Constraints of Mantle and Crustal Sources Interaction during Orogenesis of Pre- and Post-collision Granitoids from the Northern Arabian-Nubian Shield: A Case Study from Wadi El-Akhder Granitoids,Southern Sinai,Egypt

The Egyptian older and younger granitic rocks emplaced during pre- and post-collision stages of Neoproterozoic Pan-African orogeny, respectively, are widely distributed in the southern Sinai Peninsula, constituting 70% of the basement outcrops. The Wadi El-Akhder, southwestern Sinai, is a mountainous terrain exposing two granitoid suites, namely the Wadi El-Akhder Older Granites (AOG) and the Homra Younger Granites (HYG). The AOG (granodiorites with subordinate tonalite compositions) have geochemical characteristics of medium-K calc-alkaline, metaluminous to mildly peraluminous granitoids formed in an island-arc environment, which are conformable with well-known Egyptian older granitoids rocks, whereas the HYG display calc-alkaline to slightly alkaline nature, peraluminous syeno-, monzogranites and alkali feldspar granites matching well those of the Egyptian younger granites. With respect to the AOG granitoids, the HYG granites contain lower Al2O3, FeO*, MgO, MnO, CaO, TiO2, Sr, Ba, and V, but higher Na2O, K2O, Nb, Zr, Th, and Rb. The AOG are generally characterized by enrichment in LILE and LREE and depletion in HFSE relative to N-MORB values (e.g., negative Nb and Ta anomalies). The geochemical features of the AOG follow assimilation-fractional crystallization (AFC) trends indicative of extensive crustal contamination of magma derived from a mantle source. The chemical characteristics of the AOG are remarkably similar to those of subduction-related granitoids from the Arabian-Nubian Shield (ANS). The compositional variations from monzogranites through syenogranites to alkali feldspar granite within HYG could not be explained by fractional crystallization solely. Correlating the whole-rock composition of the HYG to melts generated by experimental dehydration melting of meta-sedimentary and magmatic rocks reveals that they appear to be derived by extended melting of psammitic and pelitic metasediments, which is similar to the most of younger granitic suites in the ANS.     

静压桩承载力时间效应的研究进展

由于静压桩沉桩后桩周土重塑,静压桩承载力表现出随着休止期的延长而增长的特性。本文从静压桩沉桩后桩周土体内孔隙水消散固结的角度出发,对静压桩承载力时间效应的理论和试验分别进行归纳,结合孔隙水消散路径及固结模型,对桩周土体初始超静孔隙水压力大小及其分布特征进行总结,分析承载力各种测试方法的优缺点,对静压桩承载力的时效性进行深化研究,并探讨了不同地质条件、不同桩的类型对休止期内静压桩承载力的影响,进一步对基于实测数据得出的经验公式进行总结。讨论了基于不同本构关系模型的应力场及位移场解答和沉桩后孔隙水压力消散解答,在此基础上总结了桩基极限承载力理论公式;探讨了黏性土、砂土条件下,考虑超固结比、不排水抗剪强度和塑性指数比对桩基极限承载力系数A的影响,在此基础上归纳了桩基极限承载力经验公式。建议在经验公式基础上设置多重参数,以提升经验公式的精确度,并完善对不同桩、土类型的参数解答;利用BP神经网络,导入静压桩承载力相关参数,以得到针对不同地质条件、桩型、休止期的承载力最优解。     

热带气旋西行造成的远距离降雨特征分析

2018年7月27~28日凉山州地区出现了持续性的强降水天气过程,本文运用水平分辨率为1°×1°的NECP6小时再分析资料、新型监测资料及常规观测资料进行分析。发现此次过程不同于常规的降水过程,环流背景上受副高外围的东南气流和热带气旋形成的东风波倒槽共同作用形成的急流轴影响,为降水地提供充足的水汽和能量补充,从而形势上形成了热带气旋远距离降水,同时副热带高压的稳定维持也阻挡了高原上的低值系统快速东移,使得降水机制长时间停滞,对降水地造成影响。     

