基于动库容曲线的水库调洪高水位查算方法研究

河道型水库因动库容特性显著,传统的静库容调洪方法难以适用,研究动库容调洪方法是亟待解决的问题。当坝前水位爬升到最高点时,库区内的洪水演进到达一种临界状态,库区内的水文、水力条件相对稳定,在出库流量和入库流量一定的情况下,可望获得最高坝前水位与同时刻库容之间良好的对应关系。依托三峡库区水文水动力耦合预报模型,建立了一组以出库流量、入库流量为参数的动库容曲线,以供调洪时快速查算最高坝前水位。采用2009年以来三峡水库16场场次洪水资料,检验所建动库容曲线的合理性。结果表明,各场洪水的最高库水位查算值与实况平均偏差仅0.20m,证明建立的基于动库容曲线的三峡水库最高库水位查算方法具有较好的实践价值。     

基于云推理的年降水量预测

预测未来年的降水量是对旱情做出预警并采取合理抗旱措施的重要前提,但如何获得准确的预测值一直是研究的热点。降水随时间的变化通常具有随机性和模糊性,而云模型是在传统模糊数学和概率统计的基础上建立起来的,能够实现不确定概念与定量数值之间的自然转化,通过年降水量历史数据及当前趋势挖掘并制定出相应规则,从而推理获得未来年份的降水量。在此基础上,提出了基于小波消噪预处理和理论频率曲线修正的云推理预测模型,并将其运用到了西安市年降水量的预测当中。从所得结果来看,降水量预测值能较好的反映其年际变化规律,模型预测精度得到了很大提高,基本可将误差控制在30%以内。     

Bivariate simulation using copula and its application to probabilistic pile settlement analysis

This paper aims to propose a procedure for modeling the joint probability distribution of bivariate uncertain data with a nonlinear dependence structure. First, the concept of dependence measures is briefly introduced. Then, both the Akaike Information Criterion and the Bayesian Information Criterion are adopted for identifying the best‐fit copula. Thereafter, simulation of copulas and bivariate distributions based on Monte Carlo simulation are presented. Practical application for serviceability limit state reliability analysis of piles is conducted. Finally, four load–test datasets of load–displacement curves of piles are used to illustrate the proposed procedure. The results indicate that the proposed copula‐based procedure can model and simulate the bivariate probability distribution of two curve‐fitting parameters underlying the load–displacement models of piles in a more general way. The simulated load–displacement curves using the proposed procedure are found to be in good agreement with the measured results. In most cases, the Gaussian copula, often adopted out of expedience without proper validation, is not the best‐fit copula for modeling the dependence structure underlying two curve‐fitting parameters. The conditional probability density functions obtained from the Gaussian copula differ considerably from those obtained from the best‐fit copula. The probabilities of failure associated with the Gaussian copula are significantly smaller than the reference solutions, which are very unconservative for pile safety assessment. If the strong negative correlation between the two curve‐fitting parameters is ignored, the scatter in the measured load–displacement curves cannot be simulated properly, and the probabilities of failure will be highly overestimated. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Suspended solid yield from forest harvesting on upland blanket peat

Forest harvesting activities, if not carefully carried out, can disturb the forest soils and can cause significant suspended solid concentration increases in receiving water. This study examined how harvesting, following forestry guidelines, influenced suspended solid concentrations and loads in the receiving water of a blanket peat salmonid catchment. The study site comprised of two forest coupes of 34‐year‐old conifers drained by a first‐order stream. The upper coupe was not felled and acted as a baseline ‘control’ catchment; the downstream coupe was completely harvested in summer 2005 and served as the ‘experimental’ catchment. Good management practices such as the proper use of brash mats and harvesting only in dry weather were implemented to minimize soil surface disturbance and streambank erosion. Stream flow and suspended solid measurements at an upstream station (US) and a downstream station (DS) in the study stream commenced over a year before felling took place. The suspended solid concentrations, yields and release patterns at US and DS were compared before and after harvesting. These showed that post‐guideline harvesting of upland blanket peat forest did not significantly increase the suspended solid concentrations in the receiving water and the aquatic zone need not be adversely affected by soil releases from sites without a buffer strip. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

静力弹塑性分析(Pushover Analysis)在多跨简支梁桥中的应用

阐述了静力弹塑性分析的基本原理与过程,介绍了该方法在桥梁工程中的应用与实践状况,并且结合一座6孔简支梁桥的抗震性能评估的工程实例,采用pushover方法对全桥模型进行了抗震性能的分析计算,结果表明该桥梁满足设防烈度下的抗震要求,同时也指出了采用pushover方法时应该注意计算模型和加载模式的选择等问题,为静力弹塑性分析方法在桥梁工程中的应用提供了参考.     

