Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland

Abstract

Discharge in the Warta River in Poland has been analysed based on long series of measurements at the Gorzów Wielkopolski gauge station (covering the whole catchment area) and at Poznań (middle and upper catchment area), and the Note? River is characterized by the gauge station at Nowe Drezdenko. The annual mean discharge of the Warta River for the period 1981–2010 was equal to the average value for the last 163 years (209 m³ s^-1), and there was no significant change in comparison with the ratio of runoff in the summer and winter half-years. In the driest region of Poland, the climate has been described on the basis of precipitation and air temperature. The annual mean precipitation for 1981–2010 (544 mm) in the Warta River catchment area was the same as that for the period 1848–2010. The precipitation has been increasing in spring and winter, and decreasing in summer. There is a positive and very significant correlation (r = 0.705) between the annual discharge and annual precipitation totals. The annual mean air temperature has risen by 0.6°C between the periods 1848–1980 and 1981–2010.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Ilnicki, P., Farat, R., Górecki, K., and Lewandowski, P., 2014. Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (6), 1117–1134. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.831979     

长春台体应变仪器观测到的地球基频球型振荡

本文分析了2004年12月26日苏门答腊M9．0级大地震后5天的长春台体应变观测资料,利用功率谱密度估计方法,在没有对资料进行去固体潮处理的情况下,较准确地获得了大地震激发的基频球型振荡,并与地球初步参考模型（PREM）的理论自由振荡频率进行了对比,发现实测振荡频率与PREM预测的振荡频率基本符合。     

检波器尾锥与地表耦合阻尼研究

结合检波器与松散地表耦合的实际,设计了双自由度耦合模型,从理论上分析了检波器与地表耦合系统的特性,并结合野外实验定性地分析了在不同表土情况下,检波器尾锥与地表耦合系统中尾锥与地表之间的阻尼变化时对耦合系统特性及地震资料的影响,揭示了合理的选择检波器尾锥与地表之间的阻尼在地震信号采集中的意义。     

中国雨季的气候学特征

利用全国740站日降水资料,采用多种统计学方法,对两湖流域雨季降水特征进行了分析。结果表明：(1)两湖流域年降水序列可分为5个阶段,其中主雨季从4月的第2候开始,持续到7月的第1候。两湖流域雨季较江淮梅雨来得早,持续的时间长。(2)雨季内以出现2个和3个主雨期模态的可能性较大。其中2个主雨期一般出现在5月上、中旬及6月中、下旬,这种模态在上世纪60年代、90年代表现明显;3个主雨期一般出现在4月中旬、5月中下旬到6月初与6月下旬至7月初,该模态在20世纪60年代后期至70年初、80年代中后期表现明显。(3)两湖流域雨季内降水的准双周(10~20 d)、30~60 d低频振荡现象明显。准双周振动在雨季中表现为5个波动,30~60 d振荡表现为3个完整的波动,波峰分别出现4月上旬、5月上旬及6月中旬,与其降水主模态有较好的对应关系。

     

Climatic changes have led to significant expansion of endorheic lakes in Xizang (Tibet) since 1995

Robust climate warming has led to significant expansion of lakes in the central Tibetan Plateau. Using remote sensing data, our quantitative analysis indicates that Siling Co, a saline lake in a characteristic endorheic basin in the central region of the Plateau, has expanded more than 600 km² in area since 1976. Particularly since 1995, the lake has significantly expanded in response to increasing precipitation, decreasing water surface evaporation caused by weaker winds and less solar radiation, and increased glacier meltwater draining to the lake. Glacier–lake interactions are important in governing lake expansion and are also part of a feedback loop that influences the local climate. Worsening climatic conditions (decreased precipitation and increased temperatures) that could have caused the lake to shrink during 1976–1994 were offset by increasing glacier meltwater feeding the lake, which made the lake nearly stable. We demonstrate that this pattern changed during 1995–2009, when glacier meltwater actually decreased but participation runoff increased and evaporation decreased, leading to expansion of the lake. If climatic conditions became suitable for further lake development, which would be indicated by expansion in lake area, glacier meltwater could be saved in a stable reservoir.     

地震和潮汐对气候波动变化的影响

2004年12月26日印尼地震海啸后,全球低温冻害和暴雪灾害频繁发生."潮汐调温说"和"深海巨震降温说"是一种合理的解释.根据"潮汐调温说"和"深海巨震降温说"理论,2005年以后全球气温将因为地震海啸和强潮汐南北震荡而降低.2009年11月至2010年1月低温暴雪袭击北半球,西方科学家也承认2000~2010年气候的自然变化减缓全球气候变暖效应这一客观事实.潮汐震荡可以解释全球气温的准60a变化,海洋及其边缘的强震能够将深海冷水翻上表面,使全球气候变冷.潮汐和太阳黑子活动不仅有相同的变化周期,而且都和气温变化有很好的对应关系.研究表明,在太平洋十年涛动冷位相时期,强震与低温冻害频繁发生.     