油气包裹体在油气地质研究中的应用--概念、分类、形成机制及研究意义

油气包裹体己成为油气成藏研究的有力工具,在划分油气运移充注期次、确定油气藏的形成时间、反映油气的成熟度及来源等方面均有重要的应用价值。近年来,利用油气包裹体及其共生的盐水溶液包裹体估算油气藏形成时的pVT条件是油气包裹体研究中的一个新热点,它为更准确地计算油气藏形成的温度一压力条件提供了一种独立的、更准确的技术手段。研究表明,包裹体岩相学和流体体系的热力学研究仍将是今后的发展重点。油气包裹体的pVT模拟技术尚处于初始阶段,两种软件（VTFlinc和FIT）的准确性和精确性虽有待进一步提高,但已经成为今后一个重要的发展方向。     

库车坳陷克拉2气田异常流体压力演化史

根据克拉2气田现今实测地层压力分析了异常高压发育的特征,并通过流体包裹体测试求取包裹体形成时期的古压力。计算结果表明:下白垩统和古近系库姆格列木群砂岩储层在距今8～6Ma(康村组沉积期末)时,古压力系数大致为1.09～1.18,发育过剩压力为4.6～9.6MPa的异常高压。在此基础上,以古、今压力数据为约束条件,利用数值模拟技术定量恢复出下白垩统与侏罗系异常流体压力的演化历史。研究发现:下白垩统储层流体压力经历了沉积型异常流体压力形成发展(白垩纪-库车组沉积期末)和沉积型异常流体压力萎缩—构造挤压型异常流体压力孕育(库车组沉积期末至今)两个阶段。康村组沉积早期沉积型超压开始出现,库车组沉积期末达到顶峰,过剩压力达40～50MPa;此后,在沉积型超压萎缩—构造挤压型超压孕育过程的耦合下,过剩压力曾降至25～30MPa,更新世起超压略有升高。侏罗系流体压力演化较为简单,吉迪克组沉积期开始出现超压,至库车组沉积期末达到高峰,此后异常高压逐渐萎缩。在克拉2气田的主要成藏时期(距今3～1Ma),烃源岩较储层具有更高的异常压力,源—储压力差为10～30MPa。     

长江流域蒸发皿蒸发量的区域变化特征及影响因素

基于长江流域148个气象站1980—2017年的蒸发皿观测数据,将旋转经验正交函数（REOF）和模糊C均值聚类（FCM）相结合,对流域蒸发皿蒸发量（PE）进行分区,然后运用Modified Mann-Kendall检验和多元逐步回归等方法,分析各子区域PE的变化特征并识别其主要影响因子。结果表明：1) REOF的前4个空间模态显示流域PE存在5个主要的异常敏感区,基于这4个空间模态,流域PE在空间上可划分为9个子区域。2）在年尺度上,各区PE呈不同程度的增加趋势,其中中部盆地区上升速率最大（111.28 mm/10 a）,西部高原区上升速率最小（12.5 mm/10 a）;而在季节尺度上,秋、冬季流域PE呈显著上升趋势,春、夏季PE的变化具有明显的区域差异性,部分地区PE为下降趋势。3）影响PE变化的主要因子因地而异,但大多子区域的PE变化与平均气温和饱和水汽压差的变化显著相关。     

基于孔压静力触探(CPTU)测试的连云港海相粘土前期固结压力确定方法研究

首先回顾了基于孔压静力触探(CPTU)测试确定前期固结压力的方法,通过连云港海相粘土场地进行的CPTU试验资料,以室内固结试验得到的前期固结压力作为参考值评估了经验方法预测前期固结压力的有效性。最简单的方法是直接建立前期固结压力和净锥尖阻力的关系,同时也是最有效的方法。     

The conservation patterns of grassland ecosystem in response to the forage-livestock balance in North China

