强降雨下基于Green-Ampt模型的边坡稳定性分析

降雨入渗分析方法直接影响降雨型滑坡的预测与防范。Green-Ampt(GA)模型物理意义明确、参数较少,在降雨型滑坡分析中逐渐得到了重视,但该方法忽略了湿润层非饱和层的存在以及饱和层渗流而影响计算精度。针对以上不足,基于GA模型,建立了适用于边坡并且能综合考虑湿润层土体含水率分布情况与饱和层内平行于坡面渗流作用的降雨入渗分析(LSGA)模型,并提出了该模型下边坡稳定性系数表达式。结果表明:对于不考虑分层的无限长边坡,LSGA模型可简化为GA模型,说明GA模型是LSGA模型的一个特例;与LSGA模型相比,GA模型在失稳深度和时间上有较大延缓;饱和层渗流作用对湿润层特性影响较小,对边坡稳定性影响较大;相反,坡体长度方向尺寸效应则对湿润层特性影响明显,而对边坡稳定性影响较小;利用LSGA模型和稳定性评价方法得到的结果与模型试验揭示的现象基本吻合,证明了该方法有较好的精确性和可靠性。     

地壳波浪状镶嵌构造学说撮要

本文阐发了波浪状镶嵌构造学说的要义。在对学说的创立和发展做了简要的回顾之后,着重阐述了学说发展的现状,并对其今后发展的广阔前景及有待解决的问题也进行了概略的讨论。     

同时检测监测网的异常形变和粗差

粗差干扰影响形变分析成果的质量，以往都是粗差与异常变形分开来检测，即对每一期观测锡除粗差后再进行平差，然后利用两期或多期平差结果进行形变分析，这两步是重复的，为此，从位移观测方程入手，根据粗差检测与异常形变检测相似的特点，提出将粗差与异常形变同时检测，根据二者的不同特点，将它们区分开的新思路。通过算例分析比较了拟准检定法、假设检验法及相关抗差估计方案的检测效果，结果表明拟准检定法具有比其它两种方法实施简单、定位准确的优点，同时验证了这种思路的可行性。     

基于统计信息的低反差道路半自动提取方法

从实际应用的角度,采用基于统计信息的低反差半自动道路提取方法,提取了高分辨率遥感影像中道路特征分析时经常被忽略的、目标与背景反差较小的道路段;并在高层的知识处理后,将结果返回中层及底层进行了进一步验证。     

中更新世气候转型与100ka周期研究

中更新世气候转型是第四纪气候变化中最重要的特征之一，它是指全球气候的主导周期在中更新世时从41ka转变为100ka，且气候波动的幅度也加大。经典的Milankovitch假说不能完全解释中更新世气候转型的原因以及100ka周期在气候记录中的强烈表现，因为太阳辐射与气候记录之间存在着相当的差异，尤其是二者在变化幅度上不匹配。近年来围绕这一转型过程的时代和原因获得了一些新的进展，主要是针对中更新世气候转型的时间、对气候记录中100ka周期的重新检讨以及非太阳辐射因素在这一转型过程中所起的作用。其它可能的转型原因包括大冰盖、温室气体、地球轨道面倾角、冰盖基底、构造隆升等。     

Understanding hydrological trends by combining the Budyko hypothesis and a stochastic soil moisture model

Abstract

The actual evapotranspiration and runoff trends of five major basins in China from 1956 to 2000 are investigated by combining the Budyko hypothesis and a stochastic soil moisture model. Based on the equations of Choudhury and Porporato, the actual evapotranspiration trends and the runoff trends are attributed to changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, rainfall depth and water storage capacity which depends on the soil water holding capacity and the root depth. It was found that the rainfall depth increased significantly in China during the past 50 years, especially in southern basins. Contributions from changes in the water storage capacity were significant in basins where land surface characteristics have changed substantially due to human activities. It was also observed that the actual evapotranspiration trends are more sensitive to precipitation trends in water-limited basins, but more sensitive to potential evapotranspiration trends in energy-limited basins.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Porporato     

引力作用下的平衡质量运动

根据广义相对论,在天体引力作用下,天体周边的空间是曲折的。空间因天体的引力而发生曲折,地球在引力的作用下也与人类之前所认识的有所不同。本文提出一种新的假设一引力作用下的平衡质量运动理论,试图从思维的角度重新思考和探索地球的运动规律。主要讨论三个问题：地球上质量的分布;地球的运动;地球自转的速度。由地球上海陆质量的分布引出假设一引力作用下的平衡质量运动理论,其次,利用该假设对地球火山、地震和自转进行分析与推导。     

