论地震数值预报——关于我国地震预报研究发展战略的思考

随着中国工业化和社会现代化进程的加快 ,中国城市化进程必将进一步加速。如何减轻地震灾害的问题正变得日益严峻。尽管地震预测是一个举世公认的国际性科学难题 ,但在强化各种减轻地震灾害措施的同时 ,仍须大力推进地震预测研究。为此 ,需要打破长期徘徊在以地震前兆异常监测为基础的经验性预测局面 ,把注意力尽快转向研究以动力学为基础的数值预报。以GPS为代表的空间对地观测技术 ,岩石圈巨型高分辨率宽频带流动地震台阵观测技术以及数值模拟技术已经为地震数值预报研究提供了前所未有的技术基础。以地震数值预报为目标的GPS阵列地壳形变连续观测 ,高分辨率地壳上地幔结构探测 ,地壳动力学 ,地震孕育和破裂过程的理论、模拟试验和实际观测 ,数据同化和计算软件的开发应成为今后研究的重点。现在的问题是 ,需要积极借助数值天气预报的经验 ,强化多学科 ,多部门的组织协调 ,尽早在有条件的地区开展地震动力学数值预报的科学试验。地震数值预报研究必将极大地促进中国地震科学基础研究和地震预报的进一步发展。     

Crustal structure beneath the Songpan—Garze orogenic belt

The Benzilan-Tangke deepseismic sounding profile in the western Sichuan region passes through the Song-pan-Garze orogenic belt with trend of NNE.Based on the travel times and the related amplitudes of phases in the record sections,the 2-D P-wave crustal structure was ascertained in this paper.The velocity structure has quite strong lateral variation along the profile.The crust is divided into 5layers,where the first,second and third layer belong to the upper crust,the forth and fifth layer belong to the lower crust.The low velocity anomaly zone gener-ally exists in the central part of the upper crust on the profile,and it integrates into the overlying low velocity basement in the area to the north of Ma‘erkang.The crustal structure in the section can be divided into 4parts:in the south of Garze-litang fault,between Garze-Litang fault and Xianshuihe fault,between Xianshuihe fault and Longriba fault and in the north of Longriba fault,which are basically coincided with the regional tectonics division.The crustal thickness decreases from southwest to northeast along the profile,that is ,from62km in the region of the Jinshajiang River to 52km in the region of the Yellow River.The Moho discontinuity does not obviously change across the Xianshuihe fault basesd on the PmP phase analysis.The crustal average velocity along the profile is lower,about 6.30 km/s.The Benzilan-Tangke profile reveals that the crust in the study area is orogenic.The Xianshuihe fault belt is located in the central part of the profile,and the velocity is positive anomaly on the upper crust,and negative anomaly on the lower crust and upper mantle.It is considered as a deep tectonhic setting in favor of strong earthquake‘s accumulation and occurrence.     

Aseismic negative dislocation model and deformation analysis of crustal horizontal movement during 1999——2001 in the northeast margin of Qinghai-Xizang block

Through numerical simulation for GPS data, aseism/c negative dislocation model for crustal horizontal movement during 1999-2001 in the northeast margin of Qinghai-Xizang block is presented, combined with the spatial distri-bution of apparent strain field in this area, the characteristics of motion and deformation of active blocks and their boundary faults, together with the place and intensity of strain accumulation are analyzed. It is shown that: a) 9 active blocks appeared totally clockwise motion from eastward by north to eastward by south. Obvious sinistral strike-slip and NE-NEE relative compressive motion between the blocks separated by Qilianshan-Haiyuan fault zone was discovered; b) 20 fault segments (most of them showed compression) locked the relative motion between blocks to varying degrees, among the total, the mid-east segment of Qilianshan fault (containing the place where it meets Riyueshan-Lajishan fault) and the place where it meets Haiyuan fault and Zhuanglanghe fault, more favored accumulation of strain. Moreover, the region where Riyueshan-Lajishan fault meets north boundary of Qaidam block may have strain accumulation to some degree, c) Obtained magnitude of block velocities and locking of their boundaries were less than relevant results for observation in the period of 1993-1999.     

Petrogenesis of the Ulsan carbonate rocks from the south-eastern Kyongsang Basin, South Korea

Abstract The petrogenesis of the Ulsan carbonate rocks in the Mesozoic Kyongsang Basin of South Korea, which have previously been interpreted as limestone of Paleozoic age, is reconsidered in the present study. Within the Kyongsang Basin, a small volume of carbonate rocks, containing a magnetite deposit and spatially associated ultramafic rocks, is surrounded by sedimentary, volcanic and granitic rocks of the Mesozoic age. The simple cross‐cutting relationships and other outcrop features of the area indicate that the carbonate rocks are an intrusive phase and younger than the other surrounding Mesozoic rocks. The Ulsan carbonates have low concentrations of rare earth elements (REE) and trace elements with the carbon and oxygen isotope values in the range of δ¹³C_PDB = 2.4 to 4.0‰ and δ¹⁸O_SMOW = 17.0 to 19.5‰. Outcrop evidence and geochemical signatures indicate that the Ulsan carbonates were formed from crustal carbonate melts, which were generated by the melting/fluxing of crustal carbonate materials, caused by the emplacement‐related processes of alkaline A‐type granitic rocks. Compared to typical mantle‐derived carbonatites associated with silica‐undersaturated, strongly peralkaline systems, the relatively small size and geochemical characteristics of the Ulsan carbonates reflect carbonatite genesis in a silica‐saturated, weakly alkali intrusive system. Major deep‐seated tectonic fractures formed by the collapse of the cauldron or the rift system associated with the opening of the East Sea (Japan Sea) might have facilitated the ascent of the crustal carbonate melts.     