Being a key ecological security barrier and production base for grassland animal husbandry in China,the balance between grassland forage supply and livestock-carrying pressure in North China directly affects grassland degradation and restoration,thereby impacting grassland ecosystem services.This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal variation in grassland vegetation coverage,forage supply,and the balance between grassland forage supply and livestock-carrying pressure from 2000 to 2015 in North China.We then discuss the spatial pattern of grassland ecological conservation under the impacts of grassland degradation and restoration,and livestock-carrying pressure.Over the last 16 years,the total grassland area in North China decreased by about 16,000 km2,with vegetation coverage degraded by 6.7％ of the grasslands but significantly restored by another 5.4％ of grasslands.The provisioning of forage by natural grassland mainly increased over time,with an annual growth rate of approximately 0.3 kg/ha,but livestock-carrying pressure also increased continuously.The livestock-carrying pressure index without any supplementary feeding reached as high as 3.8.Apart from the potential livestock-carrying capacity in northeastern Inner Mongolia and the central Tibetan Plateau,most regions in North China are currently overloaded.Considering the actual supplementary feeding during the cold season,the livestock-carrying pressure index is about 3.1,with the livestock-carrying pressure mitigated in central and eastern Inner Mongolia.Assuming full supplementary feeding in the cold season,livestock-carrying pressure index will fall to 1.9,with the livestock-carrying pressure alleviated significantly in Inner Mongolia and on the Tibetan Plateau.Finally,we propose different conservation and development strategies to balance grassland ecological conservation and animal husbandry production in different regions of protected areas,pastoral areas,farming-pastoral ecotone,and farming areas,according to the grassland ecological protection patterns.     

Machine learning for pore-water pressure time-series prediction: Application of recurrent neural networks

Knowledge of pore-water pressure(PWP)variation is fundamental for slope stability.A precise prediction of PWP is difficult due to complex physical mechanisms and in situ natural variability.To explore the applicability and advantages of recurrent neural networks(RNNs)on PWP prediction,three variants of RNNs,i.e.,standard RNN,long short-term memory(LSTM)and gated recurrent unit(GRU)are adopted and compared with a traditional static artificial neural network(ANN),i.e.,multi-layer perceptron(MLP).Measurements of rainfall and PWP of representative piezometers from a fully instrumented natural slope in Hong Kong are used to establish the prediction models.The coefficient of determination(R^2)and root mean square error(RMSE)are used for model evaluations.The influence of input time series length on the model performance is investigated.The results reveal that MLP can provide acceptable performance but is not robust.The uncertainty bounds of RMSE of the MLP model range from 0.24 kPa to 1.12 k Pa for the selected two piezometers.The standard RNN can perform better but the robustness is slightly affected when there are significant time lags between PWP changes and rainfall.The GRU and LSTM models can provide more precise and robust predictions than the standard RNN.The effects of the hidden layer structure and the dropout technique are investigated.The single-layer GRU is accurate enough for PWP prediction,whereas a double-layer GRU brings extra time cost with little accuracy improvement.The dropout technique is essential to overfitting prevention and improvement of accuracy.     

河南夏季高温日数的时空分布特征及500 hPa环流型

对河南省40个代表站1961-2005年夏季≥35℃高温日数进行经验正交函数(EOF)展开分析,结果显示,前3个典型场基本能反映河南夏季高温日数分布的主要特征,前3个模态的累积方差贡献率达85%.据此,得出河南夏季≥35℃高温日数的时空分布类型为全省一致型、西北至东南差异型和西南至东北差异型.第一模态对应的时间系数序列的变化幅度最大,第二模态对应的时间系数序列的变化幅度比前一个时间序列要小.第一模态的时间系数演变显示,河南夏季高温日数平均呈减少趋势,且存在2～4 a、8～14 a的周期变化,目前河南夏季高温日数正处于偏多状态中.应用逐日20时500 hPa ECMWF北半球格点资料,对1991-2005年河南典型的大面积持续高温下的环流形势进行普查、分类,分别求各种类型下的环流平均场,从而得到河南省高温的两种环流型,即贝加尔湖高压型和副热带高压型.