多年冻土地区砂砾路面路堤临界高度数值分析

In permafrost regions of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, the critical embankment height must be considered in the process of the construction of highway, especially for the global climatic warming. In this paper, the two-dimensional numerical analysis for the critical embankment height (for gravel road surface and coarse-grained soil) has been performed by using thefinite element method. In the calculation, we think that the service life of the construction is at least 50 years. The mean annual air temperatures applied to the calculation model are -6.5 ℃, -6.0 ℃, -5.5 ℃, -5.0 ℃, -4.5 ℃ and -4.0 ℃, respectively, and the value of temperature rise are taken as 1.10℃ in the coming 50 years. The minimum embankment heights derived from the analysis are 0.85 m, 0.92 m, 1.01 m, 1.18 m, 1.60 m and 2.66 m for the different mean annual air temperatures and the maximum embankment heights are 7.68 m,7.55 m, 7.34 m, 7.00 m, 6.45 m and 5.85m, accordingly. On condition that the service life of embankment is 50 years, the critical value of the mean annual air temperature is -3.5 ℃. Namely, in the areas where the mean annual air temperature is higher than -3.5 ℃, the critical embankment height does not exist.     

O(T2)精度下椭球界面Dirichlet边值问题的积分解

研究了边界是参考椭球面的Laplace方程Dirichlet边值问题的求解，在O(ε4·T)精 度下给出了参考椭球界面上扰动重力位Dirichlet外问题的积分解式. 该结果理论上优于目 前常用的球近似下的积分解式，从而为研究物理大地测量中边值问题的求解提供了新的依据     

基于生态经济理论的生态需水计算方法研究

在简述生态需水研究现状的基础上,结合以可持续发展为基础的生态经济理论,提出了基于生态经济思想的生态需水概念,并进行了理论分析.根据生态经济领域中的生态价值理论,确定不同生态需水量条件下的生态价值,进而通过水资源的生态价值与经济价值之间的相互关系确定合适的生态需水量,并通过实例对该方法的具体步骤进行了说明,认为由该法所确定的生态需水量符合客观实际,可以作为生态建设过程中生态需水研究的方法之一.该法通过水资源将生态系统和经济系统联系在一起,对于研究可持续发展条件下的水资源利用有一定的现实意义.     

第二松花江流域水电厂综合中长期水文预报的分析研究

基于对第二松花江流域上游小山、松山、两江水电站中长期水文预报研究成果，论述了综合中长期水文预报的研究思路和定性预报、定量预报的分析研究方法。该研究通过2002年实践检验，具有较高的预报精度。     

月壤的物理和机械性质

月壤是在O2、水、风和生命活动都不存在的情况下，由陨石和微陨石撞击、宇宙射线和太阳风轰击、月表温差导致岩石热胀冷缩破碎等因素的共同作用下形成的。月壤独特的形成过程，加上独特的月表环境，使月壤在粒度分布、颗粒形态、颗粒比重、孔隙比和孔隙率、电性和电磁性质、压缩性、抗剪性、承载力等方面均与地球土壤存在较大差异，这些参数的平均值和最佳估计值，可以作为月表机械设计和操作、宇航员装备设计、月球着陆场选址的主要依据，对月球资源开发和利用以及月球基地建设具有极其重要的意义。     

某滑坡软弱夹层抗剪强度取值方法的研究

文章主要针对软弱夹层抗剪强度取值所存在的争议，通过对贵州新街子滑坡的软弱夹层分别选择比例极限、屈服极限及峰值作为剪应力值，采用最小二乘法获得比例抗剪强度、屈服抗剪强度和峰值抗剪强度。以参数选取中应用较为成熟的反分析方法推求力学性质参数c、φ值作为判据对以上3种参数进行比较。计算结果表明：本滑坡软弱夹层中由于含泥量较大，而且粘塑性较强，屈服抗剪强度和反分析得到的抗剪强度偏差最小，比例抗剪强度偏差最大，峰值抗剪强度居中。并以此3种抗剪强度进行天然状态下滑坡稳定性验算，结果表明选用比例极限抗剪强度与当前滑坡的地质现象不符，选用峰值极限抗剪强度安全储备较低，而选取屈服极限抗剪强度最为合理。用此参数进行设计，滑坡已经得到了良好的治理。在取值研究中认为采用试验与反分析相结合的方法确定滑坡稳定性计算参数是比较合理的。以上结论为滑坡中软弱夹层抗剪强度取值的选择提供了重要的依据。     

The use of the exponent K(q) function to delimit homogeneous regions in regional frequency analysis of extreme annual daily rainfall

The regional frequency analysis of extreme annual rainfall data is a useful methodology in hydrology to obtain certain quantile values when no long data series are available. The most crucial step in the analysis is the grouping of sites into homogeneous regions. This work presents a new grouping criterion based on some multifractal properties of rainfall data. For this purpose, a regional frequency analysis of extreme annual rainfall data from the Maule Region (Chile) has been performed. Daily rainfall data series of 53 available stations have been studied, and their empirical moments scaling exponent functions K(q) have been obtained. Two characteristics parameters of the K(q) functions (γ_max and K(0)) have been used to group the stations into three homogeneous regions. Only five sites have not been possible to include into any homogenous regions, being the local frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall the most appropriate method to be used at these locations. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of daily stream water temperatures with a Bayesian regression approach

Stream water temperature plays a significant role in aquatic ecosystems where it controls many important biological and physical processes. Reliable estimates of water temperature at the daily time step are critical in managing water resources. We developed a parsimonious piecewise Bayesian model for estimating daily stream water temperatures that account for temporal autocorrelation and both linear and nonlinear relationships with air temperature and discharge. The model was tested at 8 climatically different basins of the USA and at 34 sites within the mountainous Boise River Basin (Idaho, USA). The results show that the proposed model is robust with an average root mean square error of 1.25 °C and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.92 over a 2‐year period. Our approach can be used to predict historic daily stream water temperatures in any location using observed daily stream temperature and regional air temperature data.     

A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of the interannual variability of annual daily extreme water levels in the St Lawrence River and Lake Ontario from 1918 to 2010

We compared the interannual variability of annual daily maximum and minimum extreme water levels in Lake Ontario and the St Lawrence River (Sorel station) from 1918 to 2010, using several statistical tests. The interannual variability of annual daily maximum extreme water levels in Lake Ontario is characterized by a positive long‐term trend showing two shifts in mean (1929–1930 and 1942–1943) and a single shift in variance (in 1958–1959). In contrast, for the St Lawrence River, this interannual variability is characterized by a negative long‐term trend with a single shift in mean, which occurred in 1955–1956. As for annual daily minimum extreme water levels, their interannual variability shows no significant long‐term change in trend. However, for Lake Ontario, the interannual variability of these water levels shows two shifts in mean, which are synchronous with those for maximum water levels, and a single shift in variance, which occurred in 1965–1966. These changes in trend and stationarity (mean and variance) are thought to be due to factors both climatic (the Great Drought of the 1930s) and human (digging of the Seaway and construction of several dams and locks during the 1950s). Despite this change in means and variance, the four series are clearly described by the generalized extreme value distribution. Finally, annual daily maximum and minimum extreme water levels in the St Lawrence and Lake Ontario are negatively correlated with Atlantic multidecadal oscillation over the period from 1918 to 2010. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.