含软弱夹层土样变形破坏过程细观数值模拟及分析

基于颗粒流理论,引入接触连接模型和滑动模型,建立了含软弱夹层试样的颗粒流模型。通过颗粒流程序(PFC)数值模型试验,对含软弱夹层试样的强度和破坏发展进行了数值模拟,分别对比了不同围压以及不同夹层参数条件下的应力-应变关系曲线,通过位移矢量场分析了破坏发展趋势。模拟结果表明,一般围压条件下试样沿软弱夹层滑动破坏,但在某特定围压下,软弱夹层的存在并不起主要控制作用;试样应力-应变关系曲线峰值随软弱夹层颗粒的摩擦系数和法向接触刚度的减小而下降,当颗粒法向接触刚度趋近0时,试样加载初始阶段呈现塑性流变特征;夹层颗粒的切向接触刚度只有低于某一特定值时才会使试样应力-应变关系曲线峰值降低。通过分析,得到了土体颗粒细观参数和宏观力学行为的内在联系,并对土体软弱夹层力学性质和渐进破坏过程有了更进一步的认识。     

吸力对弱膨胀土强度贡献的试验研究与预测分析

对部分应用土-水特征曲线来预测非饱和土抗剪强度的公式进行了归纳分析。应用压力板仪与非饱和三轴仪,测试了荆门原状弱膨胀土的土-水特征曲线和控制吸力的非饱和三轴抗剪强度参数,并将试验结果与各抗剪强度公式的预测值进行对比,分析了各强度公式的局限性。试验结果表明,非饱和原状膨胀土的净法向应力摩擦角随着吸力的不同而变化,根据双应力变量理论确定的吸力对强度的贡献与围压有关,不同围压下吸力对强度的贡献不同,表观凝聚力 与吸力间符合乘幂函数关系。     

长江口及邻近海域现代沉积物中正构烷烃分子组合特征及其对有机碳运移分布的指示

报道了长江口及邻近海域现代沉积物中正构烷烃的浓度及分布特征,通过因子分析法对正构烷烃来源进行了探讨.结果表明,调查站位正构烷烃主要可归纳为3种类型:陆源输入优势型(单峰群)、陆源和海洋内生混合类型(双峰群)和石油类污染类型(单峰型,不具奇偶优势).长江口邻近站位正构烷烃色谱指标的突变,是长江河口区2种不同水团造成沉积物差异的客观反映.除P4外,研究站位总正构烷烃含量(∑n-Alk)与有机碳总量(TOC)相关性良好,且长江口东南-浙江沿岸软泥区正构烷烃的陆源高等植物组分(TER-Alk)、海洋内生组分(PL-1)、奇偶碳优势指数(CPI)等指标与运移距离呈线形关系.在因子分析显示不同来源的4种正购烷烃中,以陆源烷烃输入比重最大(51.5%),在陆源烷烃中又以东海河流物质贡献最大(49.1%);根据因子负荷差异,推测东海北部沉积有机质可能多数来源于苏北沿岸及老黄河口水下三角洲,冲绳海槽区则可能大部分来源于长江及东海内陆架物质,并探讨了其运移机理.     

软土路基沉降变权重组合S型曲线预测方法研究

通过对软土路基沉降发展规律及其沉降曲线特点进行深入研究,在S型单项预测模型基础上,基于5种S型增长曲线模型,引进组合预测的思想,重点探讨了软土路基沉降发展的预测方法与理论,并建立了软土路基沉降预测的变权重组合S型增长模型,通过数学规划方法求解,从而可根据有限的实测沉降观测数据预测软土路基沉降发展过程。工程实例分析表明,利用该模型与方法得到的预测曲线与实测曲线吻合良好,能够满足工程要求,此外,变权重组合预测模型比其它单项模型具有明显的优越性,为软土路基沉降发展预测提供了一种有效而实用的方法。     

剪切带图案的复杂性及应力-应变曲线的离散性

在平面应变压缩条件下,通过在岩样左边界靠近下端面的位置及右边界的不同位置预制材料缺陷,采用拉格朗日元法研究了材料缺陷位置不同时的剪切带图案启动、演变及试样的宏观力学行为。在数值计算中,采用了莫尔-库仑与拉破坏复合的破坏准则,峰后岩石的本构关系为线性应变软化。当试样左、右边界上的缺陷距离较远时,剪切带仅出现1条,以通过两缺陷形式贯通试样两边界;当两缺陷距离较近时,启动于缺陷附近的剪切带按各自其固有方向发展,剪切带图案十分复杂。当右缺陷距离试样上端面较近时,由于上端面的约束,仅位于缺陷下方的剪切带能得到充分的发展。若剪切带数量较少且贯通试样两边界时,试样发生脆性剪切破坏,应力-变形曲线软化段比较陡峭;反之,发生韧性剪切破坏,软化段比较平缓。当剪切带的前端迎面遇到试样上、下端面附近的上、下三角形区域时,由于端面的约束,剪切带的方向将改变。当剪切带的前端与试样的纵向对称线距离较近时,剪切带发生折射现象;当距离较远时,剪切带将发生反射现象。