盆地岩石圈结构与油气成藏及分布

本文综述了大陆岩石圈研究现状和克拉通盆地、裂谷盆地和前陆盆地的岩石圈结构特征,指出在古裂谷、褶皱带或区域性深断裂等陆壳构造薄弱带上发育起来的多期叠合盆地,具有很好的含油气前景。大型含油气盆地往往存在地幔上隆、地壳减薄和地壳内低速层,盆地基底沉降与盖层沉积厚度较大。适度的后期构造活动改造和岩浆活动有利于沉积盆地内油气生成与保存。     

Lower crustal melting and the role of open-system processes in the genesis of syn-orogenic quartz diorite–granite–leucogranite associations: constraints from Sr–Nd–O isotopes from the Bandombaai Complex, Namibia

The Bandombaai Complex (southern Kaoko Belt, Namibia) consists of three main intrusive rock types including metaluminous hornblende- and sphene-bearing quartz diorites, allanite-bearing granodiorites and granites, and peraluminous garnet- and muscovite-bearing leucogranites. Intrusion of the quartz diorites is constrained by a U–Pb zircon age of 540±3 Ma.

Quartz diorites, granodiorites and granites display heterogeneous initial Nd- and O isotope compositions (_{Nd (540 Ma)}=−6.3 to −19.8; δ¹⁸O=9.0–11.6‰) but rather low and uniform initial Sr isotope compositions (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_initial=0.70794–0.70982). Two leucogranites and one aplite have higher initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.70828–0.71559), but similar initial _Nd (−11.9 to −15.8) and oxygen isotope values (10.5–12.9‰). The geochemical and isotopic characteristics of the Bandombaai Complex are distinct from other granitoids of the Kaoko Belt and the Central Zone of the Damara orogen. Our study suggests that the quartz diorites of the Bandombaai Complex are generated by melting of heterogeneous mafic lower crust. Based on a comparison with results from amphibolite-dehydration melting experiments, a lower crustal garnet- and amphibole-bearing metabasalt, probably enriched in K₂O, is a likely source rock for the quartz diorites. The granodiorites/granites show low Rb/Sr (<0.6) ratios and are probably generated by partial melting of meta-igneous (intermediate) lower crustal sources by amphibole-dehydration melting. Most of the leucogranites display higher Rb/Sr ratios (>1) and are most likely generated by biotite-dehydration melting of heterogeneous felsic lower crust. All segments of the lower crust underwent partial melting during the Pan-African orogeny at a time (540 Ma) when the middle crust of the central Damara orogen also underwent high T, medium P regional metamorphism and melting. Geochemical and isotope data from the Bandombaai Complex suggest that the Pan-African orogeny in this part of the orogen was not a major crust-forming episode. Instead, even the most primitive rock types of the region, the quartz diorites, represent recycled lower crustal material.     

Tectonic controls on metamorphism, partial melting, and intrusion: timing and duration of regional metamorphism and magmatism in the Ni de Massif, Turkey

Mafic high-pressure granulite, eclogite and pyroxenite xenoliths have been collected from a Mesozoic volcaniclastic diatreme in Xinyang, near south margin of the Sino-Korean Craton (SKC). The high-pressure granulite xenoliths are mainly composed of fine-grained granoblasts of Grt+Cpx+Pl+Hbl±Kfs±Q±Ilm with relict porphyritic mineral assemblage of Grt+Cpx±Pl±Rt. P–T estimation indicates that the granoblastic assemblage crystallized at 765–890 °C and 1.25–1.59 GPa, corresponding to crustal depths of ca. 41–52 km with a geotherm of 75–80 mW/m². Calculated seismic velocities (V_p) of high-pressure granulites range from 7.04 to 7.56 km/s and densities (D) from 3.05 to 3.30 g/cm³. These high-pressure granulite xenoliths have different petrographic and geochemical features from the Archean mafic granulites. Elevated geotherm and petrographic evidence imply that the lithosphere of this craton was thermally disturbed in the Mesozoic prior to eruption of the host diatreme. These samples have sub-alkaline basaltic compositions, equivalent to olivine– and quartz–tholeiite. REE patterns are flat to variably LREE-enriched (La_N/Yb_N=0.98–9.47) without Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu*=0.95–1.11). They possess 48–127 ppm Ni and 2–20 ppm Nb with Nb/U and La/Nb ratios of 13–54 and 0.93–4.75, respectively, suggesting that these high-pressure granulites may be products of mantle-derived magma underplated and contaminated at the base of the lower crust. This study also implies that up to 10 km Mesozoic lowermost crust was delaminated prior to eruption of the Cenozoic basalts on the craton.     

