The application of range of variability approach to the assessment of a check dam on riverine habitat alteration

This report uses the intermediate disturbance hypothesis to assess the influence of constructing a check dam on river environment. HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS programs were used to generate hydraulic parameters such as flow discharge, water depth, velocity, water surface width and sediment discharge. Indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA) and indicator of habitat alteration (IHabA) were used to evaluate the flow and habitat conditions before and after check dam construction. The range of variability approach was used to calculate the degree of hydrologic alteration for each IHA, degree of habitat alteration and overall alteration for IHabA. Variability of river habitats before and after check dam construction was contrasted. Alteration became larger the closer to the dam body. An assessment method for check dam construction is offered which does not require ecological investigation data and combines ecology concepts and hydraulics.     

Advances in separating effects of climate variability and human activity on stream discharge: An overview

Separating effects of climate change (ΔQ^c) and human activity (ΔQ^h) on stream discharge at the watershed scale is needed for developing adaptive measures to climate change. However, information is scarce in existing literature regarding whether such separating is feasible and whether reliable results can be produced. The objectives of this overview were to: (1) compare currently-used methods; (2) assess assumptions and issues of the methods; and (3) present a generic framework that overcomes possible issues. Based on the overview of fifteen recent representative studies, two methods can be used to estimate absolute magnitudes of ΔQ^c and ΔQ^h, while another method can be used to distinguish relative magnitudes of ΔQ^c versus ΔQ^h only. Because the methods’ fundamental assumptions about baseline versus altered period, water storage change and deep groundwater loss, precipitation-runoff relationship, hysteresis influence of human activity, and record of time series can seldom be satisfied for many watersheds, it is more realistic and practical to distinguish relative effects than to estimate absolute magnitudes of ΔQ^c and ΔQ^h. Moreover, a generic framework was presented for gauged watersheds with negligible groundwater loss, aiming to avoid misuse of the methods in practice.     

利用损伤力学模型研究地震前兆现象

在地震等灾变破坏发生之前会出现一定的前兆现象,本文通过损伤力学模型,运用数值计算的方法对此进行了研究．从计算结果可以看到,在灾变破坏发生之前,由损伤所释放的能量(能量释放)和加卸载响应比值Y都发生了异常明显的变化,这表明二者具有相同的物理机制,在一定程度上都能够较为定量地刻画出系统的损伤演化过程．如果把二者相结合则可能对地震等灾变破坏做出更为准确的预测,本文结合实际震例对此也进行了一定的研究．     

论大地构造学的发展

大地构造学是研究地球物质在时间和空间演化的学问,是构造地质学的一门重要的分支学科,是一门涉及知识面很宽的学问.大地构造学需要朝定型、定向、定时、定位和定量的研究方向前进,需要通过"行万里路,读万卷书",经过长期的知识积淀才可能进行扎实的研究,以便逐渐接近科学的真理.槽台假说是一种过时的认识.板块构造学说起源于海洋地球物理调查,它是一个仍在继续发展中的大地构造学说,强调各个岩石圈板块是以水平运移为主的,但是其动力学机制则至今尚未完全解决,仍在探索之中.     

同时检测监测网的异常形变和粗差

粗差干扰影响形变分析成果的质量，以往都是粗差与异常变形分开来检测，即对每一期观测锡除粗差后再进行平差，然后利用两期或多期平差结果进行形变分析，这两步是重复的，为此，从位移观测方程入手，根据粗差检测与异常形变检测相似的特点，提出将粗差与异常形变同时检测，根据二者的不同特点，将它们区分开的新思路。通过算例分析比较了拟准检定法、假设检验法及相关抗差估计方案的检测效果，结果表明拟准检定法具有比其它两种方法实施简单、定位准确的优点，同时验证了这种思路的可行性。     

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卡尔曼滤波模型误差的识别

本文在简述卡尔曼滤波模型基础上讨论了模型误差的检验和估计问题,提出了检验卡尔曼滤波模型误差显著性的几种统计假设检验方法,探讨并给出了估计模型误差的方法和公式。     

Pressure–temperature conditions of ongoing regional metamorphism beneath the Japanese Islands

We evaluate the pressure–temperature (P–T) conditions of ongoing regional metamorphism at the top of the oceanic crust of the subducted Pacific and Philippine Sea plates through a combination of phase diagrams and hypocenter distribution and based on the dehydration-induced earthquake hypothesis. The brute-force method was employed to find the best match thermal structure to link the hypocenter distribution and dehydration. The estimated thermal structure varies far from the values obtained from numerical simulation. Our estimates are consistent with the qualitative physical prediction for the variation of temperature in different subduction zones and provide quantitative constraints for the models.In northeastern Japan, the P–T path for the top of the oceanic crust turns to the high-T side at a depth of around 90 km. The depth corresponds to the location of the volcanic front and an active convection of the wedge mantle below this depth is suggested. Our computations also reveal the effect of an exceptional scenario beneath the Kanto region. The temperature in the Kanto region, where the cold lid of the Philippine Sea plate prevents heating by the return-flow of mantle wedge above, is much lower than that of northeastern Japan. The subduction of younger Philippine Sea plate leads to a higher-temperature in the oceanic crust. In the central Shikoku region, the thermal structure exhibits high-T/P nature. Heating by shear deformation can explain the high-T/P path in the depth range from 20 to 35 km. The Kyushu area shows moderate type T/P path reaching up to eclogite facies conditions. In the Kii and central Shikoku region, the thermal structure exhibits high-T/P nature. However, the absolute values for the areas seem to have problem in physical context. Our results has risen the significance of sediment subduction in the southwest Japan and requirement for further improvements in this technique including the aspect of variation of the bulk composition of the subducted material.     

地壳波浪状镶嵌构造学说撮要

本文阐发了波浪状镶嵌构造学说的要义。在对学说的创立和发展做了简要的回顾之后,着重阐述了学说发展的现状,并对其今后发展的广阔前景及有待解决的问题也进行了概略的讨论。     

Assessing the South African sardine resource: two stocks rather than one?

Sardine Sardinops sagax distributed off the west and south coasts of South Africa have traditionally been assumed to comprise a single well-mixed stock for assessment and management purposes. New research, however, lends weight to the possibility of two stocks in this region. A precautionary management approach thus needs to consider the impact of management decisions on the hypothesised two individual stocks as well as on the resource as a whole. As a first step in this process, Bayesian assessments of South African sardine are presented, which compare results for the traditional single-stock hypothesis with those that follow from a new two-mixing-stock hypothesis. Recruits from the west stock are assumed to move to and remain part of the south stock in annual pulses of varying size. This movement is estimated to be appreciable, and to take place from a substantially more productive west stock to the south stock. This immigration makes a greater contribution to the south-stock biomass than do years of above-average south-stock recruitment. Importantly, this two-mixing-stock hypothesis is shown to be consistent with the data available. Further alternative sardine stock-structure hypotheses suggested by the most recent data are discussed.