Intensity–duration–frequency curves exploiting neighbouring extreme precipitation data

ABSTRACT

Records of precipitation extremes are essential for hydrological design. In urban hydrology, intensity–duration–frequency curves are typically estimated from observation records. However, conventional approaches seldom consider the areal extent of events. If they do, duration-dependent area reduction factors are used, but precipitation is measured at only a few locations. Due to the high spatial variability of precipitation, it is relatively unlikely that a gauged observation network will capture the extremes that occur during a precipitation event. Therefore, the area reduction approach cannot be regarded as the reduction of an observed maximum. To investigate precipitation extremes, spatial aspects need to be considered using different approaches. Here, we both address the conventional practice of area reduction and consider a within-area chance of increased precipitation, defined as the maximum precipitation intensity observed in a cluster within a selected domain. The results show that (1) the risk of urban flooding is routinely underestimated in current design practice, and (2) traditional calculations underestimate extremes by as much as 30–50%. We show how they can be revised sensibly.     

Reconstruction of a flash flood with large wood transport and its influence on hazard patterns in an ungauged mountain basin

The reconstruction of past flash floods in ungauged basins leads to a high level of uncertainty, which increases if other processes are involved such as the transport of large wood material. An important flash flood occurred in 1997 in Venero Claro (Central Spain), causing significant economic losses. The wood material clogged bridge sections, raising the water level upstream. The aim of this study was to reconstruct this event, analysing the influence of woody debris transport on the flood hazard pattern. Because the reach in question was affected by backwater effects due to bridge clogging, using only high water mark or palaeostage indicators may overestimate discharges, and so other methods are required to estimate peak flows. Therefore, the peak discharge was estimated (123 ± 18 m³ s^–1) using indirect methods, but one‐dimensional hydraulic simulation was also used to validate these indirect estimates through an iterative process (127 ± 33 m³ s^–1) and reconstruct the bridge obstruction to obtain the blockage ratio during the 1997 event (~48%) and the bridge clogging curves. Rainfall–Runoff modelling with stochastic simulation of different rainfall field configurations also helped to confirm that a peak discharge greater than 150 m³ s^–1 is very unlikely to occur and that the estimated discharge range is consistent with the estimated rainfall amount (233 ± 27 mm). It was observed that the backwater effect due to the obstruction (water level ~7 m) made the 1997 flood (~35‐year return period) equivalent to the 50‐year flood. This allowed the equivalent return period to be defined as the recurrence interval of an event of specified magnitude, which, where large woody debris is present, is equivalent in water depth and extent of flooded area to a more extreme event of greater magnitude. These results highlight the need to include obstruction phenomena in flood hazard analysis. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental determinants of leech assemblage patterns in lotic and lenitic habitats

Leeches (Clitellata: Hirudinida) are abundant predators or ecto-parasites inhabiting various freshwater habitats; however many biotic and abiotic drivers of their assemblage patterns have been deduced rather than directly tested. To study species richness and composition changes in leech assemblages, 109 sites of running and stagnant water bodies were sampled in three regions of the Czech Republic in 2007–2010, together with several explanatory variables that are known or expected to be important predictors of leech distribution. In total, 17 species of leeches were recorded, varying between 0–7 and 0–9 species in lotic and lenitic sites, respectively. These differences in species richness of lotic and lenitic sites were highly significant, contrary to the abundances, which varied between 0–283 and 0–295 individuals. The main change in species composition was controlled by water temperature and morphological characteristics (e.g. substrate and cover of macrophytes), mostly reflecting the differences between lotic and lenitic habitats. We found the density of benthos (i.e. prey availability) to be the best predictor of species composition in both lotic and lenitic sites, together with the percentage of canopy cover. However, the other significant predictors (i.e. the substrate and water conductivity found to be significant in lotic sites, and the mean annual temperature and PO₄^3? in lenitic sites), differed between these habitats. Other than mean annual temperature and water temperature, which had different effects on species richness in lotic and lenitic sites, there were no other differences between lotic and lenitic sites in terms of how species richness and abundance responded to all other analyzed predictors. Our results stress the importance of prey availability and canopy for leech distribution patterns. Differences in the significant predictors of leech assemblage patterns between lotic and lenitic sites raise fundamental questions about the underlying mechanisms and ecological constraints to leech distribution in these main types of aquatic systems.     

Development of FLEMOcs – a new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector

Abstract

The estimation of flood damage is an important component for risk-oriented flood design, risk mapping, financial appraisals and comparative risk analyses. However, research on flood-loss modelling, especially in the commercial sector, has not gained much attention so far. Therefore, extensive data about flood losses were collected for affected companies via telephone surveys after the floods of 2002, 2005 and 2006 in Germany. Potential loss determining factors were analysed. The new Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) was developed on the basis of 642 loss cases. Losses are estimated depending on water depth, sector and company size as well as precaution and contamination. The model can be applied to the micro-scale, i.e. to single production sites as well as to the meso-scale, i.e. land-use units, thus enabling its countrywide application.