Geomechanical model for the post-Variscan evolution of the Permocarboniferous–Mesozoic basins in Northeast Germany

The Permocarboniferous basins in Northeast Germany formed on the heterogeneous and eroded parts of the Variscan orogene and its deformed northern foreland. Transtensional tectonic movements and thermal re-equilibration lead to medium-scale crustal fragmentation, fast subsidence rates and regional emplacement of large amounts of mostly acidic volcanics. The later basin formation and differentiation was triggered by reversals of the large-scale stress field and reactivation of prominent zones of weakness like the Elbe Fault System and the Rhenohercynian/Saxothuringian boundary that separate different Variscan basement domains in the area. The geomechanical behaviour of the latter plays an important role for the geodynamic evolution of the medium to large-scale structural units, which we can observe today in three dimensions on structural maps, geophysical recordings and digital models. This study concentrates on an area that comprises the southern Northeast German Basin, the Saale Basin, the Flechtingen High, the Harz Mountains High and the Subhercynian Basin. The presented data include re-evaluations of special geological and structural maps, the most recent interpretation of the DEKORP BASIN 9601 seismic profile and observations of exposed rock sections in Northeast Germany. On the basis of different structural inventories and different basement properties, we distinguish two structural units to the south and one structural unit to the north of the Elbe Fault System. For each unit, we propose a geomechanical model of basin formation and basin inversion, and show that the Rhenohercynian Fold and Thrust Belt domain is deformed in a thin-skinned manner, while the Mid-German Crystalline Rise Domain, which is the western part of the Saxothuringian Zone, rather shows a thick-skinned deformation pattern. The geomechanical model for the unit north to the Elbe Fault System takes account to the fact that the base of the Zechstein beneath the present Northeast German basin shows hardly any evidence for brittle deformation, which indicates a relative stable basement. Our geomechanical model suggests that the Permocarboniferous deposits may have contributed to the structural stiffness by covering small to medium scale structures of the upper parts of the brittle basement. It is further suggested that the pre-Zechstein successions underneath the present Northeast German basin were possibly strengthening during the Cretaceous basin inversion, which resulted in stress transfer to the long-lived master faults, as indicated for example by the shape of the salt domes in the vicinity of the latter faults. Contrary to this, post-Zechstein successions deformed in a different and rather complex way that was strongly biased by intensive salt tectonic movements.     

松潘-甘孜造山带地壳速度结构

位于川西地区的奔子栏——唐克深地震测深剖面以NNE走向穿越松潘——甘孜造山带．根据人工地震记录分析得到的震相走时和相关的振幅信息，确定了该剖面二维P波地壳速度结构．剖面的地壳结构可分为5层，其中第1，2，3层为上地壳；第4，5层为下地壳．上地壳中部普遍存在低速异常带，但龙日坝以北，这一低速带与其上覆的低速基底合为一体．同时，沿剖面的地壳速度结构具有较强的横向变化．据此，可将剖面分为4段，即甘孜——理塘断裂以南、甘孜——理塘断裂至鲜水河断裂、鲜水河断裂至龙日坝断裂和龙日坝断裂以北. 这与区域构造划分基本一致． 地壳厚度沿测线从南西向北东逐渐减薄，即从金沙江畔的62 km减小到黄河附近的52 km． 根据PmP震相分析，莫霍界面深度在鲜水河断裂两侧没有明显变化．全剖面的地壳平均速度较低，为6.30 km/s．奔子栏——唐克剖面揭示了该地区的造山带型地壳上地幔结构特征．鲜水河断裂带位于剖面的中部，该地区的上地壳速度为正异常，而下地壳和上地幔顶部存在负异常．笔者认为，这是一类有利于强震孕育和发生的深部构造环境．      

强震造成的活动地块地壳形变差异探讨

20 0 1年 11月 14日发生在昆仑山口西的 8 1级地震 ,在地表产生了长度大于 35 0km的破裂带 ,最大水平位移 6m左右 ,为左旋走滑断层。在昆仑山口西 8 1级地震周围不同活动地块内不同构造部位布设的GPS基准站对地震的响应存在明显的差异。其中位于柴达木活动地块内部的德令哈基准站在地震的当天观测到 7 5mm的同震位移 ,位于川滇活动地块西南边界带的下关基准站在震后 3d发生了 6 8mm以上的明显位移 ,而位于同一地块内部的昆明基准站和位于祁连山活动地块内的西宁基准站、位于拉萨活动地块内的拉萨基准站震时和震后都没有产生明显的位移。GPS基准站的观测资料表明 ,强震所处的活动地块和其相邻活动地块对强震有明显的响应 ,如果相隔一活动地块 ,则受强震的影响较小 ;在活动地块内 ,活动强烈的边界带或其它活动较强的部位对强震引起的地壳形变的响应明显大于活动强度较弱的部位 ;强震对相邻活动地块影响的差异 ,主要与强震所处活动地块运动时对其产生的作用方式的差异有关