基于广义SMP准则及应力路径法的柱孔扩张分析

柱孔扩张理论广泛用于旁压试验机制分析、沉桩挤土效应等岩土工程问题中。基于经典的Vesic孔扩张理论,采用能够考虑中主应力效应的广义SMP屈服准则,并结合有限应变理论对均质土体中柱孔扩张问题进行分析,根据应力路径假设提出确定塑性区平均体应变的解析步骤。通过大量变参数计算给出具有不同刚度指标 、泊松比 和内摩擦角 的土中柱孔扩张极限状态下的塑性区平均体应变、孔扩张半径比和孔扩张系数。分析结果表明, 、 、 越大,塑性区平均体应变越小,塑性区半径比越大,孔扩张系数越大;随着 增加, 的变化对孔扩张系数的影响更显著。同时,将结果与基于Mohr-Coulomb准则的孔扩张解答进行比较,探讨不同土性参数时中主应力效应对孔扩张系数的影响。文中分析方法及给出的考虑中主应力效应的柱孔扩张系数表可为原位试验分析及桩侧摩阻力估算提供参考。     

Shelf currents,lee-trapped and transient eddies on the inshore boundary of the Agulhas Current,South Africa: their relevance to the KwaZulu-Natal sardine run

The existence and strength of the annual KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) sardine run has long been a conundrum to fishers and scientists alike ― particularly that the sardine Sardinops sagax migrate along the narrow Transkei shelf against the powerful, warm Agulhas Current. However, examination of ship-borne acoustic Doppler current profiler (S–ADCP) data collected during two research surveys in 2005 indicated that northward-flowing coastal countercurrents exist at times between the Agulhas Bank and the KZN Bight, near Port Alfred, East London, Port St Johns and Durban. The countercurrent near Port Alfred extended as far east as the Keiskamma River, within an upwelling zone known to exist there. An ADCP mooring at a depth of 32 m off Port Alfred indicated that the countercurrent typically lasted a few days, but at times remained in the same direction for as long as 10 days. Velocities ranged between 20 and 60 cm s^?1 with maximum values of ～80 cm s^?1. The S–ADCP data also highlighted the existence of cyclonic flow in the Port St Johns–Waterfall Bluff coastal inset, with a northward coastal current similarly ranging in velocity between 20 and 60 cm s^?1. CTD data indicated that this was associated with shelf-edge upwelling, with surface temperatures 2–4 °C cooler than the adjacent core temperature (24–26 °C) of the Agulhas Current. Vertical profiles of the S–ADCP data showed that the countercurrent, about 7 km wide, extends down the slope to at least 600 m, where it appeared to link with the deep Agulhas Undercurrent at 800 m. S–ADCP and sea surface temperature (SST) satellite data confirmed the existence of the semi-permanent, lee-trapped, cyclonic eddy off Durban, associated with a well-defined northward coastal current between Park Rynie and Balito Bay. Analysis of three months (May–July 2005) of satellite SST and ocean colour data showed the shoreward core-boundary of the Agulhas Current (24 °C isotherm) to commonly be close to the coast along the KZN south coast, as well as between the Kei and Mbhashe rivers on the Transkei shelf. The Port St Johns–Waterfall Bluff cyclonic eddy was also frequently visible in these satellite data. Transient cyclonic eddies, which spanned 150–200 km of shelf, appeared to move downstream in the shoreward boundary of the Agulhas Current at a frequency of about once a month. These seemed to be break-away Durban eddies. Data collected by ADCP moorings deployed off Port Edward in 2005 showed that these break-away eddies and the well-known Natal Pulse are associated with temporary northward countercurrents on the shelf, which can last up to six days. It is proposed that these countercurrents off Port Alfred, East London and Port St Johns assist sardine to swim northwards along the Transkei shelf against the Agulhas Current, but that their progress north of Waterfall Bluff is dependent on the arrival of a transient, southward-moving, break-away Durban cyclonic eddy, which apparently sheds every 4–6 weeks, or on the generation of a Natal Pulse. This passage control mechanism has been coined the ‘Waterfall Bluff gateway’ hypothesis. The sardine run survey in June–July 2005 was undertaken in the absence of a cyclonic eddy on the KZN south coast, i.e. when the ‘gate’ was closed.     

Does the invisible hand have a green thumb? Incentives, linkages, and the creation of wealth out of industrial waste in Victorian England

'Loop closing', that is, the creation of waste recycling linkages between different industries, has been hailed as a means of simultaneously achieving improved economic and environmental performance. As a result of the widespread assumption that traditional market incentives and institutions are not conducive to such an outcome, however, there remains a fair amount of scepticism as to what the capacity of business self-interest to promote this behaviour actually is. This article challenges the dominant negative perspective by discussing by-product development in one of the most market-oriented societies in human history, Victorian England. Building on nineteenth and early twentieth century writings on the topic, as well as a more detailed analysis of the development of valuable by-products from highly problematic iron and coal gas production residuals, a case is made that the search for increased profitability within the context of private property rights often simultaneously promoted economic and environmental progress in the long run, as well as on different geographical scales.