编制“改进单纯形法”优化程序,编写了接口程序,实现了MATLAB对ANSYS模型的实时循环调用和逐步寻优。武汉长江隧道武昌明挖段基坑工程算例证明,基于单纯形法的联合编程技术能方便、高效地被应用于支护体位移反分析预测中。建立了基于本工况预测下一工况或相邻断面的扩展型位移反分析预测模型,预测结果与实测结果拟合程度较高。     

地震活动性参数b值和年发生率的一种取值方法

介绍了一种将历史地震与现代小震统计结果相协调,去不可靠或不稳定数据段确定地震活动性参数ｂ值,以及通过不同震级下限地震频度的时间滑动分析,选取现今与历史相近,且具较高震级下限的统计结果,推算４级以上地震年发生度ｖ４的方法。计算给出了东南沿海地震带及其南带,北带的ｂ值和ｖ４值。     

The discard ban policy,economic trends and opportunities for the Portuguese fisheries sector

In this paper the discard ban policy within the Portuguese fisheries sector is discussed and the opportunities and impact in the fisheries economy that arise from sales of unwanted fish under the new landing obligation are evaluated. The decadal mean price of fish (€/kg, adjusted for inflation) rose from the 1940s until the 1970s, dropping thereafter. The yearly averaged economic income estimated for discards sales between 1969 and 2009 ranged from 419345€ to 2164379€. Discard ban sales could contribute from 10% to 53% of the total landed value and 9–34% of the total catches (landings + discards). Under a discard ban policy, the fishing sector with the largest economic contribution for total discards sales would be multispecies (54%), followed by trawl (26%) and seine (20%). On average, fishing sales contributed with 0.63% to gross domestic production (GDP) between 1938 and 2009. Discard sales can increase 1.07–1.46 times more than the fish landing contribution to GDP. After 1983 the average landings/imports economic ratio was 0.28:1, which means that fish imports surpassed landings economic value 3.57 fold. The discard ban policy can create economic opportunities in the national context thus helping to revitalize some specific fisheries sectors.     

规则波作用下台阶地形上墩柱绕流三维数值研究

利用Flow-3D建立三维数值波浪水槽,模拟波浪在不对称台阶地形上的传播。系统研究规则波作用下墩柱周围水流的流动特性,分析墩柱周围的瞬时速度场、涡量场以及KC值变化,不同相位时墩柱前、后水平流速分布情况。结果表明:波浪在台阶地形传播的过程中,墩柱迎水面的涡动结构不够明显;高涡量呈对称状聚集在墩柱的背水面,并形成一对旋转方向相反的涡结构;周期对KC值的影响比波高的影响要明显;墩柱迎水面水平方向流速变化较大,侧面水平流速变化最为剧烈,背面由于受到墩柱的掩护作用水平方向流速变化不大,在墩柱的正面和侧面竖向环流明显。     

1950～2000年黄河入海水沙的逐日变化及其影响因素

对 195 0～ 2 0 0 0年的 5 1年黄河经利津水文站入海的逐日水沙实测资料进行统计分析 ,展示了黄河入海水沙的极端情况 ,如洪峰和沙峰等逐渐变少到消失的过程及逐日入海水沙量的变化规律 ,并对其影响因素进行了初步分析。结果显示 :在黄河年均入海水沙锐减的背景下 ,2 0世纪 90年代日均流量 <5 0 0m3 /s的天数增加到了是 2 0世纪 5 0年代的 3倍多 ;>2 0 0 0m3 /s的洪季流量由初期频发至 1997年消失 ;>40 0 0m3 /s的洪峰流量自 1989年以后消失 ;>60 0 0m3 /s的洪峰流量从 1986年就不再发生。 >5 0 0t/s的日均输沙率 (4 3 .2× 10 6t/d的沙峰 )都出现在 1989年以前 ;>70 0t/s的日均输沙率 (60 .5× 10 6t/d的沙峰 )出现在 1977年以前 ;含沙量 >80kg/m3 的历时和可能产生异重流的含沙量天数都逐步减少。进入 2 0世纪 90年代以来基本不存在大洪灾及由沙峰造成的河口河道快速堆积而使河流改道现象 ,引起这些变化的因素除降雨外主要为流域耗水量不断增加及大中型水库的建成运用等 ,黄河入海水沙的这种锐减及水沙峰的极端情况都会对河口演变和河口区的生态环境产生重要的影响。     

基于滤波顾及起算数据误差的赫尔默特估计法

在参数和起算数据的先验统计性质已知时,提出了基于滤波的顾及起算数据误差的赫尔默特估计法。这种方法估计出了相对于起算数据基准的精度,既充分考虑了起算数据的影响又没有增加计算量,并且将平差计算与随机模型的赫尔估计同时进行,使数据处理过程更加完善。     

A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels

Sea-level return periods are estimated at 18 sites around the English Channel using: (i) the annual maxima method; (ii) the r-largest method; (iii) the joint probability method; and (iv) the revised joint probability method. Tests are undertaken to determine how sensitive these four methods are to three factors which may significantly influence the results; (a) the treatment of the long-term trends in extreme sea level; (b) the relative magnitudes of the tidal and non-tidal components of sea level; and (c) the frequency, length and completeness of the available data. Results show that unless sea-level records with lengths of at least 50 years are used, the way in which the long-term trends is handled in the different methods can lead to significant differences in the estimated return levels. The direct methods (i.e. methods i and ii) underestimate the long (> 20 years) period return levels when the astronomical tidal variations of sea level (relative to a mean of zero) are about twice that of the non-tidal variations. The performance of each of the four methods is assessed using prediction errors (the difference between the return periods of the observed maximum level at each site and the corresponding data range). Finally, return periods, estimated using the four methods, are compared with estimates from the spatial revised joint probability method along the UK south coast and are found to be significantly larger at most sites along this coast, due to the comparatively short records originally used to calibrate the model in this area. The revised joint probability method is found to have the lowest prediction errors at most sites analysed and this method is recommended for application wherever possible. However, no method can compensate for poor data.