近36年新疆天山山区气候暖湿变化及其特征分析

根据天山山区10个气象台站1971-2006年的历史气候资料,采用线性回归、最大熵谱、Mann-Kendall和自然正交分解(EOF)等方法,对近36年的年平均气温、降水量、最大可能蒸散量和下垫面湿润指数等气候要素的基本变化特征进行了分析,结果表明:(1) 近36年天山山区年平均气温呈升高趋势,降水量呈增多趋势,年最大可能蒸散量呈减少趋势,下垫面湿润指数呈增大趋势.受其综合影响,近36年天山山区气候呈较明显的暖湿化变化趋势. (2) 突变检测表明,天山山区年平均气温在1976年发生了突变性的升高,降水量和湿润指数在1986年发生了突变性的增大,而最大可能蒸散量在1986年发生了突变性的减小.(3) 36年里,降水量和湿润指数的变化不存在＜36年的显著周期,而温度变化具有＞36年、9年、4年和2.4年的显著周期,最大可能蒸散量变化具有＞36年、5.1年和2.4年的显著周期.(4) 10站的年平均气温、降水量、最大可能蒸散量和湿润指数等四要素的最主要空间分布特征均是同向变化.     

最优气候相似法及其在降水预报中的应用

介绍了一种短期气候预测方法———最优气候相似法 ,并应用于张家界地区 1 999～ 2 0 0 2年 5～ 7月总降水预报中 ,结果显示最优气候相似法能够有效地提高短期气候的预测能力 ,特别对气候异常具有良好的反应能力 ,适合于短期气候业务预报。     

Geomorphological controls on fluvial carbon storage in headwater peatlands

Geomorphological controls and catchment sediment characteristics control the formation of floodplains and affect their capacity to sequester carbon. Organic carbon stored in floodplains is typically a product of pedogenic development between periods of mineral sediment deposition. However, in organically-dominated upland catchments with a high sediment load, eroded particulate organics may also be fluvially deposited with potential for storage and/or oxidation. Understanding the redistribution of terrestrial carbon laterally, beyond the bounds of river channels is important, especially in eroding peatland systems where fluvial particulate organic carbon exports are often assumed to be oxidised. Floodplains have the potential to be both carbon cycling hotspots and areas of sequestration. Understanding of the interaction of carbon cycling and the sediment cascade through floodplain systems is limited. This paper examines the formation of highly organic floodplains downstream of heavily eroded peatlands in the Peak District, UK. Reconstruction of the history of the floodplains suggests that they have formed in response to periods of erosion of organic soils upstream. We present a novel approach to calculating a carbon stock within a floodplain, using XRF and radiograph data recorded during Itrax core scanning of sediment cores. This carbon stock is extrapolated to the catchment scale, to assess the importance of these floodplains in the storage and cycling of organic carbon in this area. The carbon stock estimate for the floodplains across the contributing catchments is between 3482-13460 tonnes, equating on an annualised basis to 0.8-4.5% of the modern-day POC flux. Radiocarbon analyses of bulk organic matter in floodplain sediments revealed that a substantial proportion of organic carbon was associated with re-deposited peat and has been used as a tool for organic matter source determination. The average age of these samples (3010 years BP) is substantially older than Infrared Stimulated Luminesence dating which demonstrated that the floodplains formed between 430 and 1060 years ago. Our data suggest that floodplains are an integral part of eroding peatland systems, acting as both significant stores of aged and eroded organic carbon and as hotspots of carbon turnover. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

多窗谱分析方法及其在全球变暖研究中的应用

多窗谱分析方法是一种低方差、高分辨的谱分析方法 ,尤其适合于非线性气候系统中高噪声背景下弱信号、时频演变信号的诊断分析。文中简要地介绍了多窗谱分析方法的基本原理 ,并将其用于近 1 5 0 a来全球及南、北半球温度变化的研究。结果表明 :(1 )在温度呈线性变暖的背景趋势下 ,北半球、全球年平均温度还具有显著的 40～ 70 a的准周期低频振荡 ,它们与变暖过程中的波动性密切相关 ;(2 )年代际振荡信号在北半球温度序列中也相当明显 ,南半球则存在多种低于 5 a尺度的显著振荡周期 ,半球或全球 ENSO振荡分量、QBO周期信号的振幅都具有缓变包络的特性 ;(3 )与传统功率谱估计、最大熵谱估计结果的对比表明 ,多窗谱分析方法方法得到的谱估计分辨力高 ,稳定性强。