Citation Kreibich, H., Seifert, I., Merz, B. & Thieken, A. H. (2010) Development of FLEMOcs – a new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1302–1314.     

Application and validation of FLEMOcs – a flood-loss estimation model for the commercial sector

Abstract

The estimation of flood loss is difficult, especially in the commercial sector, because of its great inhomogeneity. However, the reliability of loss modelling is fairly unknown, since flood-loss models are scarcely validated. The newly developed Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) was validated on the micro-scale using a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure. Additionally, different meso-scale loss functions were compared. Meso-scale model application was undertaken in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood in Germany. Model results were compared with the results of three other loss models, as well as with official loss records. The micro-scale validation shows very good results, with no bias and mean absolute errors between 23 and 31%. The meso-scale validation indicates that FLEMOcs provides good results, especially in large areas with many affected companies where high losses are expected.

Citation Seifert, I., Kreibich, H., Merz, B. & Thieken, A. H. (2010) Application and validation of FLEMOcs – a flood-loss estimation model for the commercial sector. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1315–1324.     

Assessment of sediment yield estimations for large watershed areas: a case study for the Seyhan,Demirköprü and Hirfanlı reservoirs in Turkey

Abstract

Analyses of data from reservoir surveys and sediment rating curves are compared to predict sediment yield in three large reservoir watershed areas in Turkey. Sediment yield data were derived from reservoir sedimentation rates and suspended sediment measurements at gauging stations. The survey data were analysed to provide the volume estimates of sediment, the time-averaged sediment deposition rates, the long-term average annual loss rates in the reservoir storage capacity, and the long-term sediment yield of the corresponding watershed areas. Four regression methods, including linear and nonlinear cases, were applied to rating curves obtained from gauging stations. Application of the efficiency test to a power function form of a rating curve with nonlinear regression yielded the highest efficiency values. Based on the analysis of the sediment rating curves, sediment load fluxes were calculated by using average daily discharge data at each gauging station. Comparison of these two sediment yield values for each reservoir showed that the sediment yields from the suspended sediment measurements, SY_GS, are 0.99 to 3.54 times less than those obtained from the reservoir surveys, SY_RS. The results from the reservoir surveys indicate that all three reservoirs investigated have lost significant storage capacity due to high sedimentation rates.     

Finite element analysis and fragility curves for the evaluation of restoration mortars behavior regarding the earthquake protection of historic structures

The target of this study is the evaluation of repair mortar contribution to the dynamic behavior of Kaisariani Monastery in Athens, by using the tools of finite element analysis and fragility curves. Three types of mortars (concrete) are designed in order to simulate the Hagia Sophia historic mortar, by using different binding material: lime/metakaolin, hydraulic lime, lime/cement. In the developed model the mechanical characteristics of the designed mortars are used. In addition, fragility curves were developed and their results indicated that for the current situation of Kaisariani Monastery and for peak ground acceleration (PGA) value ≥0.24 g, the probability of occurrence of serious damage is 59%. For PGA=0.36 g an overall failure happened. For PGA=0.40 and by using restoration mortar up to 15% of the total bed joint the failure percentage reduces in the range of 12–30%. Better protection is reported for lime/cement mix design followed by hydraulic lime and lime/metakaolin.     

Horizontal rough fracture type curves for groundwater movement

Abstract

Type curves are derived analytically for radial flow in rough horizontal fractures toward a well. The basic assumptions are that there is no turbulent flow near the borehole and the well storage is ignored. The basis of the methodology is to write explicit expressions for the continuity and cubic law flow equations, which are combined using a Boltzmann transformation leading to a simple ordinary differential equation for groundwater movement. Solutions are presented as a set of type curves for different fracture apertures. It is observed that the solutions provide a method of uniquely identifying fracture hydraulic parameters when the fracture is smooth, but pose ambiguity for rough fracture parameter estimations. However, large time portions of these type curves appear as straight lines on semi-logarithmic paper, which provides a unique way for rough fracture parameter determination. Identification of the fracture parameters, namely, the aperture and relative roughness, is possible in a unique manner with the use of these lines and the dimensionless time drawdown concept. The cubic law is the asymptotic behaviour, either for large times or large fracture apertures. Prior to this asymptotic part, there is a non-cubic portion which gives rise to systematic deviations from the cubic law. The technique presented is useful, especially for evaluating pumping tests from a single major fracture isolated by packers.     

半刚接框架-斜加劲钢板剪力墙低周反复荷载试验研究

对一榀单跨两层半刚接框架-斜加劲钢板剪力墙结构进行了低周反复荷载试验,分析结构破坏模式和耗能机理,得到了承载力、延性、刚度、耗能能力等指标.结果表明:该种结构具有良好的延性和耗能性能,安全储备高;半刚框架和墙板协同工作良好;斜加劲肋的设置缓解了钢板沿拉力带方向的面外变形,提高了墙体的弹性屈曲倚载及初始刚度,减轻了滞回曲...